Last month, Lebanon formed a new government, and President was Najib Mikati, a billionaire who’s been holding office since 2005. Bad as it seems, the government essentially was non-existent since August 2020 after they all resigned from the Hangar 12 port explosion. Better than nothing? Hopefully? Combined with the new tax on WhatsApp calls, the lack of accountability for the Beirut explosion mid 2020, and the history of corruption the Lebanese people have had enough. There was fighitng on Thursday, and the two shiite Muslim parties called for a protest to remove the judge repsosnsible for investigating the 2020 explosion. Notably, one of the groups was Hezbollah, a U.S. classified terrorist organization. Today (October 14th) the protest turned into a gunshot battle, the Lebanese army fought civilians, which many said resembled the Civil War days in the 1980s. The Prime minister’s defense was that they needed to teach Hebollah a lesson for exploiting fear to bring more violence into the streets. No matter the organizational conflicts, the fact is 6 people died and the country continued to degrade by the day with innocent Lebanese paying the price.
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BACKGROUND:
Since fall 2019, Lebanon’s currency value has dropped more than 90%; it is in the top 3 worst in the world economic collapses since the mid-1800s. So what happened? Lebanon is known in the Middle East for being the most diverse, with distinct Sunni, Shiat, Christian sects while also housing Syrian dn Palestianian refugees. However, this also created a lot of internal conflict, and combined with its weak, corrupt government left the country in very deep debt. In late 2019, banks began refusing withdrawals and anti-government protests erupted - this all led to the nationwide shortage of dollars. Lebanon does not produce anything for export, so the main source of its dollars were from wealthy investors to their central bank. They would pay back other depositors with new depositor’s money, but when people realized that, it all fell apart. [interesting article comparing the Lebanese central bank being to a Ponzi scheme]. Currently, more than 50% of the country is in poverty, and millions of both Lebanese residents and Syrian refugees are hungry.
However, instead of trying to solve the issue, the political elite continued to argue amongst themselves. An exemplar of the situation would be Beirut’s port explosion in 2020. The government quite literally neglected thousands of tons of NH4NO3, ammonium nitrate, which if you remember from Chemistry class, is an explosive. And so, it exploded. In a devastating event, it killed nearly 200 people, left many others injured and the surrounding buildings destroyed. Many government officials knew about the hangar, including the prime minister and president, yet there has been zero accountability. Protestors believe that events like this are only going to continue ensuing if government officials are not charged for their corruption. Which, it did.
x
BACKGROUND:
Since fall 2019, Lebanon’s currency value has dropped more than 90%; it is in the top 3 worst in the world economic collapses since the mid-1800s. So what happened? Lebanon is known in the Middle East for being the most diverse, with distinct Sunni, Shiat, Christian sects while also housing Syrian dn Palestianian refugees. However, this also created a lot of internal conflict, and combined with its weak, corrupt government left the country in very deep debt. In late 2019, banks began refusing withdrawals and anti-government protests erupted - this all led to the nationwide shortage of dollars. Lebanon does not produce anything for export, so the main source of its dollars were from wealthy investors to their central bank. They would pay back other depositors with new depositor’s money, but when people realized that, it all fell apart. [interesting article comparing the Lebanese central bank being to a Ponzi scheme]. Currently, more than 50% of the country is in poverty, and millions of both Lebanese residents and Syrian refugees are hungry.
However, instead of trying to solve the issue, the political elite continued to argue amongst themselves. An exemplar of the situation would be Beirut’s port explosion in 2020. The government quite literally neglected thousands of tons of NH4NO3, ammonium nitrate, which if you remember from Chemistry class, is an explosive. And so, it exploded. In a devastating event, it killed nearly 200 people, left many others injured and the surrounding buildings destroyed. Many government officials knew about the hangar, including the prime minister and president, yet there has been zero accountability. Protestors believe that events like this are only going to continue ensuing if government officials are not charged for their corruption. Which, it did.
Questions:
The Biden administration has chosen not to get involved, is this the right decision given the painful past of US involvement in the Middle East? Why or why not?
If the US were to intervene, what should happen? What should their limitations be?
The French government have pushed the Lebanese government to enact reforms, but it’s been largely unsuccessful. If the US doesn’t get involved what should the international community do? What is the best way to help Lebanon?
The Biden administration has chosen not to get involved, is this the right decision given the painful past of US involvement in the Middle East? Why or why not?
If the US were to intervene, what should happen? What should their limitations be?
The French government have pushed the Lebanese government to enact reforms, but it’s been largely unsuccessful. If the US doesn’t get involved what should the international community do? What is the best way to help Lebanon?
Lebanese economy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/world/middleeast/lebanon-economic-crisis.html
A fantastic 3D view explaining the cause of the explosion: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/09/world/middleeast/beirut-explosion.html
Beirut Activity now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/world/middleeast/beirut-lebanon.html
Government resignation:
A fantastic 3D view explaining the cause of the explosion: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/09/world/middleeast/beirut-explosion.html
Beirut Activity now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/world/middleeast/beirut-lebanon.html
Government resignation:
3 comments:
I believe the US should intervene in the middle east, but it would likely be very difficult considering the military recently completely backed out of Afghanistan in a major decision, and it would be contradictory to return back to the Middle East. The US leaving Afghanistan was very abrupt and underhand, especially considering their long history in the Middle East and the consequence of them leaving was the Taliban takeover. But that shouldn’t prevent them from helping people who need it, especially since Lebanon is undergoing a massive crisis. The best way to help Lebanon is to provide aid to people who need it the most, and the US should prioritize helping people who don’t have food or basic necessities. The US would probably be very limited when it comes to military assistance, since most troops have left Afghanistan. Other countries are not as restricted historically and geographically as the US is, so it would be interesting to see how the international community reacts.
I would disagree that the US should help the Lebanon people as I really doubt there would be any popular support in the US as of now to intervene, in a situation like this which would probably require some degree of military force would probably sour many to the idea of helping. Furthermore I don't think Lebanon holds any kind of military or economic strategic value due to it's location and high cost of imports. US relations with Israel are already generally strong and I think is enough for us to exert our influence in the region. If the US chooses not to get involved I cannot predict how other countries would behave, either some may see that as a form of US lack of empathy or a sign of weakness. So while I think the International community may look down on the US for a lack of action I think its better than trying to convince the US public that intervention is needed.
I agree with Pascal that the US shouldn't intervene as of now, both given the consequences of the intervention and the instability that it left. However, seeing as the French government has not been able to really help reform the government of Lebanon, I think that both the US (if they are willing to get very slightly involved) and the French should look to other members of the international community for support. Like, for example, the UN, which was founded for the purpose of maintaining security, and which has intervened in Lebanon in the past (see: UNFIL, or United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon). While the UN may not have enough real power to force reforms, there is a definite possibility that they can very strongly suggest them. This can go wrong, however; intervening in general tends to leave bad consequences.
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