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| 2020 Democratic Primaries' Candidates |
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/democratic-polls.html
https://smpa.gwu.edu/gw-poll-finds-warren-gaining-ground-among-democrats
As of October 11th, former Vice President Joe Biden is in the lead with 26% according to the national polling average by the NYTimes, and Senator Elizabeth Warren is just behind with 23%. Furthermore, Senator Bernie Sanders sits at a solid 16% while all other Democratic candidates have less than 4%. These numbers indicate that the Democratic candidate will most likely be either Biden, Warren, or Sanders, but Warren is on the rise and has been since this summer.
This information is made more debatable when compared to the George Washington University Poll, taking information from about a week ago. It found that Warren is in the lead with 28% while Sanders has 21%, and Biden has only 18%. This contrast is huge, putting Biden at 8% less than the NYTimes, and in last place out of the three. This highlights how these numbers are far from the whole picture, and different polling organizations can not even agree who is in the lead anymore.
This fluctuation might be exemplified in today's debate drastically changing the polls. However, this is yet to be seen. The public's opinion will continue to vary until the primaries, and then the actual primaries may result in a different candidate than the one predicted to win. This was seen in the 2016 Presidential Election where most polls agreed that former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, would win, however we all know that was not the case. This flaw in polling could be due to many things, perhaps most of the public has yet to pay close attention to the candidates because the primaries are still far off. Rarely will Americans choose to give no opinion so they may simply be repeating what their neighbor or relative said, and find that come voting time, they find a new candidate.
So polls can't predict the winner of the democratic primaries, nevertheless, everybody has a prediction to make. I personally believe Warren is the most likely winner because she is currently rising in polls, she is charismatic, and she is deliberate about her plans. I also suspect that there is a group in the Democratic party that will vote for her because they want to see a woman as President of the United States. Furthermore, with the recent accusations made against Biden, I believe the public may be less inclined to vote for him, whether he is innocent or not.
6 comments:
It is true that polls cannot predict the winner of the democratic party but they do really help the candidates in finding out where the people are at the moment and what are some key issues that people are concerned/opinionated about. I think during last night's debate, there Sanders, Klobuchar, Buttigieg really did well in bringing strong plans and even attacking other candidates about certain issues, but Warren might have lost her first place or tied first place rank (with Biden) as of last night as she did not shine in this debate like in the previous one. She was definitely attacked by many candidates on her issues such as medicare which might cause the public to change their views about her by a little bit.
This ties back to my blog post (the first one of the year!) where I talked about the first round of eliminations. At this debate, all the predicted removals were not present in the debate and I believe all of those not present have dropped out. Though the Democratic Candidate is likely to be Biden, Sanders or Warren, it is important to remember that Trump was originally a 2% candidate and climbed rapidly after a crucial debate. With fairly favorable performances from Buttigieg and Klobuchar, I do not think we have seen the last of these candidates yet.
Making analysis this early in the election cycle is always dicey given the sheer number of factors that could affect the primaries. Indeed, there are positives for most of the front runners. I agree with the argument that Warren is rising now, as the NYT article cited also reports, and if the current trajectory is consistent, she'll overtake Biden to become the frontrunner. However, a few of the other frontrunners like Sanders and Buttigieg, can't be counted out. Both have extremely successful fundraising strategies - Sanders being one of the first to go for the individual contributions route and Buttigieg hauling in 19.1 mil this quarter, even though he's polling at 4%. This could also be because of his husband, Chasten, who is a fundraising machine. This politico article explains it pretty well, but Chasten gets to speak for Pete as a surrogate that not many other candidates have, making it a unique advantage.
In a race with multiple big candidates, most of whom are taking primarily individual donations, money is a big factor and could tip the primaries.
I agree with your statement that numbers are not everything, Zoe. Perhaps it was just a different polling group that changed the results, or perhaps it was more participant thought about how the debate affects the voter's stance. With time and consideration, many people will likely change their opinions. As Srimaye mentions, many candidates heavily rebutted Warren's stance on important issues during this debate. Given that most voters are not dead set on which candidate they're going to pick yet, these attacks may have been just enough to sway voters against Warren. Also, the moderator brought up the issue of age and health to all three top runners, which may also impact how voters see these candidates in the upcoming conferences. Each of the three top Democratic candidates has a flaw, which may impact them in the polling booths. As Alexander describes, one of the lesser valued candidates could become our next president.
Biden, as of recent weeks has lost a noticeable amount of momentum on the campaign trail, especially as cracks continue to emerge with the spotlight on him. In my opinion, his lead as of now is rather superficial, simply due to how much he has trouble communicating in a manner which appeals to those outside of his main base. Warren has been gaining a bit of traction, getting her name out into the minds of the general public more, she's done a fair job at campaigning herself, and Sanders is showing his own gradual growth. But the main point that I'm trying to make here is that these are just current trends. These polls aren't necessarily indicative of the trajectory of the race in the long run. It's so incredibly unpredictable, especially since the Democratic Party is still partially scrambling from the whole debacle in 2016 to find some sort of unified figure to stand behind. My own personal prediction is that we'll find somewhat of a sleeper hit approaching the primaries in the form of a smaller candidate like Buttigieg. Yet as the race continues, it'll likely become easier, but at the moment, although these polls are a good indicator of where the candidates are currently, it doesn't truly allow for any sort of prediction to be made in complete confidence based off of them.
If I had to guess, I think Warren would win. I agree with Theo that Biden's lead is somewhat superficial now, as when he annoyed his candidacy, he was popular mainly due to his status as the "pragmatic" choice, and now even that seems to be eroding. Sanders seems to be revitalized, and I think he answered possible concerns about his health with his vigor at the debate, but I also think that there is a sense that he is somewhat tired. His main claim to popularity in the 2016 primary was the fact that he provided a platform and promises that were exciting for those in the progressive left camp. Now he's not the only candidate that can offer that. That leaves Warren. I think she's seen somewhat the way Sanders was, but she's helped by the fact that she seems much more deliberate, having a plan for nearly everything. I think that has broad appeal, because she would appeal to both progressive democrats and people more in the center who would be more skeptical of a candidate like Bernie's plans. As for smaller candidates, developments like Trump's rise and Biden's fall might point to one of them suddenly gaining momentum, but for now I feel fairly confident that the nomination would go to one of the 3 frontrunners. There are a lot of candidates, and I don't know if voters would want to put in the time to look into a candidate with less name recognition at this point.
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