On Thursday, October 21st, President Biden stated in an interview that “[The United States] had a commitment” to defend Taiwan should China take any offensive action against it; for context, China recently tested a hypersonic missile, and the questioner was worried if the U.S. would be able to keep up with China militarily and if they would protect Taiwan, to which Biden answered, “Yes and yes.” The clear-cut statement goes against the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity”, where the U.S., while required to help out Taiwan, is allowed free reign in the actions that they can pursue.
Shortly following President Biden's statement, White House officials, namely, the Secretary of Defense and Spokesperson for the United States Department of State, declared that the policy of strategic ambiguity had not changed. Furthermore, they advised Taipei to “not rely” on the U.S. for matters of independence and sovereignty, clearly showing that the administration is still following the strategic ambiguity policy, even if Biden himself doesn't seem to want to.
Biden has not said this only once, either; in August, Biden spoke much of the same, though White House officials state that he misspoke and did not mean to verbally go against the Taiwan policy. Still, China has spoken out, warning Biden against “sending wrong signals”. Tensions have already mounted between China and Taiwan; very recently, China flew many warplanes over an air defense zone in Taiwan, so the already strained relationship between the two nations (one, in China's point of view, with the independence of Taiwan unrecognized by Beijing) has soured even further.
Questions:
1. Which do you prefer: Biden's ideal of defending Taiwan with (presumably) military force, the current policy of strategic ambiguity, or neither, and why?
2. Did Joe Biden make a mistake by saying what he did? Is it better to posture, or is discretion the better part of valor?
3. Based on the current relationships between the U.S., China, and Taiwan, as well as other world powers that may have a stake in the matter, what do you predict will happen throughout the next few years, and why?
Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59005300
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38285354
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/us/politics/biden-taiwan-defense-china.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/21/joe-biden-taiwan-chinese-attack-defend-516699
9 comments:
As someone whose family is from Taiwan, I would absolutely support the defense of Taiwan, but that doesn't mean anything when it comes to preventing conflict in the first place. The current policy of strategic ambiguity is meant to preserve the delicate political balance between Taiwan, China, and influential nations such as the US. Furthermore, Taiwan currently thrives as a de facto independent nation and few people support a radical move towards reunification or independence. There is also an extremely complex cultural issue given the relative recency of Taiwan's de facto independence with the older generation having experienced the entirety of Taiwan's history.
I believe that Joe Biden probably made a mistake in stirring up controversy as tensions between China and Taiwan have increased significantly. It seems that the US would defend Taiwan regardless of its ambiguous policy but for political purposes, expressing that as Joe Biden did is not a good idea. While there have been past controversies regarding the same issue and I don't foresee this to cause anything drastic, adding fuel to an unignited fire is never a good idea.
Based on the current situation, I believe that the status quo will remain in the short to medium term as an invasion of Taiwan would be considered an extremely radical move, despite the current tensions. Although China's military activity over Taiwan might seem like a foreshadowing of conflict, if the past is representative of the future, these actions are only meant to send a message to Taiwan and the rest of the world about China's power and influence. Generally, I believe that the risk of a war might not be large, but if a war does break out, there will be extremely large consequences. As a whole, the situation between China and Taiwan remains very complicated and both Taiwan and other nations such as the US should do their best to preserve the precarious situation until a solution arises.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA8VoY3dUFU
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/10/13/how-are-people-feeling-in-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/
I partially agree with Alex when it comes to the defense of Taiwan but only in the worst case scenario. If China were to begin a conflict with Taiwan then it would most likely be in the interest of the U.S. as well as other powers to prevent annexation or something like that. Biden was very vague with his response which to me seemed like he was saying that the U.S. is hovering over China and ready to intervene at any moment. At the same time, I would most likely be opposed to going to war over Taiwan simply because it could cause an even larger conflict that affects many countries if not the whole world. Also, as Alex mentioned, Taiwanese citizens are not necessarily leaning towards either reunification or independence.
I think Joe had the right idea in making it clear to China that the U.S. was not friendly to the idea of Chinese encroachment on Taiwanese affairs, however, the way he went about it was not necessarily wise or effective. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, Biden made it seem like he was in favor of violating the policy of strategic ambiguity. While I am not a fan of China's seemingly bold and "sassy" behavior, I don't think it would be in anyone's best interest to create any more tension.
I agree with Alex and Edan in that we should prevent some drastic retake from China on Taiwan such as annexation. It would definitely be more troubling considering that China has been very forceful in the past (Hong Kong) and not exactly the most trustworthy country to perform just actions. I feel like protecting Taiwan can be important from a humane standpoint although the last thing we want is some all out war that could have terrible consequences for China, Taiwan, and the US. I don’t want something where US troops are being sacrificed when we could avoid it. This is why strategic ambiguity is better as I feel it lessens the already existing tensions between the US and China while still holding room to defend Taiwan if something drastic happens.
Biden did somewhat make a mistake. I like how he is being clear, honest, and just putting his opinion out there but there might be some unwanted consequences to his words. For example, as Amogh says, China doesn’t really like these comments and the tensions between the US and China have risen further. It is important that Biden says smart things and doesn’t say something wrong that can lead to even greater consequences. Also, he should be kept in line with the rest of the White House officials so they have a consensus on what’s going on. It would allow the public to also more easily understand what the policy on the situation currently is.
I think China will at some point try to assert themselves aggressively over Taiwan. This may be the use of force which I find is the most likely scenario. I don’t want this to happen but with the current trends, I feel like it is inevitable. The US can try to stop this by giving warnings to China that the use of force may result in retaliation. Of course, this would disrupt the strategic ambiguity which makes this situation very tough. At the end of the day, the US are going to have to make a hard decision.
I agree with the past comments in that the US should try to keep tensions low as to not spur any drastic actions from China. However, the US would need to protect Taiwan from a hostile takeover from mainland china if any volatile actions were to take place. With this knowledge, president Biden's message comes off as a bit unnecessary; as previously stated by Amogh and other commenters, statements like those made by Biden can have negative consequences. I do agree with Alex as well, that in the meantime there does not seem to be any foreseeable change in the status quo, but it would be wise for the United States to stay as neutral/ambiguous in its intentions to avoid conflict further down the line.
I also agree with Bryan that China will eventually force itself over Taiwan, and that preparation for this outcome will be important. For now, I believe that the best course of action would be to keep a watchful eye on China, but not to act first or prompt hostility. This does raise the question however of whether or not the US should act proactively or reactively in regards to how it deals with China. I believe that for now, a reactive plan would work better as stirring unnecessary conflict must be avoided at all costs.
I think the it would be more optimal to switch from political ambiguity and move towards a more military like position on the the protection and the independence of Taiwan. It is important to contain and prevent the spread of Chinese influence in the pacific region, and all things considering the Chinese extension and power over the trade in the area American should show its military might as a counter to it. China has begun to begun to build up its military in a clear bid to try to out compete with the US, it is essential that military action is taken earlier before they can catch up. Despite this being a military build up I doubt the China will seek to increase its nuclear warhead count, considering it has always kept to a minimal deterrence doctrine which is good news for America. Finally pragmatically, US military spending is pretty big so might as well find an excuse to justify that budget. As for Joe Biden's stance on China I think he should be more outwardly hostile to China. Ideally I think he should pursue a Morgenthau-like goal with China: destroying their infrastructure, industry, as well as breaking China back up into multiple states to prevent it from ever becoming a world power again. Ideally China should devolve back into an agricultural based economy with its industry and higher business sectors destroyed. A dis-unification of China should be the main goal of America, as history has shown China, when unified has always strayed towards a more authoritarian stance. Even during the destruction of the Qing dynasty, the Sun-Yat-Sen's revolution ended with Chaing Kai-shek. Furthermore breaking up China into multiple states would allow the US to focus more resources on the more strategic regions of China such as the Guangdong province without having to worry about the other regions. While I could see this hurting the US economically in the short term without cheap consumer goods flooding US markets, I think outsourcing these factories and jobs to African, South American, or Indo-China countries will allow US corporations to sell cheap consumer goods again to America eventually. I could see backlash from other countries as a possibility to this course of action, but I think with such a harsh and destructive policy towards the Chinese, I do not think any of China's allies would stand up to help China.
I feel that the US should stand their ground rather than backing down from China. Currently, China is testing the waters so to say by flying warplanes over an air defense zone in Taiwan. This seems like a show of force which happen a lot of times with countries trying to show force and not be taken lightly. While I see Pascal's point of a more aggressive point it is rather important to stay out of war especially with a country that has access to nuclear weapons. These kinds of weapons are at a world ending scale so this issue should be treated with caution rather than antagonistic action. The US needs to find a line between pressuring China and causing aggressive reactions so that China can be kept under control all while not escalating to war. I agree that the US should definitely help to support Taiwan if China decides to take any kind of war-like action on Taiwan. With more pressure mounting, I think that the US should come out with some sign of support for Taiwan so that China knows what will happen if they take any action. This may help to lower tensions with all parties and hopefully stop any kind of conflict.
On this particular issue, I find myself very conflicted. Morally, I 100% support Taiwan and think absolutely everything should be done to protect its sovereignty against China. However, politically, I think war should be avoided at any costs necessary, unless there is literally no other option left. To further complicate matters, this is also slightly personal to me— while I don’t have any close family members actually living in Taiwan, I do have grandparents who had to flee China during the Chinese Civil War and take refuge in Hong Kong. Because of this, I sympathize deeply with Taiwan’s desire for independence, and understand the importance of sovereignty from China.
Yet I am extremely wary of the horrific war that could ensue if the U.S. decided to intervene militarily in defense of Taiwan. A war between the U.S. and China, currently the two most powerful countries, is probably the worst possible thing that could happen to Earth right now, and it’s actually much more likely than most people would like to think. So in this way, as much as I admire Biden’s firm stance in protecting Taiwan, I do support the current policy of strategic ambiguity. Right now, despite its passive-aggressive missile testing, China hasn’t really physically done anything to Taiwan to encroach on its independence. Thus, for the time being, I think the U.S. should try to keep its head down and avoid stirring the pot any further.
The US made the right call in breaking their strategic ambiguity because it establishes their dedication towards preserving rights in foreign countries. I hope it does not escalate into requiring military intervention, since I think that would 1. be unfavorable by the country as a whole, considering: Afghanistan. and 2. Severing ties with China would both MAJORLY hurt the economy and stop any sort of leverage we had over them to work towards curbing global warming. I think what would end up happening is China + the US diplomats will meet and China will stop clearly aggressive acts that intimidate Taiwan, while also leaving many options of military interference to the territory.
While I agree that President Biden made the right move towards announcing that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against China because the two sovereignties have been close partners since Taiwan was formed. However, I hope that this does not lead towards any form of military intervention, especially since China has been making attempts to threaten Taiwan as seen with them testing hypersonic missiles. I believe that violence is unlikely to erupt and China is merely trying to intimidate Taiwan because if a conflict broke out over Taiwan, the U.S.'s intervention may lead to the entrance of other nations that are allies with the U.S. Additionally, this scenario would leave detrimental economic effects and would severely hurt the economy. While the U.S. has taken a stance towards defending Taiwan, I also believe that the U.S. should not completely turn their backs against China because the two nation's economies heavily depend on each other. In addition China manufactures lots of goods for the U.S. Thus I think leaders from both nations should meet and hopefully establish a mutual agreement.
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