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| From Bureau of Labor Statistics |
The LBS report indicates that 114,000 non-farm jobs had been added, and yet as Forbes points out, this was "essentially in line, the big surprised was the drop in unemployment rate, which fell 30 basis points month over month and marks the lowest level in more than 40 months." Indeed, the Washington Exmainer's editorial analysis compared the lower unemployment rate to the inferior "McJobs" created under the Reagan administration, arguing that the 7.8 percent was "largely because of an increase in Americans settling for part-time work."
The Obama campaign received a much-needed boost in the aftermath of a stagnant debate performance; the president benefiting from more political capital.
In turn, Governor Romney dismissed the job growth, pointing out that "if not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent." As the Huffington Post reports, though, some skeptics have gone as far as to claim that the opportune drop in unemployment was backed by ulterior political motive.
NY Times columnist Joe Nocera took a dim view of such claims, dismissing them as "ludicrous." However, in yesterday's column, he conceded that the numbers were irregular. While a survey of businesses gave rise to the number 114,000, "Extrapolating from [a survey of 55,000 households], the bureau concluded that an additional 873,000 people had found work in September. It is this number that brought the unemployment rate from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent."
Thus, the validity of this trend will ultimately be revealed when this month's unemployment statics are released shortly before the presidential elections.
3 comments:
It seems strange that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would created spin to help one Presidential Candidate. These powerful bureaucrats have nothing to gain in helping whoever is currently in the White House. Their jobs are secure. However, it does still arise suspicion. The timing of this report was impeccable for Obama's campaign after, a fairly poor showing in the first debate. Also reading Nocera's article, many possibilities for the increase in jobs could come from part-time. That seems very likely as people will start to just grab any job they can actually get. In the end, these new statistics have no evidence of political gain. For Republicans, they'll have to suck it up and try to point out other flaws of Obama. For Democrats, good news, this Presidential Race just got a bit easier.
As Bruce mentioned, I highly doubt that these numbers are the result of deliberate manipulation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (whose statistics are compiled by non-partisan, professional bureaucrats). However, this does not make the drop in the unemployment rate a huge cause for celebration. As the Examiner article explains, "67 percent of the reported job gains that contributed to the reduction in the unemployment rate -- came from workers who had to take part-time jobs 'for economic reasons.'" Sure, they count as jobs, but these part-time occupations are unlikely to assuage the economic woes of struggling families. In fact, the drop in unemployment may just be an indication that people are becoming more despondent as their financial situations worsen.
Here is a good explanation of the statistics: http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-two-labor-market-surveys.html
The idea that the BLS manipulated the household survey results on behalf of Obama is of course deranged.
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