A tough choice looms for approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic enclave in Azerbaijan—whether to abandon their homeland and seek refuge in Armenia, or stay, but risk experiencing potential ethnic cleansing and repression. This follows a swift and forceful military operation initiated by Azerbaijan, whereby the region was captured earlier this week.
Nagorno-Karabakh, though acknowledged globally as part of Azerbaijan, has been under ethnic Armenian control for the last three decades. Azerbaijan's recent military offensive took control of the region and killed over 200 ethnic Armenians. Faced with military pressure, ethnic Armenians in the region were forced to declare a ceasefire.
"The 120,000 ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will leave for Armenia as they do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan and fear ethnic cleansing, the leadership of the breakaway region told Reuters on Sunday" (CNBC).
The Arminian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan has said that the Arminian government will “lovingly welcome our brothers and sisters from Nagorno-Karabakh.” However, where the 120,000 potential refugees will live is unclear.
Armenia has also expressed dissatisfaction with its long-standing ally, Russia, citing a lackluster defense of the area. However, Russia’s foreign minister dismisses the accusations as “ludicrous.”(BBC) Russia has positioned hundreds of “peacekeepers” in the area for years and in general, Russia serves as the dominant power for the region as a whole. Armenia may seek to strengthen ties with the US in the future.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to reassure the ethnic Armenians who choose to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh, promising equal treatment and integration. Azerbaijan has also repeatedly denied allegations of intended ethnic cleansing, as Azerbaijan Foreign Minister, Bayramov has said “I wish to reiterate that Azerbaijan is determined to reintegrate ethnic Armenian residents of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan as equal citizens.”
The crisis is inherently complex, presenting not only a grave humanitarian challenge but also underscoring intricate geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus. The area is of strategic importance due to oil and gas pipelines. It is also home to an extremely ethnically diverse population (the cause of many past conflicts). Countries such as Russia, the US, Turkey and Iran have also been jostling for influence in the area.
Already the first wave of 400 refugees has crossed the border into Armenia. More will likely follow in the coming days.
This story is very new so it's likely more information will be available soon (although the general conflict in the region has been somewhat ongoing since the unraveling of the soviet union). Hopefully one of next week's bloggers can provide an update of sorts.
Regardless of what happens next, this serves as a reminder to be grateful for the social freedoms we experience in the US. The freedom to worship is not global and unfortunately, conflicts like this result from the lack of acceptance. (Armenians are Christian, while Azerbaijan is primarily home to Muslims).
It will be interesting to see how the US national government exercises its right to deal with foreign affairs over the next days and weeks. Advances in global connectivity, communication, and technology have led to more foreign issues being raised with the US government, representing an informal change to the Constitution as Congress and the president hold more power than in the 18th century. What do you think the US government should do if anything?
7 comments:
Kostas, thats very interesting and it definitely helps explain why Russian defenses did not hold up. Another theory I've read is that Russia may just be devoting more of their resources to the Ukraine war and commitments in the greater middle east just aren't at the top of their list of priorities. The theories are very similar and I think its very possible that both are true. Also according to npr it seems that the 2000 Russian troops simply did not act against Azerbaijan's offensive which reeks of politics and supports your claim about relations with Turkey.
Despite the aforementioned assurances Azerbaijan has promised to the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ethnic Armenian leaders are claiming thousands are without food or shelter, with only one International Red Cross delivery of 70 tons of food being let through in the at least 5 days. Russia claims to have delivered aid, but the amount is unknown. At the moment, Nagorno-Karabakh is largely invisible to the outside world, with the few areas the media were allowed to see being empty of civilians. To combat this, Armenia has urged to UN to start a mission to moniter any violation of rights, with U.S. Senator Gary Peter (D-MI) also calling for the right for the world to observe. As long as there the world can not see exactly what is going on, the Azerbaijan blockade on the only route into Nagorno-Karabak will lead many to either flee or starve.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66888945
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66901759
The US probably wont send military aid or any sort of aid in Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh because it has and still is providing tons of aid to ukraine since Russia invaded it back in 2022 and I don't think it would benefit the US to get involved in this war right now. Although as Konstantinos said it would be smart for the US to support Armenia in this crisis because it would allow the US to create a good pathway to getting closer to the russian borders, this could help futher invasion to be stopped by the US. I also think that this invasion or conquering on Nagorno-Karabakh is very similar to the invasion of ukraine becuase many UKraine citizens had to flee thier homecountry in order to survive and many were misplaced and/or seperated from families. I also think that we should be grateful for the freedoms we experince here in the US and that we don't leave in a fear that we might need to flee. Russia has also been trying to form new foreign relationships, like with North korea and China. It is possible that Russia is doing this to get more ammunition since it has been isloated from the help of other countries/nations. The new realtionship between Russia and Turkey could possible bring them help or backup.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/world/asia/china-russia-ties.html
In my opinion, the U.S. government should play an active and responsible role in addressing the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation there is deeply concerning, with the risk of ethnic cleansing and humanitarian suffering looming large. The U.S. should use its diplomatic influence to pressure all parties involved, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, to cease hostilities immediately and seek a peaceful resolution through negotiations. It's also crucial for the U.S. to provide humanitarian assistance to the displaced and refugees, partnering with international organizations to ensure their well-being.
I can't fathom how hard it would be having to leave your home behind without knowing whether you'll ever see or live in it again, and possibly never seeing people you know---friends, co-workers, classmates---ever again. The future would be too uncertain to know what it holds. I think this situation has a lot in common with the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war, in which millions of Ukrainians fled their homes and became refugees. The United States recently announced that they would be sending $11.5 million in humanitarian aid, but the Armenians living in America are still very unhappy, which makes a lot of sense, given the fears of a second Armenian genocide (the first in 1915 in which 1-1.5 million Armenians were killed). Personally, I think the United States should send more. If we can invest tens of billions of dollars in the Ukraine-Russia war, we can use even a tiny of fraction of that to help Armenian refugees.
the U.S. government should take a proactive and accountable stance in dealing with the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. The current state of affairs is alarming, with the looming threat of ethnic cleansing and humanitarian distress. The U.S. ought to leverage its diplomatic clout to urge all parties, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, to halt hostilities promptly and pursue a peaceful resolution through talks. Additionally, it is essential for the U.S. to extend humanitarian aid to those displaced and refugees, collaborating with international organizations to safeguard their welfare.
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