According to Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, 1.85 million people in Georgia have already voted early in the Georgia runoff election for the United States Senate.
To win Georgia’s senatorial seat in Congress, candidates must win 50% of the vote in the general election. After both Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker fell short of this 50% requirement in November, the state initiated its runoff process between the two candidates.
Currently, the record-breaking voter turnout has favored Warnock, who has captured 52% of early votes. If Walker, a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, loses, his campaign will lengthen Trump’s list of failed endorsements, serving as an indication for Republican leaders to distance themselves from the former President and his efforts for the Republican presidential nomination.
Similar to the 2020 election, Democrats have won 50 seats in the Senate; however, two Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) have demonstrated that they are willing to dissent against the Democratic party’s Senate leadership. Manchin, a Democrat from a particularly Republican state, touts himself as a “conservative Democrat,” a stance that is necessary for him to maintain support in the heavily Republican West Virginia. Similarly, Sinema is a centrist-Democrat that will only support tax reforms benefiting Arizona’s economic growth. Manchin refused to vote for Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act until the program’s proposed budget was significantly reduced, and Sinema opposed a clause in the Inflation Reduction Act that closed tax loopholes for hedge fund managers, law firm partners, etc.
If Raphael Warnock wins re-election in Georgia, Senate Democrats will have a much easier time passing bills. A 51-49 split in favor of the Democrats will reduce Manchin and Sinema’s ability to halt Democratic bills and grant Democrats majority control in all Senate committees, allowing Democrats to form more favorable reports for Democrat-backed legislation and bring more bills to the Senate’s voting floor.
The nation’s founders intended the Senate to be safeguard against majority tyranny of larger states. Slim leads in party control give a small handful of Senators, such as Manchin and Sinema, massive leverage to pass legislation that benefits their constituents. Although this may have been the process of bargaining and compromise that the founders wanted, it contributes to policy gridlock. With Republicans winning the House this election cycle, the Democrats will already have a difficult time passing legislation. Warnock’s victory would reduce the chances for gridlock by shrinking the Democrats’ hurdles in the Senate.
Sources:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3758843-five-reasons-why-the-georgia-senate-runoff-matters/
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/02/georgia-senate-runoff-early-voting-00071944
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/31/joe-manchin-hails-deal-inflation-reduction-act
19 comments:
It seems to me that every day Trump grows unfavorable as a candidate for 2024 from his false statements and endorsements that have clearly failed. The Republican party will have to go through a major shakeup if they want to regain ground in the future. I think the "policy gridlock" you mentioned is a clear issue with politics currently in America. It seems to me that both major parties are just fighting to get a majority in the house or senate to pass bills that will just eventually be filibustered. I think political polarization has led to a dysfunctional congress in which for the most part members of each party are strongly opposed to others and are unable to cooperate for the betterment of the country. This election cycle has led to a loss of Democratic control in the house and depending on this election will clearly affect policies and bills for the next couple of years leading into the 2024 election.
This portrays an interesting topic that's in the conversation in class today. Reveals the processes congress and the government in general go through, and connects them to the government today. The policy gridlock is portrayed through the Georgia Senator race. Both candidates put forth their, similar if you will, agendas, and they tie in their senate race in the normal time: November. Their policies and personas are so similar that they tied during regular processes. They are now in a runoff as the top two candidates and they are forcing people to be more involved in politics due to the necessity of information on the very similar politicians, despite their different political parties.
This seems similar to the situation that we saw in the documentary in class. If one democrat or a few appear hesitant to support democratic bills, they can ask for basically anything they want. Because their vote is so important, other democrats will concede and change the bill. In the documentary, Democrats gave Nebraska a better deal than the rest of the states regarding health care just because the democratic Nebraskan congressman required it. Now, it is the Arizona senator who wants better policies for Arizona. It's interesting how that can happen and a few random Senators end up with more power than others.
I agree with what everyone has said so far. Trump has continued to lose popularity hurting his party and causing many issues. In addition, the fact of the matter is that both parties are fighting each other to get majorities in the house or senate because they want to pass legislation that solely helps them. Realistically speaking, in order to pass the legislation they want, they will need to make concessions like Obama did in the documentary, and that is the only stuff that will get done. It will be interesting to see how the next few years play out and what legislation is passed due to the switch in power and the 2024 elections 2 years away.
I think Walker's existence is another prominent example of a trend of newer Republican politicians becoming less qualified and less honest, but still being popular. This trend probably didn't start with former president Donald Trump, but he's definitely the most notable recent example. It may not also be a trend that's only in one part, but the only examples I've heard most recently where they had a chance of winning an election were all Republicans. This is pretty worrying as the system kind of depends on the less qualified candidates being weeded out, no matter how popular they are, but if they keep getting elected especially on one party, the division between Democrats and Republicans will most likely continue to grow rather than diminishing.
If Walker fails to win this election, I believe there is no other explanation than it is due to President Trump’s endorsement. Brian Kemp, a streamlined Republican, won Georgia’s governor race by nearly 8% against popular Democrat Stacey Abrams. Kemp refused to support Trump's faulty claims about election security in his state and steamrolled Trump-endorsed primary contestant David Perdue. Though he is largely a traditional Republican, by not supporting clear conspiracies he was able to win the “traditionally” red state. Kemp was able to gain independent and moderate support, something that Walker might not be able to do. Walker has played into Trump's claims of “election fraud” and so far it might deter these middle-ground voters from support his campaign. I am interested to see if Walker will try to continually break away from Trump and which voters (Republican/Democrat) will turn out to vote in this runoff.
I wholly agree with everyones statements that have been made. The Georgia Senate election has, in my eyes, been notably one of the most popular elections. With, as Ben mentioned, the Democrats being able to hold the majority but also the loss of Herschel Walker being another stab to Trump and his hope for running for reelection makes the election even more important in the eyes of the American people. With Walker already being a questionable figure, being backed by Trump, his statements on abortion and the evidence that has come with it, and so much more it highlights, as Peyton mentioned, the lack of qualification towards a candidate who would uphold such an important position. The mentioning of “gridlock” is an important note to mention, as being discussed in class, it causes such a big issue on the House and Senate floor and makes it almost impossible to ever pass a Bill through Congress. This gridlock might allow for the President to feel the incentive to carry out an executive order, which in itself, causes a whole other range of issues and debate.
I see the Georgia Senate election as a positive stepping stone into the upcoming 2024 election. With Trump announcing his re-election for 2024, it has sparked even more problems, as he continues to claim that the 2020 election was fraud. 3 Days ago he revealed that he wants to terminate the Constitution except the 5th amendment, claiming that he, "hasn't read the Constitution, but from what he has been told, it's a waste of paper". In his original social media post (posted on saturday 12/3) that has thus been deleted as of Monday (12/5), he stated that "A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution," asserting that their was fraud in the 2020 election. He then denied that he ever suggested this termination stating, "“The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to ‘terminate’ the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES". This continuation of unwillingness to accept defeat is highlights his lack of qualification to be president. Now that Warnock has won I'm interested to see how many other Republicans are going to support Trump now that they've seen Walker ( someone who has continuously supported Trump) lose.
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-calls-for-termination-of-constitution-except-fifth-amendment
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/05/trump-terminate-constitution-00072230
With Warnock's recent victory over Walker and the Democrats' official majority in the Senate, the party is now safeguarded against lone senators from voting against Democratic legislation in the Senate. However, while this is a win for Democrats in the Senate, in reality, this gain won't benefit Democrats much, as the Republicans now control the House of Representatives. This will require that any national legislation must have some level of bipartisan support (either a majority of Democrats and some Republicans, or a majority of Republicans and some Democrats). While either scenario is possible due to the very narrow party majority in each chamber, the likely outcome will be policy gridlock, as polarization is prevalent and bipartisanship unfortunately seems to be out of favor. Hopefully, this situation instead sparks a revival of bipartisanship in government instead of continuing the polarized politics of the last few years.
As Warnock has now won the seat in Georgia, the democrats now have so more control in the Senate. Although this is an influential win for the democrats, the problems that will arise given that the house is republican will not disappear. President Biden will have an increasingly difficult time passing legislation as republicans in the house will most likely vote along party lines and combat democratic bills. This win prevents the republicans from controlling all of congress, which would have even worse consequences for Biden. It's also quite unique to see how despite those two senators being Democrats, their devotion to representing their states needs goes against the party leadership. This is just another example of how although party affiliation plays a large role, the voting behaviors and priorities of individual members of congress are equally important and cannot be overlooked.
"Policy gridlock" is a major issue in today's politics in the United States. This prevents it from getting bills passed in congress, sort of giving the power to the president resulting in a major issue. It can be noted that both parties seem to be fighting to get a majority in the Senate or house so they are able to pass legislation that would help them. Like in the documentary we watched in class if they want to pass legislation they will have to compromise. But all of these things leading up are making Trump a very unfavorable candidate for the 2024 election. And it is overall hurting the image of the republican party.
Now that the seat has been won by Warnock it will be much easier to pass legislation through the senate for Biden. It is possible he will try to pass parts of the bills that were previously removed. The increased Democratic control also greatly reflects Trumps failures to sway the majority of the American population. He put himself against many, and is most likely at fault for the republicans failures in this election. -Zachary Peachin
This ties to the idea of the filibuster. If one party in the Senate is able to wield a filibuster to stop the passage of a legislative bill to get any further into the process of passing legislation, then it could stop a party's desired legislation to be passed. This ties in with the idea that if Warnock wins reelection then there's a chance that their ability to successfully pass a bill won’t be as hard as it already is. Similar to the congressional redistricting process. If more of one party is able to get more seats in the House of Representatives, then they will obviously have more influence in the nation. There are currently 50 republicans and 48 democrats and 2 independents in the Senate at this moment, so it’s extremely important that Warnock won the Georgia's Senate Race because if he didn’t then the Republicans will have more power in the passing of legislation, which will obviously make it harder for the democrats to pass a bill of their desire without having the Republicans wield a filibuster or stop it from passing.
As Republicans have continued to receive disappointing results over the last three elections (2018 midterms, 2020 presidential election, and the 2022 midterms), all of which Trump played a huge role in. As his endorsed candidates and the Republican party fail to win, Trump has become increasingly less favorable. Mitt Romney, a United States Republican senator, claims that "at some point, [the Republican party has] got to move on and look for new leaders that will lead us to win." This doesn't seem to be a good sign for Trump, who plans to run again during the 2024 presidential elections.
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2022/12/07/kiss-death-mitt-romney-blames/
Biden will most probably use Warnock to attempt to push legislation through the Senate, even with the filibuster. It will be interesting to see how Biden uses this seat to his advantage.
This comment is made after the Georgia election, however, I still agree with all of the points you referenced. Donald Trump's semi-recent announcement claiming he wants to run for reelection impacts the weight of these senate elections. I thought your statement about Trump's endorsement of certain candidates and the ways in which this influences the public's view was interesting. Now that Warnock has won, it will be interesting to see how Trump's decision to run will shift, along with his supporters' beliefs. I also think the voter turnout this year, in comparison to years past, reveals that there has been positive progress made when it comes to public involvement. This year's increase in voter turnout most likely had a substantial impact on the outcome.
I agree with Adrien with Warnock winning the seat it would be interesting to see how Biden uses the seat to push legislation through the Senate. I am glad Herschel Walker took the loss well because compared to another candidate supported by Trump Kary Lake it is good seeing that not every republican candidate follows the idea that there was election fraud and tampering. But I do believe this could send the Democratic Party led by Biden to pass more bills through the senate floor, that can boost us as a country.
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