Crimea crisis update: Russian saber rattling continues

Here’s an update on the shifting landscape in Crimea…

RIA Novosti/Reuters

Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin held an unscripted press conference to discuss the ongoing crisis in Crimea. Putin’s description of the crisis was almost entirely at odds with the version presented by the United States and many of Europe’s leaders. Putin restated his support for the ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and stated that the Russian presence in Crimea was in complete accordance with international law and agreements with Ukraine. Earlier today, Russian troops at the hotly contested Belbek military institution in Crimea fired warning shots at Ukrainian soldiers who were attempting to return to their positions. And meanwhile, it has been reported that Russian special forces have been inserted into the region (in addition to the already reported 16,000 troops).

While Putin’s statements this morning did little to ease the tension (or even attempt to), he did make some interesting comments regarding annexation…

“We are not considering this possibility,” he said. “It’s up to people living in a certain territory, if they can exercise their free will, and determine their future. For example, if Kosovo’s Albanians were allowed to do that, self-determination, which according to U.N. documents is a right, but we will never instigate it, never support such trends.”

Putin actually seems to have stuck his foot in the door for that discussion. And, noting that 58 percent of Crimea’s 2 million people are ethnic Russian and that many more have Russian citizenship, his brand of logic would likely not consider this preposterous. Basically, it’s complicated.

In Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent visit, he condemned Putin’s actions. The responses from United States officials has been varied; economic sanctions have even been brought to the table. But the bottom line is that the US seems to have little bargaining power besides the force of a public condemnation of Russia’s actions. Economically, Europe brings far more to the table than we do—we’re not one of Russia’s major trading partners, and Europe is hesitant to impose economic sanctions. To many, it seems that anything short of actual US military intervention would have little impact.

All this is made a bit more interesting because of Russia’s declining economic predicament. In the background of the Crimea chaos, the Bank of Russia raised interest rates from 5.5 percent to 7 percent the other day (its largest increase since the 1980s) in an attempt to keep foreign capital in the country. Furthermore, as Matthew Klein of Bloomberg View notes, European demand for natural gas has declined since 2010 and Russian oil production costs have risen as oil prices remain flat. The idea that Putin is using this to drag attention from Russia’s larger economic problems is tossed around in the article.

TLDR: Putin’s antics leave much to speculation with the ongoing crisis, but the showiness of Russian saber rattling may in fact be hiding more beneath the surface…. I'll leave this discussion open to whatever direction anybody takes.