California may just be the state to decide if Romney, Paul, Gingrich, or Santorum is placed on the Republican Presidential ballot. Romney is already in a gigantic lead having 415 delegates opposed to Santorum in second place with 176 delegates. California has 172 delegates which is more than enough to put Romney even further ahead. With Romney being the front-runner, will California continue to keep it this way, or put another candidate ahead?
(Hopefully California's democratic atmosphere will pick the lesser of all evils... :) )
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I think it is very unlikely that Gingrich or Santorum will emerge victorious in California, as I am skeptical that their extremely conservative values are shared by the majority of Californians, even Republicans. I think thier core support comes from the southern states, which are typically the conservative ones. We have already seen this trend play out, as Gingrich has won Georgia and South Carolina, and Santorum has won Tennessee and Oklahoma.
I expect that Romney will win in California, because he has shown himself thus far to be moderate, which is important for voters in a state that is more liberal/
Considering that California is an open primary, honestly anything could happen. While in the Bay Area, the nation's bastion for social liberalism, it seems unlikely that Gingrich or Santorum will get many votes, it must also be noted that many parts of the central valley and southern California are strongly Republican.
Considering the very liberal attitude of much of California, I would be interested to see how many extreme liberals will choose to participate as some sort of attempt to skew the results or derail certain candidates. However, we did read in our textbooks that the actions of those who register for the party they do not favor in order to mess with the primaries do not have a great effect on the results.
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