Considering
the video we watched in class today, I found this very amusing. Romney is
starting to catch up in the polls for the state of Wisconsin. A CNN poll that
came out today shows, Obama only ahead by 1% with 49% support Obama and 48%
supporting Romney. How does this reflect the tone of Presidential Race?
A 1% error is definitely within a sampling error that could come from non-stratification or response bias. However, Huffington Post's still has Wisconsin leaning to Obama. This brings up a curious thought of whether or not Obama is still much ahead of Romney in Wisconsin. Huffington Post Electoral Map. But if CNN's poll is correct, another 10 electoral votes are up for grabs.
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin against Senator McCain by a whopping 14%. And at the beginning of the season Obama was much more ahead of Romney. Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican since 1984 which Ronald Reagan steamrolled the election against Walter Mondale. (Reagan: 525 Mondale: 13). The apparent sway in Wisconsin is good news for Romney. However, this poll was given out without last night's debate which more people think Obama won than Romney.
The race is becoming a tighter and tighter race for the incumbent President. Obama still seems to be the perspective winner for the election, but Romney is starting to catch up. I'm curious to see how some of the borderline states will sway to after last nights debate. Will Romney's momentum continue from the Oct. 3 debate as seen from this Wisconsin Poll? Or did last night's debate give enough power to Obama to stop Romney's momentum?
1 comment:
Prior to Obama's massive win in Wisconsin, the state was getting very close to choosing a republican candidate. In 2000 the democrats won by a narrow .2% and then in 2004 the democrats only won by .4%. I suspect the same thing will happen this election. According to the Huffington Post Electoral Map, Romney's momentum in Wisconsin has really leveled off while Obama's support has been steadily rising. Being that Romney's momentum from the first debate has leveled off so much, Obama's success in the latest debate will definitely keep the state's rising support for him. Romney's going to have to do very very well if he wants to sway voters in Wisconsin
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