Shocking results came out from the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. The poll concluded that Vice President Harris now holds 47% to former president Trump’s 44% among likely voters in Iowa.The results indicate a shift toward Harris, compared to the previous Iowa Poll in September, which showed Trump with a slight lead. In that poll, 47% of likely voters supported Trump, while 43% favored Harris.
As well as its mixed demographics, Iowa is also a state where the first caucus is hosted. The Iowa caucus is significant in the U.S. presidential election process as it is the first major electoral event of the primary season. Held in January or February of election years, the Iowa caucuses kick off the selection of each party’s nominee, giving Iowa an out sized influence in shaping the race. This focus can intensify the competition in the state, as candidates see it as an opportunity to gain early momentum, making it a battleground where outcomes are less predictable.
This result from the Des Moines Register poll came as a complete surprise to political observers, as almost no analysts predicted Harris will be leading against Trump. Neither candidate had campaigned in the state, since Trump has easily won the state for the last two elections.
The shift in Iowa’s favored candidate can be traced to the voter's gender and age. The new poll finds women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while male support Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. The survey also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ support, with 55% of likely voters ages 65 or older backing her, to 36% for Trump, while likely voters younger than 35 split almost evenly, 46% Harris to 44% Trump.
Harris’s lead in the poll is fueled by substantial support from female voters, particularly older women in Iowa, who may feel a personal resonance with her platform or identity. If this trend of voters with sympathetic connections to Harris grows in swing states such as Iowa, the current tight race could widen, giving Harris a possible advantage. This presidential election appears too close to call, leaving the final decision up to the people of the country.
9 comments:
This poll result is very surprising to me especially considering Trumps recent wins in 2016 and 2020. I understand that the poll result is reflective of the changing opinions of the old and women, but why do you think that these opinions have changed so much towards Kamala Harris, and away from Trump? Personally I think that Donald trumps blatant misogyny and shaky views on abortion is definitely a reason for women to vote Harris. Older people also probably realize the importance of social security and therefore are obligated to vote for trump. But again we have known this for quite a while now, so what has changed that women and older people are coming to the realization that they cant vote for trump.
*therefore are obligated to vote for harris
I think that this data is really interesting. The thing that stands out the most to me is older people favoring Harris. We tend to associate older people with being richer people who want more funding to social security programs and retirement funds and also they tend to be less progressive. I think that this shift in trend is specifically coming from older women. Kamala as another woman is an appealing candidate because of her vouching for reproductive rights and all rights for women. There’s also been a trend lately of people telling others to not listen to what others say, not just follow your parents, your husband or your friends and vote for who you want to be president and I think with greater resources, women have been able to actually make their voices heard and are voting for the candidate that they really want. 56% of women on the polls in Iowa voted for Kamala, while only 38% of men did. This is not a coincidence. Now this doesn’t mean Kamala is going to run away with the vote, as we discussed in class, polls are just noise to make money off of interesting findings. But if these results show on Election Day it is likely Iowa will swing back to being Democrat after 2016 and 2020 voting for Trump.
It is very interesting that such a change took place, and I wonder if this can say something about swing states in general. I imagine something like this may happen again, or possibly we can compare this to any trends in the past to help narrow down the unpredictability of swing states. Even though it is just one state, this election is very close and I think this may cause both parties to reevaluate their parties for the remainder of the race. This is somewhat unrelated, but it is interesting to see that on the poll only 3% of people said they are unsure. and also only 3% voted for Robert F Kennedy. The results really show how polarized the political landscape is.
I think the shift in support towards Harris from Trump is pretty intriguing. These shifts throughout the election season is what makes elections in battleground/swing states so interesting. Since Iowa is one of the few states that holds a caucus and the first state to hold one, there is a lot of media attention. As seen through the past elections where Obama won the state in 2016, and Trump won the state in 2020, the final cast can go either way and it is important that the candidates leave a good impression. What surprised me was that Harris was able to get her voice through the people in Iowa despite the fact that she didn't participate in the caucus(Biden did). I guess that can be accounted for the data that many women supported Harris(liberal), and men supported Trump(conservative), a common trajectory we learned in class.
I find it interesting that the state of Iowa seems as if it may end up in support of Harris, as neither candidate had campaigned in Iowa, and therefore it seems logical that the state would continue to lean Republican as it did in 2016 and 2020 for Trump. I feel as if Trump's stance on abortion has definitely played a role in turning Republicans in Iowa, especially female, to vote for Harris even without campaigns, for his stance on outlawing abortion is so extreme. However, it shocks me that the youth (those under 35) are split almost even in support of the candidates, as it is common that younger generations lean more liberal. Additionally, younger individuals (women) are those that will be affected by Trump's federal abortion ban. I can kind of make sense of this polling result however, as it is common for the younger generation especially to gain their stance on elections from social media, which contains lots of misinformation and twists stories in ways that can put one candidate in a bad light. For instance, the widecasted story on social media of Kamala Harris allegedly lying about working at McDonalds can put her in a bad light for individuals who know little about her polices or character, and even cause voters so caught up in media "drama" that they emotionally attach to voting for the other party, Trump, and nearly equalize polling results.
I think that it is very interesting that such a poll has come out so close to the election. A massive shift like this definitely has the chance to change the Iowa election and even the presidential election. Also, the pollster, Des Moines Register and Mediacom, are the biggest newspaper in Iowa and is pretty reputable. However, I think its important to mention that the 3% lead that Kamala Harris has within the poll is within the 3% sampling error that the survey has. This means that statistically, this poll doesn't really mean much, as within the poll, the two presidential candidates could be tied, or Harris could have a lead as high as 6%, which isn't very likely when taking into account all the other polls. I think that a poll like this is really more of an outlier, especially since both presidential candidates have not spent their time campaigning in Iowa. In my opinion, Iowa is going to be like a lot of other swing states, with razor thin margins, but is going to matter a lot less in the overall election with only 6 electoral votes.
Also, Donald Trump mentioned this poll in one of his rallies: he said that they were biased, and intentionally swung the poll towards the left by interviewing more democrats, which is ironic, as that's exactly what happened. When they polled people, they interviewed more democrats than republicans.
Returning to this after the election... the poll was wrong and the most conservative polls were right. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 so I'm not writing this comment for the sake of going "RIP this blog post," but rather to comment on the curious nature of polling. The compensation of the polling boost for Kamala Harris nationwide due to Democrat performance during the midterms was not because of the Biden/Harris administration and national Democrat advantages and surges but because people that won in those times, I believe Shapiro and Whitmer among them although I might be wrong, did not attach themselves to the unpopularity of Biden, but rather campaigned on their own issues and won in divisive states that Trump sweeped nationally. Ticket splitters are another curious phenomenon naturally and I'd like to dig into that more, but in the aftermath of the election, it is clear the polling either had statistical bias in the swing leftward or just the inclination to vote and participate in polling is not reflective of the true population, with by a gut check and proven voting record (the only real poll) is a Republican stronghold.
It is very interesting to take ground in a sate like Iowa after Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020. It's also interesting to wonder why she might be gaining ground in this state whether it is for a specific reason or maybe a multitude of reasons. One clear explanation is Harris's stance on abortion and her saying that she will do what she can to get Roe vs. Wade overturn. With hindsight though after the election the poll does seem to be wrong as Trump did win Iowa pretty convincingly getting 56% of the votes. With polls being wrong also with Hillary it is interesting to see how democrats response and reaction to polls in the future will be.
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