Saturday, February 20, 2010

Ron Paul victor of CPAC presidential straw poll?

On Saturday, Ron Paul won the annual Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll with 31 percent of the vote. The closest runner up, Gov. Mitt Romney, garnered a mere 22 percent of the vote. Paul's victory came as a surprise to many; in fact, when he was announced as the winner, the crowd responded with boos. Some contribute Ron Paul's victory to the large amount of Tea Party activists in attendance. With many at the conference citing "reducing the size of federal government" as a top concern, I personally think that Paul's victory is not that surprising. As Katie mentioned earlier, many at CPAC were much younger than the typical attendees. "54 percent of participants were between the ages of 18 and 25," so the straw poll was probably reflective of the younger voting pool.

While the straw poll is often used as a way to scout out future presidential nominees, the article said that "the announcement of Paul's win [is] a surprise victory unlikely to have a major impact on the 2012 presidential contest." I have to agree. I feel that the nature of the straw poll is not very reliable. Only 2,400 people voted out of the 10,000 people in attendance. Many expressed dissatisfaction with the candidates. I think that the large amount of non-response is not insignificant. The results are not reflective of the sentiments of the Republican party as a whole. However, I think it is important to note that many are discontent with the traditional Republican party. The "tea party" activists are making their voices heard, which could be significant in the next election.

1 comment:

Francis Wang said...

Ron Paul's not going to make it to the 2012 general election. He barely got any delegates in the 2008 primaries. Some other Republican is going to do a better job of appealing to the Tea Party movement and he'll lose any support that he might have had in that group.