It has been stated that Kim Long Il's son, Kim Jong Eun will be taking his place as leader of North Korea. And, according to the article, "analysts say that with the process of transition from father to son incomplete, Mr Kim's death could herald "very unstable times" in North Korea." The British Foreign Secretary William Hague also said that it may be a "turning point" for North Korea to get more involved in the international community.
So after the leader's death, how do you think the country will be affected? Will the possibly turbulent transition have a big effect on the international community?
13 comments:
It was odd to me that so many people were upset over Kim Jong's death. Maybe I just don't understand it, but he was a dictator of an entire country for an extremely long time, and led an entire country into famine.
Although, with Kim Jong Eun taking over North Korea could go two ways. I'm sure everyone is hoping that it will change for the better and be more involved internationally. However, it could also change for the worse, and his son could follow in Kim Jong's footsteps. The day of Kim Jong's death, North Korea fired two missles... This is the article that talks about it. http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=698534&vId=2932103&cId=World
This should be interesting...whereas Kim Jong-il's father allowed him over 10 years as a public figure to gain support from the North Korean people, no one even knew what Kim Jong-un looked like until last year. So that could be cause for some mistrust and tension. But I still think that Kim Jong-un will be better than his father when it comes to diplomacy; as noted in the Ny Times article linked below, he was educated in Switzerland and speaks German and English. And, in order to get the North Korean economy back up and running by 2012 (like his father promised would happen), the country's going to have to open itself up to the rest of the world again; his unique background could only help him with that. Even if he is incapable of turning things around for the North Korean people, I don't think there will be any sort of uprising, because, as Shawn mentioned, there's an irrational love for the ruling family that prevents protest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/world/asia/questions-about-north-koreas-stability-after-kim-jong-il.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2
While these North Korean citizens may publicly profess sadness for the passing of Kim Jong-Il, we must note that these citizens have not exactly been presented with the truth of their existence. Kim Jong-Il and his regime have brainwashed, brutally oppressed, and driven North Korea to pervasive famine and penury. Living a life that impoverished engenders a natural propensity to believe whatever your superiors declaim, if only to cling on to those few threads of hope. Furthermore, we don't actually expect North Korea to allow citizens to speak badly of--or, god forbid, celebrate--the death of "Dear Leader"? Any person who spoke out against Kim would have been silenced before releasing any information or statement to the media. Yes, he did lead his country into a devastating famine, but these citizens have been told all their lives that "Kim Jong-Il can control the weather with his mood," "Kim Jong-Il's birth was heralded by a swallow, which transformed winter into spring and caused stars and rainbows to cover the sky," or (my personal favorite) "Kim Jong-Il does not poop" (the last of which has since been stricken from his official biography). How are they supposed to know any better? And if they do, they know enough to not voice their opinions.
Regarding any future turbulence, it all depends on how much power Kim Jong-Un truly has. If Kim Jong-Un has usurped his father's power in his entirety, reports on Jong-Un's intelligence predict faulty future political decisions, which could provoke an intervention by those leftover from Kim Jong-Il's regime. However, if Jong-Un simply holds a figurehead position, that position welcomes jockeying between Kim Jong-Il's former military and political advisers for power, a battle that will not be supported by the structure of the North Korean dictatorship. We must remember that the regime of North Korea is not comprised of only one man.
Before we look to the effects of Kim Jong Il's deaths in the international community, we must first look towards the effects within the internal community.
While Kim Jong Il established a sort of cult personality within the DPRK, Kim Jong Un has little recognition in North Korea. The only merits on which Kim Jon Un is leading is the dynastic succession of his father.
Moreover, Kim Jong Un, raised in Switzerland, certainly has a completely different outlook on the world than his father.
What happens in the Korean Peninsula will certainly be predicated on how well the North Koreans embrace their new leader.
I think this could be a great chance for North Korea to improve their economy and become involved with the world market again. Because of his outside education on, I think Kim Jong Un will be able to compromise and have better relations with other countries than his father. However, the exact opposite could happen if Kim Jong Un decides to just follow in his father's footsteps. Which ever way it goes, the article is right in saying that it could be a very unstable time which gives the people a chance to make their own change if they choose to do so. I'm not really sure what North Korea is going to do, but I have a feeling that big changes are coming
I agree with Raquel, with the youth of Kim Jong Eun, this could lead to some more liberal views and changes to the country. Whether he'll take over the government is unofficial but it's very much likely. With such a sudden transition, I feel as if Kim Jong Eun will be more likely to be dependent on the military to establish his presence and authority but hopefully later on in years, his youth and age will give way to new views and perspectives of the country. Right now, they're probably very vulnerable due to the transition and I guess we'll just see what happens.
The death of Kim Jong Il has created a huge power vacuum that will have to be filed. As Andrew said, Kim Jong Il had a cult of personality established around him, allowing him to maintain his tremendous power (from dubious popular support), while Kim Jong Un does not yet have as big of a following.
Since he was appointed successor, I thought that the transition would go smoothly, but as Sabrina brought up, if Kim Jong Un doesn't cement a hold on his father's power, senior party members and military officers will be prone to take as much as they can of the new power vacuum.
We do not yet know of Kim Jong Un's ability to rule. We can only wait and see what he will do.
I disagree with Raquel and Crystal as I don't think that there will be any liberal change in North Korea. Yes, I would like to believe that there may be change with the death of Kim Jong Il, but I highly doubt it because of their past history. Kim Jong Il groomed Kim Jong Un to continue his regime and I think that that is what will exactly happen. If anything, I think Kim Jong Un will take measures to show his supremacy to the world via missiles or something drastic. From many news sources, Kimg Jong Un's promotion seems to be very rash because of his father's health, so his leadership skills will be something to watch for.
North Korea right now is very unstable. The whole world, South Korea especially, should be on high alert and should proceed with caution. There is very little information about Kim Jong Eun, and until more is known about him, every country should be alert and awake. Maybe this transition of power and unstable period could be an opportunity for kidnapped South Koreans to flee and return to their families. This also could be a chance for a nation to try to secure North Korea, negotiate with them to become allies, or try to eliminate their nuclear program. The coming years could be the huge change that the world is hoping for, but the change can also be very negative. We're just going to have to wait and see.
Right now the biggest worry is who has control over the country's nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un is young and has no military background even though he was a general before becoming the great leader. I don't see the people standing up to demand change because the majority of them are extremely poor farmers spread out across the country side. These people are so sheltered from the rest of the world most of them don't even a know a man has been to the moon. As for the videos of people crying over their beloved leader which Shawn pointed out, they should be sad because thanks to Kim Jong Il, they were the lucky ones given a chance to live in Pyongyang and not live a life of poverty like everyone else.
As Sabrina mentioned, it is completely understandable for the people of North Korea to be mourning their leader. Regardless of his father's previous deeds, however, I believe it is imperative that the United States and other countries extend a diplomatic hand to the newest dictator. If we wish to avoid conflicts, we should not be preaching democracy, but rather establishing ties for the future. After all, it would be il-advised to have poor relations with un-other dictator of a nuclear-weapons state.
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