What does this mean in the race? Romney does not have many choices and definitely wants to win Wisconsin and Iowa. Wisconsin is even the state that his running mate, Paul Ryan comes from. Whether or not the Republicans start appealing to familiarity (with Paul Ryan) is a question. Also a pro Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, have been rallying in the state of Wisconsin. As I noted last time, Wisconsin, hasn't been won by a Republican since 1984.
Iowa is another state that has been leaning to Obama that has been leaning more and more to Obama. Obama is leading by 8%. However unlike Wisconsin, Iowa was won by George Bush in the 2004 Presidential Race. Last year Iowa was won by Obama by 8% against McCain. Iowa does have a strong majority that support Obama, but it has been won by a Republican within the last decade.
This race is still Obama's race to lose. It can only get better in this coming week as many people were happy with what Obama had to say in the last debate. As long as he does mess up in the debate coming next week, he should have a near secured race. However, we can't count out Romney yet. Many people are disgruntled with the slow growing economy, and we know Romney has a strong record in economics. How important do you guys feel Wisconsin and Iowa are?
2 comments:
I think that both Wisconsin and Iowa are important states for the candidates to win, however the gap of
one percentage point as released by the PPP today shows an even tighter race in Iowa, much narrower than 8%. Another notable close race happening right now is in the battleground state of Ohio where
Rasmussen also reports a gap within only one percentage point. In both of these polls, even with the margin of error, the odds are closer than expect. Considering the fact that no GOP candidate has won the presidency without Ohio, I feel that it will once again be a key battleground state again during this election.
In response to Bruce's question, Wisconsin and Iowa are both worth electoral votes and would be in both candidate's best interest to win. Though a lot of the attention has been going to Ohio and Florida recently. As Alvin notes, Iowa could still potentially swing to Romney as the race there is not over till Election Day. Ohio is also an important state, but it is ridiculous to assume that Romney will be unable to win just because he does not get Ohio.
In my opinion, all states hold equal merit. Yes, some states have more electoral votes than others. But this country was founded under the idea that there should be a balance of power among the states and no state should be looked down as weaker than another one. Wisconsin and Iowa are interesting battleground states to look into, but I personally would not consider them the most important ones at the moment.
Based on recent polls, the race is still mostly even (though Gallup disagrees and says that Romney is in the lead). It is likely that most likely voters have already made up their minds. Any Independents are probably just voting Independent to appear impartial while favoring a particular candidate in mind, unless they are seriously going to vote for Gary Johnson.
In conclusion, you can keep a close eye on those states but I would not pay too much attention to the polls. There is a saying around the idea that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." Do not stay home just because if you support Romney and a poll says Obama has won Wisconsin. Go out and vote. Every individual makes a difference.
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