Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Assad's De Facto Victory in The Syrian Civil War

link to article
Syrians rally for Assad | Source: New York Times
 Recently the Syrian Army under the control of Bashar al-Assad has lifted the siege of Syrian city Deir ez-Zor from opposing ISIS. ISIS has been declining for some time, and this is a major defeat for the caliphate. Once ISIS is out of the picture the Syrian Government will be able to move troops west to fight the NATO backed rebels. Unless a major power interferes directly, it is almost certain that Assad will end up triumphant in this struggle.

 Countries such as America that have supported the opposition rebels in the past are now being forced to adopt a more realistic view of a potential deal with Assad. The idea from the Obama administration that "Assad must go" is no longer a practical thing to demand. Now, America would be lucky to get any deal with Assad.

 The international community of rebel supporters is shrinking one by one, with Countries like Saudi Arabia and America diverting their efforts to things that they believe are more winnable. Even Turkey, a member of NATO is now moving siding with Iran, as they no longer see stopping Assad as doable. Their primary concern is to stop the Kurdish backed rebels that threaten both Iran and themselves.

 A victory for Assad would hold great significance, with NATO failing to bring their chosen side victory. While Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran, all backers of the Syrian government, have taken casualties, they are all ideologically stronger. It is likely that in the future they will be more willing to involve themselves in additional military conflicts.

Questions:
 How will this de facto victory alter the strategies of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran?
 Is this the beginning of a coalition against NATO's regime changes in the Middle East
 Will NATO move on to try to change a different regime?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It seems like there's no perfect solution. If we try to get rid of Assad, a power void will be left just like in Iraq. On the flip side, Assad isn't the nicest of people and could continue committing crimes against humanity. Maybe now we should leave him alone, but at what point should the international community hold him in check?