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| KYLE TERADA/USA TODAY SPORTS |
I really could not resist posting about this. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight posted its predictions for the NCAA tournament. Test
Silver’s odds against your own? I highly encourage you to read the analysis
methods, as Silver boasts an impressive record of “political prognostication.”
But of course, please do keep the actual odds in the back of your mind—they
really, really are not in your favor. And on that note, I suggest you buy a lottery
ticket first.
2 comments:
First of all, I still think I filled out the perfect bracket... just kidding. I knew the odds were against me, but to this magnitude, I had no idea. It is unfathomable how low these odds actually are, and yet, we hope. I am really excited to see how this year turns out. It really is much more likely that you will win the lottery and that proves the point right there. It is awesome to have this dream of filling out the perfect bracket and becoming the Nostradamus of March Madness, but it clearly won't happen. I finally understand why Buffet is willing to put up $1 billion for the reward. Well, thank you Brandon for the post and let's see how it plays out.
Good one, Connor... Let's see how this one "plays out." very clever.
Nate Silver's had an incredible hand with numbers if the 2008 election predictions are any indication. In many respects, his work, based on statistics and patterns, is very similar to economics in that both rely upon "best guesses." Neither can claim 100% certainty but seek to explain our world using the most practical and probable data available.
In a sense, the world is like this bracket bracket and economics seeks to fit the pieces together. Economic predictions are often ill-conceived. It'll be very interesting to see how the numbers work out in the end and the degree to which Mr. 538's bracket becomes reality.
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