Rate of uninsured at lowest since 2008, early signs of ACA impact?

Wednesday, the Obama administration announced that Americans will be able to keep old insurance plans for up to three years, even if they do not comply with Affordable Care Act standards. Though critics immediately saw this as another example of poor execution and administrative inconsistency (following the numerous changes to the ACA’s implementation), a recent Gallup poll might indicate a trend in the other direction. The uninsured rate is at the lowest it has been since 2008 and has declined significantly among lower-income individuals and Black Americans.

Though it is not certain as to whether the trend can be attributed to the ACA policies, it is likely that they have contributed some. Additionally, several of the law’s provisions have not gone into effect, including the requirement that employers provide health insurance to their employees by 2015-2016.

This continues the trend of data that Gallup reported in earlier months. Professionals have cautioned against speculation, as the drop in uninsured may be related to the political debate surrounding the ACA.

We’ll have to wait to see the real impact of the ACA. While the Democrats did suffer from initial implementation failures and indecisiveness, once more concrete data comes out, we may see some Republican states begin to waver as well: Greg Sargent of the Washington Post states, “We’re already seeing the GOP repeal stance begin to crack up as enrollment mounts and local GOP officials and GOP candidates embrace versions of the Medicaid expansion for their states; a continued fall in the uninsured could make it increasingly difficult for Republicans to continue pretending the law's beneficiaries simply don't exist."

This poses interesting questions for the upcoming midterm elections. What are your predictions? And what are your thoughts about the ACA as the data starts to roll in?