Open Thread: Big Talk Butters No Parsnips
1 week ago
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Why Obama won.
Obama, the winner of 349 electoral votes, including Virgina, Florida, and Ohio, was the estimated president as of last night at 8:01pm PST after the West Coast polls closed.
Both candidates had a tough campaign, and there were times when both looked like they could come out on top. McCain stated he would put his "Country First" something the citizens needed to hear, while Obama won support through by contrasting himself with the current office. In his victory speech, Obama thanked his organizational teams, campaign volunteers and all his supporters. But those people are not the only reason he won.
For starters, Obama focused on a core theme of change. Americans everywhere are struggling and he gained support by offering them hope. Obama constantly slammed McCain for being "just more of the same", when the country really needs different approachs.
Second, Obama made a great decision in not taking public funds, allowing him to expand past the maximum ammount set, and raise as much money as possible. The money helped get his ideas published, television adds, and more volunteers.
Thirdly, (something we didn't exactly touch on in class) was that Obama had a difficult fight in the primaries against Senator Clinton. Unlike McCain, Obama had to start the race, with "full arms a-blazing" and was on the defence and offense from the get go. I'm not sure how much this greatly effected the outcome last night, but it's still something to consider.
Any other opinions? Is there something I missed?
Both candidates had a tough campaign, and there were times when both looked like they could come out on top. McCain stated he would put his "Country First" something the citizens needed to hear, while Obama won support through by contrasting himself with the current office. In his victory speech, Obama thanked his organizational teams, campaign volunteers and all his supporters. But those people are not the only reason he won.
For starters, Obama focused on a core theme of change. Americans everywhere are struggling and he gained support by offering them hope. Obama constantly slammed McCain for being "just more of the same", when the country really needs different approachs.
Second, Obama made a great decision in not taking public funds, allowing him to expand past the maximum ammount set, and raise as much money as possible. The money helped get his ideas published, television adds, and more volunteers.
Thirdly, (something we didn't exactly touch on in class) was that Obama had a difficult fight in the primaries against Senator Clinton. Unlike McCain, Obama had to start the race, with "full arms a-blazing" and was on the defence and offense from the get go. I'm not sure how much this greatly effected the outcome last night, but it's still something to consider.
Any other opinions? Is there something I missed?
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
I don't mean to spam this blog but it's been difficult to find the results of the propsitions as they come in so here it is:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#CA
Only prop 8 and prop 4 are at the very bottom. So far it's not looking too good.
Only prop 8 and prop 4 are at the very bottom. So far it's not looking too good.
And the winner is...
CBS just announced Senator Obama as the new president of the United States. 283 electoral votes to Senator John McCain's 145.
You call the election!!!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
So this website is fun to play around with. It shows what states CNN has allready called and it allows you to play around with the other states and determine who will win in them. Basically it becomes clear that if you make the assumptions that Obama will win CA (not exactly a risky bet) and Hawaii, then Obama really only needs one other state that has more than 3 electoral votes in order to secure the neccessary 270 electoral votes. In order for McCain to win he would need to win every other state that has not been called by CNN (excepting CA and Hawaii which i continue to assume will go to Obama. So McCain needs 15 more states to win, while Obama only needs 3 more.
So this website is fun to play around with. It shows what states CNN has allready called and it allows you to play around with the other states and determine who will win in them. Basically it becomes clear that if you make the assumptions that Obama will win CA (not exactly a risky bet) and Hawaii, then Obama really only needs one other state that has more than 3 electoral votes in order to secure the neccessary 270 electoral votes. In order for McCain to win he would need to win every other state that has not been called by CNN (excepting CA and Hawaii which i continue to assume will go to Obama. So McCain needs 15 more states to win, while Obama only needs 3 more.
Ohio--the deal breaker?
Based on the current exit polls, Ohio has been taken by Obama.
No Republican candidate who has won the election has ever lost Ohio.
Is this bad news forshadowing for McCain?
Still, more states to come, it could still sway either way.
No Republican candidate who has won the election has ever lost Ohio.
Is this bad news forshadowing for McCain?
Still, more states to come, it could still sway either way.
Does anyone else find this whole horserace thing a little absurd?
So I was just watcing chron 4 and they were saying that Obama has the lead in New Hampshire and McCain is leading in Kentucky. That all sounds fine and dandy and I'm sure there information is accurate. Then they proceed to say that they are basing this information off the 1% of precincts that are reporting in New Hampshire and the 2% of precincts reporting in Kentucky. Hold up!!!! 1 and 2%, well clearly that means that the race is won in those states, why bother counting the rest of the votes!!!! I'm sure that it is entirely possible, perhaps even likely that these results will be accurate, nevertheless, it seems absurd.
Election: 4pm Exit Polls
Now exit polls are not always accurate, but for now it's all we have.
So far, Obama has potentially secured Vermont, and McCain has gotten Kentucky. Indiana and Virgina are too close to call.
Indiana is 50% McCain, 49% Obama.
Virgina is 53% McCain, 46% Obama.
We are toying with the idea of updating every hour or so.
Any comments so far?
Monday, November 3, 2008
The Latest Polls
With elections literally hours away, most people have finally chosen their favored candidate. As the campaign continues in full swing for both parties, some people have claimed to still be undecided. About 4% (says the most recent Gallup poll) are still weighing the pros and cons of both candidates and probably won't decide until tomorrow in the polling booth. But as for now, the current standards leave Obama at 53% and McCain at 40% of the registered voters.
Gallup has predicted that Obama will win the general election in 2008, and they've only been wrong twice since they started polling in the late 1930s. Things look good for Obama, who currently holds the vote of about 83% of all non-white voters. McCain might have a slight lead in non-white votes (51%-44%), but Obama's lead is now more significant because of the increase in non-white registration this election.
Although the polls have been released, and Gallup has picked it's candidate, things are still up in the air--things could always change. We will only know for sure (hopefully) tomorrow night so in the mean time, get some sleep and remember to vote tomorrow (if you can). Have fun, poll workers. :)
The Death Penalty
My Special Interest Group is the Justice For All Criminal Justice Reform Organization and it made me wonder where the candidates this year stand on the subject and I thought it was interesting to see that their views didn't vary too much. In researching Interest Groups that are pro death penalty I had trouble because the overwhelming majority of the groups and websites out there are ANTI death Penalty, and the US is one of the only developed countries practicing the Death Penalty to the extent we do and we have received a lot of criticism for that. But it doesnt seem to fit with how many anti death penalty groups there seem to be out there.
This Articles in this Teen Magazine is very good and here are some links of what the candidates think about the death penalty.
Teen Inc:
http://www.teenink.com/Opinion/article/49841/Capital-Punishment-Is-Dead-Wrong/
Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcl-T0P7xYU
McCain:
McCain supports the death penalty for federal crimes. McCain says we should extend use of the death penalty and implement stricter penalties for violent felons. McCain supported legislation to prohibit the use of racial statistics in death penalty appeals and supports banning it for persons under eighteen.
( http://cfc.wciv.com/external.cfm?p=mccain )
This Articles in this Teen Magazine is very good and here are some links of what the candidates think about the death penalty.
Teen Inc:
http://www.teenink.com/Opinion/article/49841/Capital-Punishment-Is-Dead-Wrong/
Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcl-T0P7xYU
McCain:
McCain supports the death penalty for federal crimes. McCain says we should extend use of the death penalty and implement stricter penalties for violent felons. McCain supported legislation to prohibit the use of racial statistics in death penalty appeals and supports banning it for persons under eighteen.
( http://cfc.wciv.com/external.cfm?p=mccain )
Arizona, not Necessarily a Lock for McCain
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1856048,00.html?iid=tsmodule
According to this article, it is not necessarily a given that McCain will win his home state of Arizona. McCain served two terms in the House of Representatives for Arizona, before his four terms as Senator for Arizona. For a state that he has served so loyally for so long, to turn there back on him now is not an encouraging sign. The 20 point lead McCain held over the summer has now been reduced to only 3.5 points, a drastic change. This doesn't bode well for his success in the polls tomorrow. Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan all managed to secure the electoral votes from their home states, and not that he can't possibly win without Arizona, but this speaks volumes about how loyal his constituents are to him. So will Arizona go red or blue? Thoughts?
According to this article, it is not necessarily a given that McCain will win his home state of Arizona. McCain served two terms in the House of Representatives for Arizona, before his four terms as Senator for Arizona. For a state that he has served so loyally for so long, to turn there back on him now is not an encouraging sign. The 20 point lead McCain held over the summer has now been reduced to only 3.5 points, a drastic change. This doesn't bode well for his success in the polls tomorrow. Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan all managed to secure the electoral votes from their home states, and not that he can't possibly win without Arizona, but this speaks volumes about how loyal his constituents are to him. So will Arizona go red or blue? Thoughts?
Some Serious Negative Campaining
The ads in this article just jumped out at me as being super negative, especially the second one though. I haven't seen a lot of ads from this election so I don't have that much to compare them to but it just seems so nasty. McCain's last ditch attempt to link Obama to the "Muslim" world. I see this as being rather general and maybe offensive to the muslims here in America? who might be then driven away from McCain... I remember this issue of linking him to the middle east because of his name coming up a lot around the time of the primaries and now they are bringing it up again, running old ads again.
Record Turnout Predicted
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/nov/03/83-percent-voter-turnout-expected/
According to this article there is over 80 percent turnout expected tomorrow. I am signed up to help at the polls tomorrow and last night when I was talking to the supervisor of my precinct he said he's heard that 80 percent were expected to vote and I was shocked, because as we know from our wonderful AP gov class, normally the percent of people who CAN vote who DO, cirlces around 50 percent. But some polls are expecting up to 83 percent this election which is awesome. Could it be that these candidates apeal to a wider range of people? we know men are more likely to vote than women, but now we have a woman candidate, and also Clinton possibly got a lot more women involved at the primaries, and whites are more likely to vote than minorities, but here we have a black man running, so that could get minorities more involved.
According to this article there is over 80 percent turnout expected tomorrow. I am signed up to help at the polls tomorrow and last night when I was talking to the supervisor of my precinct he said he's heard that 80 percent were expected to vote and I was shocked, because as we know from our wonderful AP gov class, normally the percent of people who CAN vote who DO, cirlces around 50 percent. But some polls are expecting up to 83 percent this election which is awesome. Could it be that these candidates apeal to a wider range of people? we know men are more likely to vote than women, but now we have a woman candidate, and also Clinton possibly got a lot more women involved at the primaries, and whites are more likely to vote than minorities, but here we have a black man running, so that could get minorities more involved.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
I'm Helping, Dontchaknow?
Sarah Palin has saved McCain's campaign, and McCain is ahead in the polls. McCain could win this election by a landslide. Oh wait, my apologizes, good people. What I meant to say was that Sarah Palin looks as if she has done more harm than good to the McCain Campaign.
Recent studies by a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicated that Palin has steadily been growing less popular among voters and may be costing McCain the election. With such a close race, it makes one think about what might have happened if McCain had chosen someone else? Democrats rejoice at the news of this survey, while Republicans are disappointed at the results.
Who would have thought that a Governor from Alaska, with little to no experience or qualifications for the Vice-Presidency would have generated bad beat? That someone who cannot speak for herself publicly, people tell her what to say, confuses her, and then she doesn't know what is what anymore, would create such a fuss and would potentially cost McCain the election.
Palin's popularity rating may prove to be the cause of McCain's downward spiral, but this is just one survey. Perhaps more surveys will pop up, but as of now, it could only possibly be suggested that Palin dragged McCain down with her.
Recent studies by a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicated that Palin has steadily been growing less popular among voters and may be costing McCain the election. With such a close race, it makes one think about what might have happened if McCain had chosen someone else? Democrats rejoice at the news of this survey, while Republicans are disappointed at the results.
Who would have thought that a Governor from Alaska, with little to no experience or qualifications for the Vice-Presidency would have generated bad beat? That someone who cannot speak for herself publicly, people tell her what to say, confuses her, and then she doesn't know what is what anymore, would create such a fuss and would potentially cost McCain the election.
Palin's popularity rating may prove to be the cause of McCain's downward spiral, but this is just one survey. Perhaps more surveys will pop up, but as of now, it could only possibly be suggested that Palin dragged McCain down with her.
A Losing Race?
With only two days to go, polls are being taken and it would appear that McCain is going to lose. 4 years ago, Bush carried many swing states that may be difficult for McCain to achieve. Does McCain have what it takes?
For the past two weeks, McCain has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania trying to convince voters to vote for him. Although Pennsylvania is Democratic, and Bush lost Pennsylvania four years ago, McCain seems to believe that he has a good shot at taking Pennsylvania. Should McCain be worrying about Virginia instead?
It seems that Virginia has become a swing state in this election. Although Virginia has usually been a state won by Republicans, in recent years, Virginia is becoming an example of the "crumbling of the GOP coalition." Virginia may yet be a harder state for McCain to win.
These two states are important swing states along with many others. For McCain, seemingly a maverick in a losing battle, these states could cost him the elections. Does McCain have what it takes to win these swing states knowing that Bush barely won them? Even though Bush had lost by only 2.5% vote in Pennsylvania, should McCain have focused on swing states that he could have had a better chance at? Like Ohio?
For the past two weeks, McCain has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania trying to convince voters to vote for him. Although Pennsylvania is Democratic, and Bush lost Pennsylvania four years ago, McCain seems to believe that he has a good shot at taking Pennsylvania. Should McCain be worrying about Virginia instead?
It seems that Virginia has become a swing state in this election. Although Virginia has usually been a state won by Republicans, in recent years, Virginia is becoming an example of the "crumbling of the GOP coalition." Virginia may yet be a harder state for McCain to win.
These two states are important swing states along with many others. For McCain, seemingly a maverick in a losing battle, these states could cost him the elections. Does McCain have what it takes to win these swing states knowing that Bush barely won them? Even though Bush had lost by only 2.5% vote in Pennsylvania, should McCain have focused on swing states that he could have had a better chance at? Like Ohio?
The Final Stretch
What a campaign trail it has been. With only two days to go, the candidates are going all out. As of Sunday, both campaign made millions of calls, had people knocking on very door, and mailed letters to potential voters bringing the cost of the campaign to a record breaking 1 BILLION DOLLARS. It is estimated that it would cost each of them 8 dollars per Presidential vote.
Where did all the spending go specifically, you might ask? Well a majority of the money went to advertising through media resources. Examples of this would include the Robocall made by the GOP stating that Clinton is endorsing McCain. Another example is the Republican party calling Pennsylvania and Ohio voters and taking Obama's words about coal-burning technology out of context and claiming that he will "bankrupt the coal industry."
A lot of negative campaign still continuing with the Republican party. But, they are not only to blame for the spending. the Democratic party released a new TV ad highlighting Cheney's endorsement for McCain as Cheney states that he is "delighted to support John McCain."
The spending doesn't stop at media spending. The spending continues into the employment of people to support them. workers run around, going door-to-door asking people to support and vote for Barack Obama. It has been a tough run, but the candidates aren't stopping till the "fat lady sings."
Where did all the spending go specifically, you might ask? Well a majority of the money went to advertising through media resources. Examples of this would include the Robocall made by the GOP stating that Clinton is endorsing McCain. Another example is the Republican party calling Pennsylvania and Ohio voters and taking Obama's words about coal-burning technology out of context and claiming that he will "bankrupt the coal industry."
A lot of negative campaign still continuing with the Republican party. But, they are not only to blame for the spending. the Democratic party released a new TV ad highlighting Cheney's endorsement for McCain as Cheney states that he is "delighted to support John McCain."
The spending doesn't stop at media spending. The spending continues into the employment of people to support them. workers run around, going door-to-door asking people to support and vote for Barack Obama. It has been a tough run, but the candidates aren't stopping till the "fat lady sings."
Another GOP Robocall
The GOP released another Robocall featuring Hilary Clinton seemingly endorsing McCain by speaking out against Obama.
Of course, you shouldn't always believe what you hear. During the Democratic primary campaign, Clinton is quoted as saying "In the White House there is no time for speeches and on-the-job training. Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign and Senator Obama will bring a speech that he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference." Although Clinton is heard saying this, she clearly states that she is not endorsing McCain.
A spokesperson for Clinton stated that "Senator Hillary Clinton does not approve this message, and as she crisscrosses the country, she has said time and again that the choice in this election could not be more clear. The McCain/Palin ticket offers only more of the same failed policies while the Obama/Biden ticket offers the vision, leadership and positive solutions we need. I wonder why the Republicans aren't using those words."
Of course, you shouldn't always believe what you hear. During the Democratic primary campaign, Clinton is quoted as saying "In the White House there is no time for speeches and on-the-job training. Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign and Senator Obama will bring a speech that he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference." Although Clinton is heard saying this, she clearly states that she is not endorsing McCain.
A spokesperson for Clinton stated that "Senator Hillary Clinton does not approve this message, and as she crisscrosses the country, she has said time and again that the choice in this election could not be more clear. The McCain/Palin ticket offers only more of the same failed policies while the Obama/Biden ticket offers the vision, leadership and positive solutions we need. I wonder why the Republicans aren't using those words."
I Would Change My Vote To McCain Now That He Is Endorsed By My Favorite Deer Hunter, Dick Cheney!
So, with the final stretch to go, Dick Cheney endorses McCain. Oh dammit McCain, You were so close! Well here's a video of that.
And here's a random video I came across of a prank call made by a Quebec Comedy Show:
And here's a random video I came across of a prank call made by a Quebec Comedy Show:
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