However, the admiral assured that US military has the ability to track the missile and shoot it down if it threatens US territory or allies. In addition, Senator Levin (D-Mich), the chairman of the Armed Service Committee, expressed his view that North Korea would not want to go to war because its objective is survival. Similarly, the recent North Korean threats have not caused much of an uproar in South Korea, which, according an article in Business Insider, has become accustomed to North Korean bluffing.Already, the US appears to be leaving room for Kim to back down: it, for instance, has postponed a scheduled ballistic missile test. It appears that the provocations and threats from North Korea have become some sort of periodic ritual, one that, despite its frequency, still stirs up tension in Northeast Asia and US national politics. In response to North Korean threats, the Pentagon, for example, has sent in B2 and approved the sale of either F- 15 or F-35 to South Korea.
When Kim test-fire missiles again next spring, why not sell the F-22 or X-51 all together since North Korean threat's so overwhelming? It seems somewhat foolish that the US continues to play the game and treat North Korean threats with great attention in this relentless cycle of North Korean provocations. What do you think? Do you (and why) agree that North Korea is bluffing again this time? Should the US take North Korea seriously? Which set of policy do you think the US should pursue in the next North Korean provocation? How could the US break this vicious cycle?
Click here to read more about the conflict if you wish.
8 comments:
I believe that North Korea is still bluffing. They literally have no friends willing to back them now. A few days ago China's newly elected president mentioned zero tolerance for any country willing to throw the world into chaos, undoubtedly referring to the North Koreans. Due to this fact, North Korea would have to be bent on destroying the world if it planned a serious attack. Any attempted attack would bring massive international retaliation against North Korea, surely meaning their demise. Even though this is most likely a bluff, the US should still take the threats seriously, just as a precaution.
Anyone who still takes North Korea seriously can almost be made fun of. Since the time of Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Un's father) North Korea has been making threats about bombing South Korea forever. However, the Kims are not stupid. They know if they bomb South Korea, they risk being annihilated complete. Bam, Nada, Non-existant. And just like Marvin stated, North Korea has no support in the world anymore. China use to be their closest ally, but they've backed out. At this point, North Korea has zero support, and I feel it's only a matter of time before revolution strikes in the country. Oh Well. I personally do hope it is a bluff. I have family that live there and I plan on going to Korea for the summer.
I agree with Marvin and Bruce that North Korea is most likely not a force to be taken seriously. With almost a total lack of support even from China, these threats of missile tests and possible attacks just seem more and more of a joke with the continuing state of decline in North Korea itself. I think that North Korea is continuing this cycle of threats because they have no other way of gaining any international attention. The US should take it at least semi-seriously as prevention but with the lasers that can apparently shoot down these missiles (which I doubt because they are meant for drones), it seems that we feel sufficiently prepared for their threats towards the US and South Korea alike.
I agree that North Korea's threats are nothing new, and perhaps North Korea's primary reason for these threats are mainly to gain international attention (as Alvin said).
However, the rest of the world has little choice but to take all of these threats seriously and try to prepare for retaliation, if necessary. We might be complaining now that North Korea's recent threats are simply just bluffs, but in the hypothetical situation where the US fails to respond to the threats, we would most certainly be whining about the lack of US government action and their seeming indifference towards the safety of their citizens. Therefore, even if the facts seem to say that North Korea will not follow through with their threats, other countries must still take them seriously.
It's too bad that diplomacy seems to be out of the question right now.
It's interesting to compare the situation to Iran, where the potential for nuclear weapons caused a great deal of attention despite less outward threats coming out of Iran. I think the volatility of the situation in the Middle East accounts for this. North Korea seems to have little capacity, but their threats are raising the same level of international concern.
It seems like there has been a general consensus reached about the fact that North Korea is mostly bluffing. However, were I a citizen in South Korea, I would probably be pretty afraid. Threats of nuclear war are terrifying whether or not they are real and possible to be executed.
I hope the international pressure eventually does wear down on North Korea and eventually put an end to this. It seems like the threats of war are a scheme by the North Korean government to build patriotism in a collapsing country. Hopefully in the long run, the North Korean situation can improve with a change of leadership and government.
Going along with the majority, I agree that it is difficult to take North Korea seriously. Even so, it would be smart to most still at least take them slightly seriously. If you have an angry dog barking at you, you won't be too happy if you ignore it and it proceeds to bite your hand because you didn't take it seriously. Also, we all know how well appeasement went in the past. We got a world war out of that, and I highly doubt anyone wants to repeat that incident. As a result, the United State's continued policy of a stern "no" seems fairly good at this point. It's not overly aggressive, but it sends a message.
The thing that always seems a bit off to me is that North Korea is threatening nuclear war with its neighbor. Being right next to each other makes launching a missile incredibly dangerous. It's like trying to kill a guy a meter away from you with a grenade. With a full out nuclear war, there is going to a lot of radiation right next to North Korea. That will flow to them through water and possibly air, and it's not going to be too pretty. All in all, if North Korea does decide to go through with it, it will be a pretty reckless (stupid) move.
Responding to Preston's point on appeasement. Isn't responding to North Korea, giving credits to its provocations by saying "no" so loudly to it, a form of appeasement in itself? After all by saying "no" so loudly, the US is giving it more international spotlight, the exact thing it wants to gain.
Building on Preston's point on the stupidity of a nuclear war considering the proximity of Pyongyang to South Korea, I think North Korea would never actually deploy its nuclear weapon on the Korea Peninsula. Kim may be aggressive, but I doubt he is crazy.
I think, more than just to gain international attention, Kim is behaving so aggressively to solidify his position as the dictator of North Korea. Kim just inherits the throne, and it seems that his control of the regime is not still somewhat shaky, considering how he was almost assassinated in Pyongyang, the capital of the country. Likewise his aunt and uncle still hold have a huge control in the military. Behaving so aggressively on foreign matters could help send a message to his minions that they should not mess with him just because he is young.
Responding to Kevin's point about NO being an appeasement. There is no way to appease a mad man. Look at Hitler. We gave him Sudetenland? and he still ended up invading the rest of Europe. If we "appease" Kim Jong Un, maybe he'll come back to make more threats, or this time actually blow someone up. Even if Kim Jong Un blows up a country, do other super powers want to blow up North Korea? There are still millions of civilians that are totally innocent and ruled by a crazy leader. There is no real productive way to end this predicament. I believe this is what people call a lose-lose situation?
Post a Comment