In the Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney won by an 8-vote victory over Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses. Romney had received 30,015 votes vs. Santorum's 30,007 votes. More than 122,000 straw ballots were cast which is a new record for Iowa Republicans. Coming in third place was Ron Paul, and fourth was Gingrich. Also, coming in fifth was Texas Governor Rick Perry, who told supporters he would "return home to reassess his candidacy." In sixth place was Minnesota Representative Michele Bachman who told reporters she would continue her campaign.
With results like this, my question to you all is do you think from this point that certain candidates like Bachman and Gingrich should drop out of the presidential race now? Or, do you think if they continue their campaigns, they still stand a chance to win the Republican Presidential Candidate race?
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
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12 comments:
It is not necessary to win the Iowa caucus in order to get the nomination. In 2008, Huckabee won the Iowa caucus, but McCain, who came in fourth, eventually got the nomination. I think the Gingrich, who got over 13% of the vote, should definitely remain in the race and see what happens in New Hampshire next week. Bachmann actually just announced that she is dropping out of the race.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57352112-503544/michele-bachmann-drops-out-of-gop-race/
This was indeed the closest Iowa GOP caucus vote in the state's history. In response to your question, Jennifer, I think Gingrich should stay in the race for at least two more weeks. It seems that Republicans aren't warming up to his personality, but he is one of the party's top picks when prioritizing political experience over other qualities, and maybe he'll regain momentum. (I believe the polls last night also showed Romney as the favorite in terms of the economy, and Santorum as the favorite in terms of moral character). Bachmann, on the other hand, was right to suspend her campaign. Personally, I was annoyed with her constant use of glittering generalities, with phrases like "Well, I stand on the side of the American people" (a favorite of hers during the debates).
On another note, CNN reported last night that Herman Cain received a whopping 5 votes in Iowa -- interesting to hear he's still got some support!
This was a great caucus to watch. I greatly enjoyed myself watching as someone who has not spent a whole lot of money in Iowa came within eight votes of the winner, Mitt Romney, who has spent a considerable sum of money in Iowa. I know that I have said similar things to this in a different post, but I still can't get over it. Either Santorum has got some real personality, people just really don't like Romney. In answer to the question, I don't think Gingrich should drop out of the race yet. He came in fourth but at least he was in double digits. Bachman only had 5% of caucus goers vote for her (is it any wonder then why she dropped out). I think as long as you got within the two digit range, you will be relatively okay. Rick Perry for example is cutting it very close and seems to know it. His reassessing his campaign thing reminds me of Herman Cain (who should be congratulated on getting five votes total when he is not even running) when he suspended his campaign and never reentered the race. However, today Perry said that he is not taking himself out of the race and that he will still run so who really knows what is going on. I will say I expect he is very shaken. This is the first election that he has ever lost. He has to realize that the way he used to run his campaign, isn't going to work anymore so it probably is a good idea to just take a pit stop and then get back out and see what happens.
I agree with PJ's double-digit comment, and I do find last night's close race interesting considering that Rick Santorum "spent $12 in Iowa and Mitt Romney spent $30 million", as (I believe) Santorum humorously put it.
I'd like to pose a question: now that Bachmann is basically out of the race, who do you think will get her supporters?
My bet is that Bachmann's supporters will go to Rick Perry. Both Bachmann and Perry are extremely conservative and basically fundamentalist Christians. Santorum, although he's also very far right, seems to be a bit more moderate than Bachmann and Perry. If most of Bachmann's supporters do switch to Perry, then Perry will have made a very good decision staying in the race since the extra 5% of voters will make him much more of a contender for the nomination.
I think that Gingrich and Perry should drop out of the race based on general principle. But in terms of votes, I think Gingrich still has something of a chance by being in fourth place. Perry could have a chance if/when he gets Bachmann's supporters, but until that happens I don't think he'll have much hope.
Another interesting thing was Santorum's close second place, when he isn't supported by republicans in general anywhere near as much as Romney, or even Paul. I think this shows how Iowa doesn't necessarily reflect on the overall republican party, so Ron Paul probably still has a chance.
No mention of Paul? He was in a close 3rd from the percentage tie of Santorum and Romney.
While it is clear that the top three are the most likely to get the nomination, the large drop from Paul's 3rd place to Gingrich's 4th place is large 8 percent drop, marking the rest of the candidates least likely to get the nomination. It is now clear who the three front runners are now.
Before the Iowa caucus, it seemed as though Mit Romney and Newt Gingrich were the front runners for the GOP. Santorum's close second came as a surprise to me, and Gingrich's fourth was an ever bigger surprise. Like Merideth said, "it is not necessary to win the Iowa caucus in order to get the nomination," since it is only one state, but it is an indicator no matter how insignificant.
I am not as sure that the Iowa Caucus is "no big deal." Lots of voters are easily affected by the results of the caucus, and so the top two vote-getters, especially because of the close voting, will get a significant increase in popularity. Also, because the lesser vote-getters did not appear to be as popular, they are going to lose popularity with voters, because their supporters will feel that their vote is wasted if spent on someone who will not win.
Although the Iowa Caucus may play a large role in eliminating weaker competitors, it doesn't give a very trusty answer as to who will win the GOP nomination. Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus in 2008 but McCain still won the nomination overall. I really do not understand why some voters put their faith in candidates that just don't have any hope of winning. I really do not think Santorum will have the same momentum in South Carolina because he still doesn't have a large following and is now a prime target for the other GOP candidates. Either way, Mitt Romney still has a lot of work to do if he wants to be the Republican candidate.
I think this year's caucus is particularly interesting in that the close vote between Romney and Santorum doesn't lend itself to bandwagon-ing as easily--it wasn't a tie, but it's clear that Romney and Santorum really ended up quite neck-and-neck. With no "clear" result in that sense, it's still hard to discern a clear winner, thus reducing the chances of people jumping on a winning candidate's wagon. In terms of staying in the race, I like how Brian put it ("based on general principle, no, but..."), and would agree that there is "still hope" for the others.
Adding onto Anna's point, I feel like one could make the argument that both, not neither, Romney and Santorum created a bandwagon effect as a result of Tuesday's caucus. Santorum, who was never in the spotlight before a couple weeks ago, proved that he is indeed a real contender for the GOP nomination. Romney's 8-vote victory margin could also be perceived as, "No matter how close his opponents may get, he'll still come out on top," so we may soon see the electorate congregating around those two presidential hopefuls. The New Hampshire primary, assuming Romney maintains his 20-point lead over his nearest opponent until then, will certainly be more likely to engender a bandwagon effect.
Can't wait to see how the candidates will fare in tonight's debate
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