This year, having 2287 total delegates means that 1144 will secure the nomination for the republican president. This year Super Tuesday falls on March 6th with a total of 419 delegates up for grabs. This year Super Tuesday will account for 16.84 percent of the total delegates and 33.65 percent of the number needed for victory.
These percentages are extremely low compared with the most recent Super Tuesdays. In 2008 there were more than twice as many delegates up for grabs in the largest Super Tuesday ever. Interestingly, in 2008 Super Tuesday took place in February instead of in March and featured 24 states instead of this year's nominating situation which will only have nine (plus Alaska which will begin their two week long caucus). In 2008 John McCain pretty much secured the nomination by winning 511 delegates, well ahead of second place Romney at 176 delegates. This year there may be a different outcome for Mr. Romney.
As the favorite going into Tuesday, Romney already leads the second place candidate Santorum 203 to 92. Should Romney pull out as big a victory that McCain had in 2008, he could separate himself enough from Santorum to almost guarantee the nomination. While Super Tuesday can't make the nomination official this year, it could cause Romney to take a commanding lead.
However, Romney's win will not come easily. In the most recent polls regarding this year's Super Tuesday, Romney and Santorum have the edge in 4 states each, with Gingrich winning Georgia in a landslide. Can Santorum make a comeback? Or will Romney further his lead?
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It's too early to tell, but chances are, given Romney's lead and decent campaigning, he will surge ahead with many of Super Tuesday's delegates.
I found it strange at first that this year's Super Tuesday is to occur much later than the date four years ago, and on a much smaller scale. However, it is not unreasonable, because the race is much less competitive. Not as many delegates are needed to determine the winner. With Obama running as incumbent, the Democratic Party is guaranteed a candidate; and the GOP is soon to have a winner.
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