Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Downturn and Upstarts Transform Nevada’s G.O.P. Caucuses

The Republican contest in Nevada this weekend is anything but insignificant. Mitt Romney emerged as the victor in the Nevada primary in 2008, winning with 51% of the votes, but the political climate in Nevada has changed drastically in the past four years.

Unemployment in Nevada has increased to 13%, up 7.5% from where it was in January 2008. The housing market in Nevada is doing poorly, with nearly one in 175 houses in foreclosure. And where the Tea Party did not exist in 2008, it is now extremely popular in Nevada.

Romney is expected to well in Nevada, in part due to the fact that close to 25% of the electorate are Mormon. But Tea Party conservatives who see Romney as an establishment Republican might be able to successfully block out Romney. Gingrich and Santorum certainly hope so, as they have been fiercely campaigning for the conservative vote.

What do you guys think? Any predictions on who will win? Any thoughts on on how Nevada will affect the rest of the race, including the general election, as it has become an important swing state?

1 comment:

Rebecca Wysong said...

I think that every primary is major because of the amount of coverage by the media each one is getting. Also, another victory would soldify Romney's lead in the primary and continue the strength of his campaign. Even though Romney won last time, it does not automatically mean he will win this time because the economic issues are major, especially with the great increase in unemployement.