Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Poll: Things Look Good for Obama

In contrast to the article that Paige wrote about, this poll holds good news for Obama, who is gaining leads in key states won by George Bush in 2004: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, although he did lose ground in West Virginia. Even if their overall support is close, as shown in the 2000 election, what matters most are the electoral votes.

According to polls, in North Carolina, support for Obama vs McCain increased to 51%-47% from 49%-49%. In Nevada his support rose to 51%-46% from 50%-46%. In Virginia he remains ahead 54%-44%. In West Virginia he dropped down to 41%-53% from 44%-49%. But we all know how few electoral votes West Virginia gets anyways.

It seems that one reason for these changes is the fact that less than 1/3 of voters actually care enough about the Obama-Ayers terrorist connection for it to possibly affect their vote, according to polls. Considering this has been a focus of McCain's campaign, as a result McCain is not garnering as many supporters as he could. He needs to switch his focuses if he wants a better chance to secure North Carolina and Nevada, which are still within the margin of error, but it may be too late to change, and he can't undo his wasted time.

This is how I see McCain at the moment.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

fivethirtyeight.com gives obama a 93% chance of winning.

Intrade.com has obama at 85% (this isn't a poll site though, it's what people are betting on basically).

Kate Lin said...

Haha, nice picture, Kevin.

Yeah, it's a good sign that Obama's ahead in polls. But the other election (Bush & Gore) showed us that popular vote and polls may not always be the best indicator.

Hopefully the electoral college votes the way the population wants them to.

Kevin Lee said...

Thanks, I did it on paint :)