As the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passes on Feb 24, the war enters its third year with the US imposing sanctions on more than 500 targets connected to Russia’s war machine. Amidst heightened tensions between the two nations, the Biden administration's decision to impose this fresh slate appears to be in response to the death of Alexey Navalny. Navalny, who was imprisoned in 2021, has been a source of opposition against Putin, devoting his time to orchestrating a few of the largest anti-government protests in recent years and exposing corruption within the Kremlin. President Biden, who decided to meet with his widow and daughter, blames Putin for his death, claiming that “If Putin does not pay the price for his death and destruction, he will keep going.” While Congress struggles to reach agreements in providing aid to Ukraine, Biden continuously reiterates the dire need to support Ukraine, claiming that without it, “the costs to the United States — along with our NATO allies and partners in Europe and around the world — will rise.”
The new slate of sanctions displays the US reliance on financial tools to hinder Russia’s war effort and apply pressure on its economy. While previously imposed sanctions ranged from being cyber-related to ceilings on exports, the recently imposed sanctions target Russia’s core financial infrastructure, along with those entities that are helping supply Russia with critical technology and equipment. While Russia has appeared to adapt to the series of sanctions levied by the US and other Western governments in the previous years, this recent announcement has been marked as “the largest single-day tranche of sanctions” and the Biden administration hopes to severely deteriorate the Russian economy. Yet with the West’s sanctions having thus far appeared as mostly failures in efforts to deter Putin’s motives, the effectiveness is uncertain.
The new sanctions begin digging further into Russia’s military supply chain, pursuing enablers in countries such as China and the United Arab Emirates. In fact, more than 24 entities providing Russia with assistance have been added to the sanction list. They include the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, which has enabled the production of attack drones used against infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine. Additionally, Russia’s two largest companies, SUEK, whose transportation and logistics operations assist the military, and Mechel, a specialty steel producer, have been targeted. This time, the Biden administration went further than simply major defense companies, also imposing sanctions against manufacturers of “lubricants, robotics, ball bearings and batteries used by the Russian military.”
Furthermore, a major sanction has been placed against Russia's state-owned National Payment Card System Joint Stock Co. The NSPK is the “central bank-owned operator of the country’s Mir bank card — set up in 2014 as an alternative to Visa and Mastercard.” This widely used payment system has been targeted by the US Treasury as Russia has used it to bypass payment blockades by Visa and Mastercard since the invasion.
(President Joe Biden delivers remarks to US governors attending the National Governors Association on February 23: https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/23/politics/sanctions-russia-navalny-ukraine-biden-administration/index.html)
While the Biden administration has attempted to propose much greater foreign aid packages, all efforts are currently being blocked by Republicans in Congress alongside Trump’s opposition. Displaying the impacts of partisan majorities within Congress as we discussed in class, Kyiv and allies have made dire attempts, calling House Republicans to back the proposal in hopes of US military and economic support falling through.
The Russian economy has grown by more than 3% since last year, which is faster than the US, yet US officials claim that such was only due to military spending that only makes Russia more vulnerable to targeted sanctions. Even with Russian energy dropping around 40%, they earned roughly $99 billion in oil and gas revenue last year. As the Biden administration attempts to explore further possibilities by taking much more drastic and aggressive measures, broader considerations hinder them. For example, even the cutting off of Russian oil sales may lead to a spike in prices, thus resulting in increased revenue for them while low-income nations are hurt. Over the past 2 years, around 2,000 sanctions have been imposed by Western nations in an effort to deteriorate the Russian war machine, yet expectations for many have fallen short. And while the new slate of imposed sanctions appears much more aggressive and addresses sectors previously left unaddressed, the expected effectiveness is truly uncertain.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/23/1233410578/biden-russia-sanctions-ukraine-war-anniversary-navalny
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/23/politics/sanctions-russia-navalny-ukraine-biden-administration/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/navalny-prisoner-swap-putin-russia-intl/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/23/us-sanctions-russia-navalny/
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/16/europe/alexey-navalny-russian-activist-obituary-intl/index.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/24/russia-economy-west-sanctions-00142713
5 comments:
Sanctions are an interesting way to show disagreement with the actions of another country. It reminds me of cancel culture with celebrities, except on a larger, worldwide scale. I feel like the issue is that Russia is still a large, powerful country with which it can be useful to have economic relations. In this sense, the US is sacrificing that economic gain for its moral stance against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Maybe, overtime, the impact of these sanctions will prove effective, as it isolates Russia from the rest of the world. The issue may stem from Putin's unwavering motivation to continue the war against Ukraine, despite US sanctions and other economic pressures, but hopefully the economic burden of the war will at some point become too great and it will finally come to a close. I like that Biden is targeting the economic aspects that are specific to the Russian military, as that is the most relevant to what he wants the US to denounce.
It's interesting to see how the effects of the sanctions will play out in the long-run...maybe we are not seeing the immediate effects, but it will turn out to hurt them more later on. My main question is whether or not there are any major downsides for the United States in enacting these sanctions. What are potential negatives to this?
I agree with Carole that sanctions are a very interesting way to oppose the actions of Russia. Even though significant results aren't seen at this moment, hopefully in the near future we can start seeing results because the US is very much on the edge of danger if not already crossed the line. I do think that Biden's administration is very much under pressure at the moment especially with elections coming up soon. Also the fact that its protecting and aiding two countries under attack is a lot more pressure and a lot to deal with. I think that the pressure is starting to be seen and acknowledged even more by the public after Aaron Bushnell set himself on fire infront of an Isreali Embassy in Washignton, DC. Aaron streamed his death on Twitch which lead to many people seeing the horrific scene. Aaron stated that he no longer wanted to be a "complicit in genocide." This started a debate and broke people into sides about how the US is dealing with the Isreal-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/man-sets-himself-on-fire-israeli-embassy-washington-dc/index.html
Sanctions are definitely an interesting approach, but the way things are going, they don't seem to be the most effective. As Mir points out, the Russian economy has actually grown in recent years, despite US sanctions. Pretty much the opposite of what the US is trying to accomplish. While there are some exceptions like Navalny, I don't think relying on internal resistance will be effective either. The propaganda there is STRONG. Every TV and radio channel plays the same "the US is evil" message on loop, and people are believing what they're told. I can't believe it's already been three years since this war started... hopefully it'll end soon
The Russia-Ukraine war has posed some interesting questions relating to the future of wars. In the last 20 years, there seems to have been a decrease of physical combat, compared to most of the 20th century. It's difficult to know whether sanctions have/will do anything substantial to the Russian economy, but it seems that sanction-type strategies have become far more common than physical warfare. I also think that economic globalization has made warfare less common. Although there is animosity between China and the US, the two countries are too economically dependent for there to be any sort of all-out war.
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