The lost youthful energy, that is, that the 2012 Obama campaign seems to be facing.
In 2008, the power of "the youth" was a large contributing factor to Obama's success. Not only was the youth turnout up 2 million from the previous election, but the momentum of youth support came to characterize Obama's 2008 campaign, in a sense, building upon the need for change with a constituency whose potential hadn't always been maximized. "Campaigns," as a New York Times columnist put it, "are planned," whereas "movements are...impromptu." As Obama then stated, “The choice in this election is not between regions or religions or genders. It’s not about rich versus poor, young versus old, and it’s not about black versus white. This election is about the past versus the future.”
But 4 years later with the 2012 elections just around the corner, Obama's campaign doesn't seem to be instilling quite the same energy in the same youth demographic. The same college students that volunteered at campaign offices through all hours of the night, while still likely to vote for Obama, aren't as eager to jump back into the rush. "“It’s hard to be a passionate follower of him,” says Jolie Glaser of University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “It’s easier to be a thoughtful supporter.” Instead, students are more focused on their prospects after college--or lack thereof, as some see it. "I don’t have as much enthusiasm this time as I did last time...Everybody is just focused on themselves and trying to get through school," explains UNLV student Sarah Farr. The election of 2008 provided hope and the prospect of change, but it's been 4 years and the outlook hasn't brightened significantly, if at all.
"...even Mr. Obama’s supporters say it seems unlikely that the president — given the difficulties of these past three years and the mood of the electorate of all ages — will ever be able to replicate the youthful energy that became such a defining hallmark of his campaign."
Obama's message in 2008 can really only have been a one-time use deal, especially given the current job market/economic climate. Obama has lost his novelty; his supporters are faced with the realities of hard facts--not just hope. Constituencies change. Obama supporters will just have to approach the cause differently, this time around. There's no recreating the movement that defined 2008, but that doesn't translate into no hope for 2012.
Pete & Joe
2 hours ago
14 comments:
I agree that Obama losing youth votes can affect his reelection. One of reason why Obama was youth’s favorite in 2008 was because he was cool, however, many youth nowadays do not see Obama as cool as he used to in his pre-office years. The majority of the youth that voted for him in his first campaign seem to be more cynical now since the reason why they had voted for him was because of his campaign idea of change, but the youth have not see much happen. The lack of jobs and the poor economy are also likely source why Obama has lost votes from all his voters. When the economy goes bad, people tend to blame the president and even throw the party in power. Even after the death of Osama Bin Laden many students do not seem impressed.
However, I think that the loss of youth vote is not going to be crucial to his reelection. Obama also won because he had large amount of votes from the older people too. If Obama wants to stimulate youth votes, he is going to have to instill the same confidence that the economy will be much better and that there will be jobs available when college students graduate.
I also agree that if obama losing youth votes will hurt his reelection. I believe if he finds a way to bump up the economy that he will not only get a lot of youth votes but also in general get a lot of votes. I think the death of osama bin laden help him slightly with youth support but that alone wont win majority of youth support.
Although I don't think that young people are as excited about the election this time around, I still believe that Obama has the youth vote, even if young voter turnout is smaller in 2012. And maybe it's better that there won't be as much of the "Chosen One" stuff in this coming election, escpecially among younger people; deifying Obama in 2008 is what led to youth's current cynicism in the first place. I think this should be a lesson to young voters that too much idealism and worship of a politician are a recipe for disillusionment.
I agree that while Obama has not carried out all of his promises, there are still aspects of his presidency that ought be taken into consideration, such as the death of Osama bin Laden.
Another thing for voters to think about (that will be us as well next year!!!) is extremely likely for a president to not come through with all his promises. Bush failed to make good on his promises to reduce the deficit and debt, and to triumph in his "war on poverty," among others. This is something voters must take into account and must remember that no candidate will make good on every single promise. This goes back to a discussion we had during fourth period today after reading the piece on Athenian democracy. Andrew brought up the idea today that voters can be convinced of the validity of something simple based on effective rhetoric, instead of examining the issue at hand.
I agree with Suzy. The youth voter turnout will definitely decrease, but I also think that the newly eligible voters (young adults who were not 18 for the 2008 election) will cushion the decrease a bit. Another factor that may affect his popularity is Obama's student loans plan. It might sway more young voters into his favor. Though the plan itself does not apply to everyone and probably won't have too much of an effect, it may get Obama the votes of the beneficiaries of the plan because it sends the message the Obama is trying to help the young campaigners that helped him win the 2008 election.
I definitely think that there is no recreating Obama's 2008 campaign. There was so much youthful energy then and many were uplifted by the promises of change and turning the economy around for the better. However, when not much change occurred, the interest in reelecting Obama went down and he seems to have lost that power to ignite hope among younger generations. They need to know that their future is promising, and in order to gain their votes Obama would really need to establish strong reasons and ideas for a positive turnaround in 2012.
I would also agree that there will be a drop in the votes coming form the younger demographic for Obama, but I don't think it will be as bad as people seem to expect. Compared to the other candidates, Obama still seems the strongest to most people. If the elections were to be held right now, about 48 percent of the public would vote for him over the 44 percent that Romney would receive (I use Romney because I consider him to be a real candidate). I know that isn't exactly the 2008 election, but that election just won't happen this time around. Two reasons I can immediately name include Obama's economic performance and the fact that in 2008, we had just finished eight years of Bush. That in itself was a good reason to vote for Obama.
Yet I do feel he would fare better if the times weren't so focused on the economy. If a 9/11 type of event happened during the Obama years (an attack on U.S. soil) the public would probably vote overwhelmingly for him because of his track record (which is pretty good for only three years in office). So to get back on the main point, I don't think a loss in some of the youth vote will kill his campaign, but I do think that it is still something that could have the potential to come back and bite him later if the trend continues.
I agree with Taylor's point. I feel that it was the two terms of GWB's presidency, where the economy fell and failed to get better, that left the youth so easily swept by the appeal of "Change" in Obama's 2008 presidency. After a term of little change, I think it is reasonable that the youth has lost it's initial drive. I also completely agree with the point that just because Obama has lost the support of the youth doesn't mean he has lost hope for the 2012 election. In addition to focusing on winning new constituencies, Obama still can earn the support of the youth again. I believe that he just needs to convince the youth, as touched upon in the article, that once they have graduated college, there will be opportunities awaiting them.
Although our nation certainly has a history of politicians sweeping voters off their feet with the idea of "Change" and a brighter future (and Obama's '08 campaign no doubt benefited from that standpoint), I think that the lack of such romanticized "change" during this round of elections won't necessarily hurt Obama's prospects on the ground level. Even if voters aren't as easily impressed this time around, they will eventually come to terms with the fact that "change" is easier said than done and weigh the potential of each candidate before making their decisions. Although the support for Obama's campaign will not be as obvious, I'm sure that it will still be present and the youth will no doubt continue to play a large part in his voter population (even if the flair of the '08 campaign is gone).
Obama losing the youth's interest is obviously going to have a going to greatly affect his chances of being reelected. The youth make up a great part of his supporters.
One of the main reasons why I think he's losing the youth voters is because his name seems more tarnished now and the, for lack of a better term, "coolness" people associate with Obama has deteriorated.
But honestly though, it's undeniable that most youth voters are not at all experienced in politics, and we're all really gullible to believe that Obama has the power to keep every promises he's ever made during the 2008 elections. We forget that the process of government does not concern only Obama and that there are numerous stages in which proposals for change needs to pass in order to be realized.
The loss of the youth vote will affect Obama but not as much as people think. It really depends on who the Republicans decide to be their candidate because Obama could get more of the vote if the frontrunner is not someone everyone likes. Even if there are less of the youth that voted in the last election, there are 4 more years worth of voters who still have the energy because it is the first time that they get to vote.
I agree with Amy. Although Obama may be losing his youth voters, that does not necessarily mean he's losing his chance in the upcoming election. Yes, it may affect him, but only slightly. As long as he keeps his promise about the job plan, I believe Obama will be able to rack up enough voters for the next election. The youth will realize that a better future awaits them and jobs will be provided for everyone.
Wait, I'm confused. I thought Anna wrote in the article that Obama isn't LOSING the youth votes, its just that most are a lot less enthusiastic about voting for him. I mean, of course that lose of enthusiasm will lead to him losing votes that could possibly be gained from peer influences. Can someone please clarify for me?
I also am finding that Obama is no longer appealing to those who used to be so supportive of him. His campaign in 2008 was helpful for his election, but seeing that there has not been all the change he promised, there is a new feeling about Obama. It is sad that most presidents cannot do all that they advertise in their campaigns, but I believe that Obama will still be reelected. Like mentioned in the article, many people have other things on their minds besides presidents and the elections. I think that those who vote (that small percentage) will vote once again for Obama to avoid any sense of uncertainty and because they are more comfortable with him in office. I personally think there should be change and would not be surprised to see a Republican in office in the years to come. From a personal standpoint, no candidate seems worthy of my vote, but I have to go with the one that is the best overall.
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