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According to UMKO if our emissions don't peak by 2020, keeping global temperature rise under 3.7F (2C), would be impossible. Although 2C (3.7F) might not seem like a lot at first glance it is actually quite significant and if the emissions are limited it may even get worse. Even if we have our emissions peak by 2018 and have them shrink by 4% a year, we would still only have "50% chance of keeping warming below 2C". To at least attempt this we would probably have to start making efforts now to reduce our emissions, if we wait too long the situation will probably only get worse.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
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I agree. They need to do something about the carbon emissions before the effects become irreversible. We can already see that global warming is occurring; just look at the previous months' temperatures. It was still hot in October when it should have already been cold. I understand it's hard to try and "go green" but I think people should consider thinking about the future instead of the present.
Scientists want our emissions to peak around 2018, if not earlier, so that they will decline faster. However, even if we have our emissions peak in 2018, we would have to reduce our emissions by 4% afterward, giving us a 50% chance have keeping warming below 2C. This task of reducing emissions gets more difficult as our emissions peaks later. If it peaks later than 2025, it'll be "virtually impossible to stay under 2C."
I agree with Alexandra. There are people who only think about the present and live life day by day. I'm not saying that that is necessarily a bad thing, however in accordance to this blog, it is. They need to think about the future and its generations.
I'm not going to lie, this is a very difficult task, rallying up people to help the future is hard because most humans are only concerned with themselves. Their mentalities usually consist of "If it doesn't affect them, than why should they help?"
However, there is a possible solution to this selfishness. Policies to ensure a reasonable chance of remaining under 1.5C would involve "negative emissions" -sucking CO2 out of the air. This negative emissions is a form of geo-engineering will be needed to hit the 2C target.
What makes keeping temperatures below 2C so difficult is because
"If you reduced everything to zero immediately you'd still get about 1.3C because of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere."
Although geo-engineering may be a solution to reduce greenhouse, we cannot rely on it. We need to take action and be proactive if we want to save our planet.
I don't agree with the fact that staying under 2C will be virtually impossible. Now if you were to say it would take longer for global temperatures to decline to what we would consider "normal", then I would have to agree. Looking at global temperatures since before the extinction of dinosaurs, it can be seen that global temperatures can rise and drop over long periods of time. If and when we make this peak is what will determine how long it will take to reach "normal" temperatures, but by that time many species may be extinct and new ones thriving in the new environment (granted that it takes many generations for global temperatures to change).
Well.. then I think we SHOULD act now to reduce our emissions. And I don't mean the half *** efforts that some people have been putting in. I mean REALLY, changing technology and expanding (in some cases, creating) a public transit system. Cash for Clunkers was cool.. but we need to do more than just replace inefficient cars on the road.
An increase of 3.7F is actually very very drastic. In APES I learned that an increase of 1.5F would kill off 95% of Australia's famous Great Barrier Reef. Definitely not good. I agree with Britney. Cash for Clunkers was certainly a step in the right direction, but it was nowhere near what we need to be doing to curb our green footprint. We need to act now.
People should consider basic things that they do in their everyday lives that they can do to reduce carbon emissions. They should always think twice before leaving their heaters on when they don't need them, or even leaving their television sets on when not necessary.
Some people are even driving hybrid cars these days to reduce the amounts of gas fuels which enters our atmosphere.
Even though i also think that we need to act right now in order to stop global warming, I think that this will be a very difficult task. just like what Brian said, people dont really act unless it directly and immediately affects them. And i wonder how many people who are saying "we need to stop global warming right now!" (me included) will actually change their daily habits to benefit the earth.
Also even if we do stop now, i remember once hearing that our carbon emissions now will take 10 years to drift up into the atmosphere. using logic, that means that if we decrease our co2 emissions now, the global temperature will continue to climb until around 2020. And thats IF we decrease our emissions. People arn't going to change their business just for the environment. if a CEO is making money off of oil, then its very likely that he/she will continue to use oil to make money. They aren't going to change on a dime.
After taking APES last year it made me realize how serious global warming really is. There is so much more people could be doing and every little bit helps! It is time that we step up and start making big changes though, otherwise the temperature change will cause a negative chain reaction that will be felt all over our planet. We can only hope that our selfish human actions have not already damaged our earth beyond repair.
Not to mention it completely blows my mind that there are still people out there who honestly believe global warming isn't happening. I mean really how ignorant do you have to be to think that? There is evidence of it everywhere! (These opinions can even be seen in students at Aragon after reading through the environmental surveys we all took).
Conclusion: Do your part and help encourage others to do theirs as well.
ALthough the increase in tempurature may seem minimal, acutally that little 3 degrees is a very huge jump considering before humans, it took centuries for the temperature to increase that much. lets face it if your not part of the solution your part of the polution.. haha
I agree with sebastian because we can prevent all of this to happen if we think twice and do what we think is right. Or you never know the mayas coiuld be right and the world might end on 2012. So have in mind that we do have to do something about carbon emissions.
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