Sunday, December 14, 2008

Potential Trouble in China

So, the US isn't the only place having economic woes. While keeping a close eye on our economy is perfectly understandable, others are having a hard time as well. China is a large exporter of goods but the decreasing demand has caused manufacturers to layoff workers. Communist leaders expressed concern about the job loss, and these conditions could worsen political tension. Now it's a race to find a balance of keeping the people happy and while figuring out how to get the economy back on track. Though it seems a bit far fetched right now, if the problem worsens there might be another political tussle in China.

Should there be more unrest in China, it might start a vicious cycle of lack of goods because of the lack of workers and further decline in the economy, even globally because there won't be much supply for even the small demand of goods. I'm no economist specialist though, so this is mostly conjecture on my part.

Did the US start these global economic problems? I know that countries have been particularly picky about getting money from us, but I haven't been following foreign affairs and the article didn't place the blame on anyone specific. I suppose it's possible that with the fear of recession, our (the US) demand for foreign goods decreased while we focused on internal problems.

14 comments:

LindsayMcMurdo said...

I really feel the U.S is causing some of the economic recession in China because China is a big trader with our country and when we cut off buying from them alot of that cuts off jobs of the people in China because we arent funding those jobs. We are one of the most powerful nations in the world so i wouldnt try to contradict someone if they said everyone elses problems result from our country.

R. Bal said...

The US put themselves in this situation, (both the economic woes and the fact that they are a major player in the world economy) and this also shows how intertwined the world really is. If one big country has a fall back, everyone feels it, if someone is doing well, it will most likely help other countries as well, whether or not this is a bad thing i am honestly not sure about as i am writing this.
Another perspective is that the US's time in the sun is maybe not over yet as other countries still need us to buy their goods for the success of their own countries.

ooleg said...

the US caused the problems, therefore there should be no surprise that other countries are trying to collect from the country that started it. Honestly it sucks but its fair i guess. however i do not think that the US will pay up. the only problem with this whole situation is the amount of money that we owe to china. i do not think that we will ever pay it off, and if china asks for it i dont think that we will give it to them well atleast not all at once.

Aly C. said...

Personally I'm having a hard time worrying to much about China's problem. We're talking about a country that has experienced an explosion of economic growth over the last 20 years. Don't get me wrong, I think it is wonderful that there is a rapidly expanding middle and upper class in China, but where has it come from? How is it that China's economy eclipsed the growth rate of America, all of Europe, and basically every other economy in the world? While a good chunk of the growth has come from building great products and hard work, the rapid rate of growth has been truly fueled by very cheap labor, horrid and risky working conditions, and a total disregard for the environment. This list doesn't take into account hi tech piracy and all kinds of copy rite infringement. The stock market in China by all accounts was riskier and more highly leveraged than US markets. While it is certainly true that the problems in the US economy have spilled into China as well as Europe, it isn't something that we are the root cause of. It does highlight one thing...greed is universal. Perhaps once the current economic crises passes, China's leaders will act more responsibly in many areas.

Anonymous said...

of course we are the cause to the economic downfall!! not only in China but also Russia and many other countries... it all started with our lousy bank systems. bad loans, bad mortgages.

the economy's downfall is the catalyst to the domino effect.

Kimiya Bahmanyar said...

While we're probably the main reason for the downward spiral that China's economy is going in to, I don't think we are the only reason. They did just host the Olympics this summer, and now that all of the excitement has died down, they have less stuff than before because the sudden rush of tourism has gone back down to its normal amount, if not lower due to the economic crisises everywhere. People want to do less and buy less, so China, who is known for its exports, has less to do and is feeling the strain just like we are.
~Kimiya Bahmanyar

laura said...

Our economic problems undoubtedly aggravated economic instability in numerous countries and because China's economy is so closely tied to our own, they are feeling the effects of our financial insecurity. The U.S. imports much more than it exports and therefore the global market is dependent on U.S. consumption of goods. When Americans are buying less, the global economy suffers as well as our own. Its not just our failing economy, its the worlds failing economy.

Scott Bade said...

An interesting point to consider is that it is perhaps a good thing for China to own massive amounts of American debt. While I don't like it, history shows that the more intertwined countries become, the less likely they are to blow each other up. Up until the 1940s, countries regularly went to war because their economies didn't' really affect each other. But, notice that there has not been any major war since WWII. There is a reason for that. The more of the US that China owns, the less it is likely to ever go to war with us. Think about it: why would China ever bomb an American city and possibly damage their own mall?

Scott Bade said...

An interesting point to consider is that it is perhaps a good thing for China to own massive amounts of American debt. While I don't like it, history shows that the more intertwined countries become, the less likely they are to blow each other up. Up until the 1940s, countries regularly went to war because their economies didn't' really affect each other. But, notice that there has not been any major war since WWII. There is a reason for that. The more of the US that China owns, the less it is likely to ever go to war with us. Think about it: why would China ever bomb an American city and possibly damage their own mall?

Osama said...

so if its are fault, wouldn't it make sense for us to work together to fix ours and everyone else's economic troubles? Bush not only caused our economy to fail but everyone else's, how much does that suck to be on your chest knowing that most of the troubles of not only America but those of other countries are hurting from his actions. But blaming someone else wont make it go away, and with a new president coming in, how do we know things will turn around? I think we all need to work together to fix the problem and not to just point fingers.

I agree with Scott he has a very smart theory. Lets hope it doesn't get that worst that there is a another war, and if there is its good to know that china would be on our side ha. Do you think if we went to a war that we would get out of this recession like it helped in the great depression?

Norman Eng said...

Well, due to the fact that the economic crisis began with the US, it is not unusual for other countries to follow up, especially China(with its enormous amount of manufactured products). So if we were to break down, so would they. We(nations) are all esentially tied up in the same rope, if one of us falls into a pit, then we all fall in as well. Since the US is the main fat center of all the countries and has the most effect towards all, it is not odd that the devastating impact that we've cost due to our poor management in the economy.

Nelson Cheung said...

This really shows how fragile China's (and India too) economy is still dependent on the world at large. There was a lot of talk about China being the country that could lead the world out of a recession, but apparently that's not going to happen anytime soon.

This relates to the current global recession where many currencies are losing value and people are again returning to invest in US dollars since they are the de facto currency for many nations. China's situation is not helped by the fact that their FOREX reserves is the largest in the world. Combine this with the rapid booming in infrastructure and the decrease in demand, this is definitely going to slow China's growth. This certainly looks like China's second leap forward, but it looks like it would take a slight detour on the way.

Clayton K. said...

It just goes to show how all countries are connected through the globalization of trade. This article by Canada's National Post talks about the U.S.'s bailouts and mentions that "It will take a mighty effort by central banks and government authorities to drag the global economy out of this ditch." In conjunction, this US News article talks about the recession being the worst in decades for Europe, and the worst for Japan in 10 years.

None of these articles seem to say that the global recession is the United State's fault. Everyone is focusing on how to fix the problem, rather than find out who to blame for it. When the economy goes bad, everyone has to work together to help fix it because inactivity only hurts you.

kelvin_chen said...

I don't think that the US is the primary source of the world's recent economic downturn, though we definitely have played our part in it. The world economy is now so intertwined that any shift in any country will affect the global market. While the effects of our failed housing market and subsequent bank failures are felt in all countries we have strong market ties to, a major drop in one nation's economy would probably not be enough to cause a significant ripple effect throughout the world unless other countries were just as unstable as we were.

In this case, China has a disadvantage in that its position as an economic giant has only been established very recently, and it came as a result of rapid expansion. As a country specializing in production and exportation, it relies heavily on the needs of other countries. If China loses buyers in a worldwide recession, it gets hurt very badly. On the other hand, a mostly consumer nation like the US has an easier time in that it can adapt by buying less goods. Only time will tell how well everyone gets out of this mess.