Tuesday, May 1, 2012

New Afgan Pact: Will it Last?

Today President Obama traveled to Afghanistan to sign an agreement with Afghanistan's President, Hamid Karzai. This marks a supposed transition in the war while committing the U.S. to another decade of economic and military aid. The agreement outlines and 10-year plan where in 2014 most American forces will be withdrawn from the country. However it "provides for the possibility of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after 2014, for the purposes of training Afghan forces and targeting the remnants of al Qaeda." American forced are going to rely on Afghan sites, instead of creating permanent bases in Afghanistan, to fight remaining al Qaeda forces.

The agreement on no permanent bases in Afghanistan comes with a price. "U.S. negotiators secured assurances from Afghan officials that the nation would do more to combat pervasive corruption, which remains one of the most serious challenges to long-term stability in Afghanistan."

Although this agreement seems like a really good idea, the reality of the situation doesn't seem promising. American forces will still be in Afghanistan for another 10 year, and most likely longer because in my opinion, al Qaeda isn't going to go away anytime soon. So what do you guys think? It is a step in the right direction or just a good idea that won't work?

5 comments:

Sophia Wu said...

Given the American trend of failed promises, I agree with Elizabeth that American forces will be in Afghanistan for more than an additional 10 years. There will always be a need for continued US support in the Middle East, whether it is military or economic support or any other form. However, the fact that American forces will use Afghan military sites rather than establishing permanent American bases makes me a bit hopeful that the 10 year time limit might actually be met. The lack of permanent American bases makes the situation seem much more temporary compared to if American bases were established.

PatrickG said...

I too expect that the U.S. will remain in Afghanistan, but based on the fact that we have a military presence in a very large number of countries. Just because we are pulling the majority of our forces out that shouldn't imply that we will actually fully withdraw within the ten year limit (or ever). All it really says is that we will not be in a full-scale war the way we have been for the past ten years. Frankly, that seems to me to be the best possible scenario at this point in time.

Joseph Chua said...

"Provides for the possibility of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after 2014" - sounds like an attempt to make it seem like there has been significant progress while admitting the situation is not much better, still requiring US troops to back up the government in Kabul. There also doesn't seem to be a provision preventing a renewal of keeping US troops in Afghanistan ten years from now. As to the US troops relying more on Afghan sites, that just seems like a token act of support to the Afghan government.
Unless the US/NATO can train the Afghan military and police while tackling corruption in the ranks can the US finally pull troops out from Afghanistan.

Dustan Li said...

As Sophia stated, I doubt that the US will be out of the Middle East any time soon. Obviously, there is no real way for the US to guarantee that corruption will decrease inside of the Afghan government; all it can really do is hope for the best. The 10 year plan is something that is hopeful and should be striven for, but probably unrealistic. Most of these timelines that are created are overestimated. Also, at a time when the presidential elections are near, it does look good on Obama's part to have struck a "successful" deal with the Afghan government.

Sabrina Imbler said...

I would agree with Dustan on that last count; Obama truly is maximizing the political capital of killing Osama bin Laden (as he visited Afghanistan on the one-year anniversary of his death). He even released a campaign video last week that insinuated that bin Laden would still be alive had Romney been in office the past four years. While he has every right to do so, he has come under fire for politicizing these issues that some do not believe should be fodder for his November campaign.

The security pact, while limited, has benefits for both parties: the US guarantees Afghan sovereignty and promises it will not abandon the nation, and the US finally has an end date in mind for its long presence in Afghanistan while being able to keep some officers in the nation.

Ultimately, I suppose that our presence in Afghanistan is much like cheeto fingers. It doesn't matter how much we lick that orange goo off our hands, because it will still stay embedded in the crescents of our fingertips. Until Obama sucks it up and washes his hands with soap--lathering and scrubbing for at least 10 seconds--remnants of the US will remain in Afghanistan for a long, long time.