"A CNN/Time/ORC International poll indicates that 33% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are backing Romney, with 23% supporting Gingrich. The former Massachusetts governor's 10 point advantage over the former House speaker is down from a 19 point lead two weeks ago. According to the survey, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is at 16%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at 13%, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands at 6%."
Many say that Newt Gingrich has a new momentum unlike the others. What do you guys think? Will this primary be a game-changer?
3 comments:
I think it is too early to tell because these polls can change pretty quickly in just a few days. Although a 19-point lead is pretty great, I don't think that Romney has that much to worry about because 10-points is still very high. South Carolina is probably the state that determines who stays and who drops out. Romney is obviously going until the end, but I think it will be interesting to see who drops out and who stays in. We have seen Gingrich soar in the polls, and also drop in a matter of days so this sudden lead can either be a foresight for what is to come, or it can just be another poll.
While these new shifts do present a salient effect on each candidate's chance of being nominated, I'd say it's too early in the game to rule out any of the top three: Romney, Gingrich, and Paul. Romney will probably maintain his position as the "least bad" option of all of the GOP candidates and stick it out until the end--possibly winning the nomination--but Gingrich and Paul won't go down so easily. Furthermore, polls are not set in stone. In Romney's 1994 campaign for the Massachusetts Senate--a year that posed particular problems for the Democrats, priming Romney for a win--he was tied with opponent Robert F. Kennedy in the polls by Labor Day. Polls only shifted after Kennedy released adds criticizing Romney's record at the venture capitalist firm Bain. Independents all dropped Romney and voted for Kennedy, who eventually won by 17 points. Ultimately, I would not be surprised to see another significant shift before the GOP nomination is decided.
After watching the results of the South Carolina primary and seeing Gingrich win, there seems to be some truth to what Sabrina said about another significant shift before the nomination is decided. When I listened to Gingrich speak after his victory, he stopped attacking the other GOP candidates, but attacked Obama. Something Gingrich said in his speech that may get him in some trouble is that he continued to call Obama the "food stamp President." This food stamp remark has brought about a lot of critics. After South Carolina, Romney quickly went to Florida to campaign. Will Gingrich's momentum earn him a win? Will Romney win like he did in NH? Or will Santorum or Paul pull to victory? It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
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