Monday, October 13, 2008

Reagan's 1980 Debate Surge

In an effort to debunk the idea that Reagan made a comeback in 1980 that might inspire hope for a McCain rally, Jon Cohen writes:

...there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan's breakthrough debate performance.

Of course, at that time Carter was the president with sub-30 percent approval ratings, and Reagan the relative outsider seeking to prove himself to be a "safe" choice.


Of course, being the only debate between the 2 major party candidates and having it on October 29th made it an even bigger deal than any one of three debates will be this cycle. Taken as a whole, however, I think they'll have the same impact: legitimizing the newcomer in a way that activates retrospective voting.

4 comments:

rachel s said...

I must agree. McCain has an edge on Obama as the more experienced candidate of the two, but these three debates have served to level the playing field. Obama, as the younger, more attractive, and more down-to-earth looking guy, has definitely benefitted from his multiple debate appearances. And he is an amazingly calm and collected public speaker. He didn't make any major blunders, he didn't stumble much, he didn't avoid questions (to the extent that Quale (sp?) did after being asked about what he would do first as president...), and he proved himself worthy of the position as President of the US, despite his lack of experience in comparison to McCain.

This entire Obama/McCain debate process reminds me so much of the Nixon/Kennedy debates: the more attractive, less experienced newcomer debating the, in my opinion, older, crankier looking guy, the playing field being leveled, etc.

Let's hope the election turns out the same (excuse the bias).

Jeff Yeh said...

Well you never know... this last presidential debate will be the one remembered most vividly by people just before the election. McCain may be behind but some event like a major blunder on Obama's side may be enough for McCain to deliver the coup de grace and win the debate, potentially the presidency as well. This however, seems very unlikely as Obama is such a great public speaker and is, I think, unlikely to mess up in these final stages. McCain doesn't have much to lose, since he's behind several points, so he may go all out while Obama tries to play it safe.

I'd have to disagree with Rachel when it comes to McCain's appearance. Yes, he's an old guy, but age shouldn't be that relevant right? People need focus less on McCain's/Obama's age and focus more on their policies. I also don't think he looks cranky... (That's such a strange word now that I think about it... Cranky... I think it sounds weird but maybe it's just me...) I personally like McCain better as a person. NOT his policies though. If it comes down to policy, I'd side with Obama any day. But as a person, I feel like McCain would be a much more capable president who would know what he's doing. Even if I am sick and tired of the republicans advocating his far greater experience, I have to admit that experience is...well... relatively important. (Moving off on a semi-related tangent, I still don't see why McCain would choose Governor Palin for his VP pick...aside from getting himself elected, that is. What does she have to offer to the white house? I really don't like her...) Anyways...If only he was a democrat. But oh well...

I'm definitely excited for this upcoming debate tomorrow. Go Obama!

rachel s said...

The reality is that appearance plays a major part in public perception of someone. If the are older, they are more likely to be thought of as certain stereotypes that go along with senior citizens, like being cranky (I like that word...). You may be sick and tired of people concentrating on age and stuff, but during debates especially, appearances can cost the election. And even if someone claims that they don't concentrate on appearance and only on the issues and policies of each candidates campaign, it is simply impossible to do such a thing. It's not in human nature.

PLUS, age is even more of an issue in this election because McCain might die in office, leaving Palin in charge (#%?!$@?!), which means the American people must be comfortable with President Palin. So age, again, plays a big role in this election.

Jeff Yeh said...

That is definitely true. Unfortunate. But definitely true. Nixon's disastrous debate in 1960 was, after all, largely due to his appearance when compared to a younger Kennedy. It really would be in human nature to judge by appearance and people would likely prefer not to side with the cranky (I like the word too... but, IMO, it's still weird!) old guy... America and its people are definitely too caught up by appearance. In this day and age, I agree everyone is at least somewhat swayed by the candidate's appearances to some degree or another... the media is everywhere, waiting for them to slip up (like Palin has so many times). It's not like the past in days before television existed anymore. back then, radio and a newspaper pictures were probably the most many people ever saw of the candidates themselves. We shouldn't be so caught up in appearances... but we are.

While normally I feel that discriminating against anyone for who they are just shouldn't be done... I might have to make an exception for this election. For this election maybe age does matter. (for McCain, at least...) He's old, but that doesn't mean he would be a bad president. (If only he had Obama's policies...that is..) Heck, his age might make him a pretty competent one...though i doubt we'll ever find out considering that it's pretty likely Obama is going to win. When his age DOES matter would be when you consider his VP choice. If only he had chosen someone who isn't a political liability, maybe less people would be hesitant to vote for him due to his old age. A President Palin might only be a heartbeat away if McCain is elected president.. and someone like Palin...as our Commander in Chief...would be...bad. Very Bad.