Now, as the 2012 Republican contest has become bitter and brutal, Gingrich is reviving this term, and beginning to use it to characterize Romney. While he formerly referred to Romney as a "Massachusetts Moderate," Gingrich has recently used the term "liberal" to try and invoke the same detachment and weakness that Bush aimed for over twenty years ago.
The most recent polls for tomorrow's Florida primary show Mitt Romney in front of Gingrich 42 percent to 27 percent, a full 15 percentage points. Gingrich was once ahead, and this new label surely is intended to take some of Romney's support and regain his lead.
Another interesting comment from Gingrich is his assertion that he is the "legitimate heir to the Reagan movement," evoking the image of one of our nation's most conservative presidents in the hopes of getting more support from conservatives. Interestingly enough, Rick Santorum has been polling fairly well amongst conservatives. I think Gingrich hopes that if the two of them can hold on to enough votes, they can eliminate Romney's lead.
So, on the eve of the Florida primary, what do you guys think will happen in the next twenty-four hours? Will Gingrich's use of the"liberal" label cost Romney enough votes to lose? Will Romney be able to effectively refute these allegations and assuage voters that he will not be weak? Predictions for tomorrow?
3 comments:
I personally would not predict that Gingrich's new tactic will result in a loss for Romney tomorrow, although if he persists in the strategy, it may stick and consequently affect the other upcoming primaries. Assuming these polls are accurate, Gingrich and Santorum would have to steal votes from Romney in the following manner in order for Gingrich to win (of course I would be better able to articulate my point using mathematical inequalities than actual words):
If S+G are the percentage of Romney voters swayed to the Santorum or Gingrich camps yesterday/today, then 42-(S+G) < 27+G . I excluded Ron Paul since Gingrich and Santorum are the main focus of Alyssa's discussion.
I watched some footage from Romney's campaign today and he appears to be as strong and confident as usual; I don't think he'll lose roughly 9-10% of his Florida supporters to Gingrich that quickly.
I liked Alyssa's point about the "legitimate heir to the Reagan movement". Not only is this a general statement made by candidates who have previously held high offices or party positions ("I've been x and had y experience, therefore it's essentially 'my turn' to be our party's candidate"), but Gingrich is indeed attempting to draw that connection between Reagan and himself in the minds of voters.
I think that Gingrich's latest accusation will not be as effective as he hopes. All the negative attack adds that all the candidates have been doing have actually lessened their approval ratings. As a result, they have all fallen behind Obama in recent polls, and Obama hasn't really needed to do much other than sit back and enjoy (as he runs a country of course). The thing is, I think that the Republican candidates have kind of lost their way here. Instead of hammering Obama, they are hammering each other. All the candidates are trying to ensure that the others do not become the Republican nominee, but they forget that their is a general election still to come. Everything they do now will be remembered by the voters in the general election, so they really should start hammering Obama. Their adds should focus on how they differ from Obama so that way they don't tear themselves up from the inside. Don't get me wrong, I want them to keep doing what they are doing, but just my thought on how they should run a legitimate campaign.
In regards to Gingrich's remark about Romney, The only thing I really have to say is that Romney is definitely not a liberal. It is quite obvious to anyone who pays any attention to what he says. Romney is a moderate and that is a big difference.
I agree with Jeremy and Patrick - I highly doubt that Gingrich can do anything to sway Florida voters this close to the primary. In the future, however, Romney will need to address this issue (and the other insults Gingrich has or is planning to throw at him)sooner than later, in order to maintain a healthy lead and win critical conservative states. Perhaps he should take a leaf from Clinton's campaign and create a "War Room" of his own, to minimize the damage from mudslingers and critics.
On a side note, I find it interesting that the word "liberal" has come to have such a negative connotation with Republicans and moderate voters. According to Dictionary.com, "liberal" is an adjective used to describe someone "favorable to progress or reform," and its synonyms are "progressive," "broad-minded," and "unprejudiced." Hmmm... these really don't sound so bad after all...
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