Despite the strained relationship, experts still believe China's new leader, Xi Jinping, will continue to follow China's past policy of supporting North Korea. The sanctions imposed on North Korea will have an effect on Korea by preventing them from acquiring the high-tech materials needed for creating nuclear weapons, but this will definitely be a challenging issue for the US if China does not use its influence as an ally to talk some sense into North Korea.
Will China continue tolerating North Korea's nuclear program until it is too late? What can we do to get Xi Jinping to help us out on this issue? Also, in last night's SOTU speech, Obama mentioned strengthening missile defenses. How do you think our defense efforts will be perceived by North Korea? Will it deter them or encourage them to hasten their nuclear program?
3 comments:
Ever since North Korea began talks of missile and nuclear tests, China has always backed away, so to speak. They always tell their ally to stop, whether they listen or not. I believe that China will behave this way for now and the near future. As for our own missile defenses, I think that would only push the North Koreans to accelerate their nuclear and missile tests, as they would realize that the United States is threatening them militarily. North Korea is in desperation to harness nuclear weapons since it is outmatched in every way by the US and our allies. Strengthening our defenses would only make them more desperate.
The question of North Korea is especially interesting when considering the fact that both South Korea and China are in the process of installing new leadership. With Ms. Park as the new president of South Korea, the Economist inferred that little would change with regard to foreign policy. However, with the straining relations between the United States (with whom Korea closely aligns) and China, installing U.S. missile defense systems as well as maintaining amiable relations with China, how can the three nations find common ground and defuse the increasingly belligerent time-bomb that is the DPRK?
To return to Aaron's question, on the PRC side of things, China is at a point where it must reconsider whether or not it's current policy of supporting North Korea is the most tenable one. Is it in China's interest to have a what may ultimately amount to a nuclear Iran in the Middle East?
I think our defense effort would have little effect on North Korea's nuclear program. Kim obviously knows that an attack on the US would bring forth the end of his regime; the recent nuclear testing was merely to harness internal support of the regime (to inspire more nationalism/patriotism) and to test Park's new administration. With the horrible economic situation in North Korea, I think the best that Kim could hope for is maintaining the status quo and getting more aids to boost its ailing economy. In the context of South Korea's prosperity, perhaps the new nuclear testing has the effect of reminding others of the presence of North Korea in the region and generating the momentum for another 6 party talk through which North Korea could get something out of?
In terms of China, I think it is so currently engrossed with the issue of shenkaku island that it doesn't want to divert its resources to focus on the North Korean issue, which produced the false(?) image that China might be helpful in the future regrading this issue. While in the short run, Xi might be helpful in halting Kim's nuclear program, in the long run, in terms of the national interest of China, is it worth severing the China-North Korea relationship over a few, trivial nuclear testings? The question of asking China for help definitely confirms the fact that North Korean's nuclear program is another leverage China has on the US. Does it want to give it up?
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