Mathematicians Daniel Abrams and Richard Wiener, suggest that the countries of Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland will religions' "will be driven toward extinction". The pair are authors of the paper titled, "A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation". (How confusing does that sound!)
However, this was presented to at the Dallas meeting of the American Physical Society.
Their data indicates that the population of people who are 'unaffiliated' is the fastest growing group. With 15% of the US falling into the category of the "nones". The two say that the Czech Republic has the majority of people who are unaffiliated with religion, but the Netherlands are predicted to rise from the current 40% to 70% by 2050.
What I found ridiculous was that Abrams commented saying that there are "two big assumptions based on sociology" that explain this extinction.
The first being that its more attractive to be apart of a majority rather than a minority, so when religious affiliation declines, people won't be interested to go to church anymore. What kind of nonsense it that? How are these MATHEMATICIANS going to predict that people who are devoted to their faith will one day just stop because everyone else is?
Then the second assumption is what Abram calls the "utility effect"; social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline.
I don't believe not practicing a religion is going to give you any sort of advantage in life. I'm not exactly the most religious person, but how is going to church going to hurt?
Does anybody oppose or agree?
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
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7 comments:
Being someone who doesn't have a set religion, but does find religion important in my life, i don't find it surprising that many people these days don't believe in a set religion. For me, i truthfully believe in god; however, science has made me question on how some things happen in our world. Science is such an intriguing topic that has shown that many of our religious beliefs may be wrong, but then again many of us rather believe that or religion is telling us the truth since they have been around for so long.
I find that people should actually find a religion that would fit them. Believing in a higher power and following a religion makes it easier for a person to live life, in my opinion, because one can be able to find common interest with other people and share these common interests. I believe in having a religion, but science will always be a thought in the back of my mind.
I don't find their first claim to be overly ridiculous, though I do see a few confounding factors that may be present. While the overall majority in a country might shift towards unaffiliated, if the majority of an individual community is affected, then they will still go to church. Also, what they're saying isn't exactly that religious people will just up and stop believing. It will be a generational change, in which children might be more exposed to unaffiliated statuses and take that on subconsciously.
As a person who does not affiliate myself with a religion, I would say that time would be the greatest benefit of unaffiliated status, though this, of course, varies from person to person and their commitments.
I'm not surprised that many people in those countries aren't religious. My grandparents came from Switzerland and Holland and were not religious until they were introduced to the Unitarian Church once they came to America. I also agree with Daniel about generations changing their views on religion. In the past I think it was more common for people to marry a person of the same religion or feel a pressure from their families to do so. Nowadays we are seeing more marriages where the bride and groom are coming from different cultures, religions and races. I myself am a product of a mixed-religion-and-race marriage.
To answer the question "Does following a religion give you any advantage in life?", I would say "yes and no". Religions teach many universal life lessons and rules that anyone would profit from following. Religion gives people a sense a hope and being. However, religious rules are also what turn people away. Many people don't feel that they would profit from living a life where their religion will not let them live how they want to. In today's society I feel that it is almost impossible to fully follow a religion without breaking some type of rule or custom frequently. -Sandy Frank
I think that there are different cultures in different societies; some of these are more religious than others. I find a few things interesting about this post. Namely, most of the countries listed are either countries with many immigrants or countries that were under Nazi control. I think that these may be more of the confounding variables Dan mentioned.
Immigrants often drop their religion in an effort to be more similar to the other citizens- who have often also halted their religion. I know from my family experience that many Jews who lived in Nazi Germany stopped practicing in order to avoid persecution and their descendants still refrain from practicing. I do not think that these tendencies can be separated from the mathematical evaluation.
The first time someone calls you a horse, you punch them in the nose. The second time someone calls you a horse, you call them a jerk. The third time someone calls you a horse, you think about getting a saddle. Seems like people are starting to call religion a horse and the mathematicians are telling people that it's a good time to invest in saddles.
Now a couple of quotes to show you which side of the fence I sit on.
"Truth does not demand belief. Scientists do not join hands every Sunday, singing, "yes gravity is real! I will have faith! I will be strong! I believe in my heart what goes up, up, up must come down. Amen!" If they did that, we would think they were pretty insecure about it." -Dan Barker
"I distrust those people who so well know what God wants them to do because I notice it always coincides with their own desires." -Susan B. Anthony
"It would be almost unbelievable, if history did not record the tragic fact, that men have gone to war and cut each other's throats because they could not agree what was to become of them after their throats were cut." -Walter P. Stacy
Just food for thought.
I find the claim that religion is going to be driven to extinction rather absurd. Religion is an extraordinarily powerful force, and oftentimes survives better as a minority than the majority. I may actually be more comfortable with religious people as a minority, as then religion is less apt to be corrupted by political concerns and such.
I dislike the word "religion." I am a devout Christian, but I would not describe myself as religious. To me, religion implies dogmas, laws, rituals, and adherence to a church's party line. I don't know about other religions, but Christianity in its purest form is about freedom from law. We have laws and rituals, but they are always secondary to our main objective: following God and loving our fellow man. I agree with Sandy, that the rules of religion are a detractor, but my "religion" is not about rules, so that is not an issue for me.
But I would consider Christianity a religion in the sense that there are basic creeds that form an outline for belief, and a community that functions as a body. I believe religion in this basic sense is immensely helpful for giving purpose in life, not to mention how it can work like a yeast to bring positive change to society (think the Civil Rights Movement).
Of course, religion can often have negative effects on a person and society. You can just look at the dogmatism and fanaticism that pervades many churches today, as well as in history. But it doesn't have to be this way. To be sure, I was much more fanatical and intolerant before I became a Christian than I am now. Religion can be poisonous, but it can also be a cure.
I agree with Bobby, and I agree with Jack in that religion cannot be exterminated. As long as it exists, it isn't exterminated, and I don't know of many feasible ways of exterminating a way of thought without:
A: Killing all believers outright (Does that sound realistic to you? I hope not).
B: Absolutely compelling evidence which proves it wrong beyond the doubt of anyone who would observe said evidence... And even so, I'm sure the most devout of believers (or followers of those believers) would still dismiss that evidence.
The assertion that it is more popular to be part of a majority than a minority does actually make a lot of sense, in terms of psychology (the explanation of which I will skip due to time issues). Just because people go to church doesn't necessarily make those people strong believers; just because most of the US is going to church doesn't necessarily mean that most of the US going to church believe strongly enough to continue going after most discontinue doing so. They may still carry that belief, but over time (say, generational time) the belief may fade.
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