Wednesday, October 12, 2011

"Inside the Fed Fight Over Bond Buys"

The article contained a summary of the minutes from the Sept. 20-21 meeting of the policymaking Federal Open Market committee, in which some federal officials often expressed dissent in some of the proposals made for the future.
In light of the substantial plan the committee made to "shift the Fed's $2.65 trillion portfolio of securities toward longer-term securities and more mortgage debt than previously planned", I mostly agree with the fact that it could help in the long-term due to a possible decrease in interest rates. The supporters of the plan probably have the debtors' interest in mind since they might think the debtors would be more open to spending if they know that they are given more time for the bonds to reach maturity and the banks may have more breathing room to lend money. The problem is the plan keeps most of the money out of circulation and reducing the value of the dollar may cause higher inflation, as the article addresses. This may be a bigger risk than the benefit of lowering the export expense rate because the real GDP does not account for that difference. If people keep on relying on the real GDP as the final absolute value that weighs the economy's statistics, then the benefit of lowering the export expense may not be a factor in increasing spending or investing. Of course, the pros and cons are up for debate, though the only real say we have in making their decisions is what they anticipate the public's general strategies are in response to each policy due to the public's past actions.
These are the actual minutes of the FOMC's meeting in September, released this past Wednesday:
As the minutes showed, the summary states that dissent of putting the plan into action was not necessarily by opponents but rather differentiated by different reasons that amounted to the idea that the plan should be a back-up but for these different situations: "in the event that further policy action to support a stronger economic recovery was warranted" and "if a Japan-style deflation - marked by falling consumer prices and economic stagnation - threatened to take hold".
Well, supposedly vague and insecure statements are expected though many people may not think so and send such minutes possibly under the impression of being neutral yet these cautions are important for considering serious short-term repercussions.

No comments: