On this Sunday 11/21/2021, Chile is having its general election. Similar to our election, the Chilean election couldn't be more polarizing (if not so more than ours). Chileans have been very discontent with the government with civil unrest brewing everywhere. In 1974, Augusto Pinochet became president after leading a coup de d'etat with the help of America under the guise of destroying communism. Following him were a string of other presidents who came into power through the oligarchical nature of the Chilean political system. Last year there was a referendum (that won overwhelming support) to rewrite a new constitution, due to the unequal representation in the government. With the referendum passed the convention to rewrite the constitution has already occurred.
Even with this political reformation, Chile is still very politically divided. This is reflected by the general election for the new president that will be taking place today. Currently there are two prime candidates that are on the forefront of the election. First, Gabriel Boric is a young and recent politician who is currently the candidate of the Apruebo Dignidad (the Approve Dignity). This is a left wing coalition party formed during the constitutional convention. Boric has been focusing his campaigning on the social reforms that had been the main focus of the previous protests and constitutional convention. His opponent is Jose Antonio Kast, a previous presidential candidate in the 2018 election. Kast is part of the Republican Party of Chile which also has the wider support of the Christian Social Front a conservative coalition of right-wing parties.
While Kast’s campaign has been focused on the traditional conservative values: anti- abotion, tax cuts for businesses, and focalization of social policies. Kast has also pushed for more extreme measures such as a withdrawal from the UN, increased funding to the police (even stating the police were in the right to crack down on the protesters), criminalizing same sex marriage, and building of a barrier to prevent ilegal immigrants from entering the country. Kast has also been credited with saying very controversial things, such as his support for the police crackdowns, and even supporting the previous military Junta that used to be in power. Despite all, this he still has a very good shot at winning the election as many polls predict him winning the most votes in the first round of voting.
Many factors can be attributed to this. Boric’s coalition has much of its support from the Chilean communist party, which many Chileans view as too radical, even more so than Kast. Though Boric has tried to appeal to moderate voters, many still feel that his coalition, should he win, would be too unstable and liberal. Though in reality due to this course of action by Boric some in his own coalition view that he is too moderate and may choose not to vote for him in the first round of elections (Chile being a runoff election system). This is compounded by the fact that many Chileans feel that little change has come from these protests and reform, feeling that Boric’s promises are empty. Many decide that Kast’s promise of stability and economic development is more important than social change. I also think the values Boric has campaigned for such as pushing for a smaller carbon output and indeginous peoples rights are simply things that the average citizen feels are not important during a period of economic decline.
Since the election is taking place today, I do not know the results of how the election will play out. My prediction is that while Kast may win out in the first round of elections, I think the run off vote Boric will have a greater chance of winning as the further leftwing parts of his coalition may reconsider and be forced to vote for him.
What are your personal opinions on how the election will turn out?
Or if you write this when the election is over explain what factors you think contributed to whoever’s victory
Who would you have voted for in the election if you were to vote, or are voting in the Chilean election
Do you think Boric should have kept with his strategy to try to appeal to more moderates or should he have stuck with more liberal policies to keep his coalition more cohesive?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/20/americas/chile-election-kast-boric-intl-latam/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/04/americas/chile-constitution-assembly-intl-latam/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/21/world/americas/chile-election-boric-kast.html
Jose Antonio Kast
Gabriel Boric
5 comments:
I think that right-wing candidate Kast will win the general election of Chile. In 2019, when protests against former President Piñera over wealth inequality grew violent, riots and arson resulted in at least 18 dead, 7,000 arrested, and with Chilean businesses losing more than $1.4 billion. In addition, Chile is the world’s top copper producer and has long boasted one of Latin America’s most prosperous free-market economies.
Boric’s radical approach towards the economy can be seen as unnerving to some Chileans, many of who are reliant on the stability of the copper market. A plummeting copper price and tensions could lead to the downfall of the export-dependent economy, though.
So far, it seems like Boric has a good chance at winning the election. Polls from Activa Research and Cadem indicate that Boric is very likely to win. However, as we talked about in class, sometimes polls can be misleading because people say what they think others want to hear rather than what they actually think. Another thing to think about is that almost 88% of the Chilean population lives in urban areas and Boric is trying to reach out to a lot of younger, urban voters. So, he could possibly be very successful with that group which could get him a lot of votes. However, Chile also has more of an electoral college system for general elections, so the popular vote could be different from the electoral college vote. It’s really hard to tell who will win this election as both candidates seem to have some strong support, but it seems like Boric might have a little bit of a lead over Kast right now.
Research links:
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/leftist-chile-presidential-candidate-leads-new-poll-dec-19-vote-looms-2021-11-29/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/455791/urbanization-in-chile/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Chile#Changes_to_electoral_system_in_2017
Similar to what Elizabeth mentioned, an article from “The Guardian” recognizes how Kast has also been able to appeal to a wider audience (Tik Tok videos for younger viewers). Because of the polarization between the two candidates, analysts are also afraid that “people might end up voting against certain policies, rather than in favour of what they actually want” (Rosas, The Guardian). With Boric narrowly pulling ahead in the polls now, based on this data alone it seems that he is the likely candidate to win. However, the same article as mentioned recognizes how “some of the things Boric stands for don’t respond to people’s urgent needs” (Rosas, The Guardian). This demonstrates how the election really comes down on what issues the people want to address first. Personally, I feel that Kast has a good chance of winning as he’s affirmative with his views and highlights the importance of stability. This blog post mentions how Boric’s own coalition is questioning him, causing his credibility to lower potentially. Overall though, I wouldn’t be surprised with either candidate winning or losing considering how close it is; it all essentially comes down to how moderates will vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/22/jose-antonio-kast-chile-right-wing-presidential-election
I completely agree with some of the comments above who really emphasize why Kast has a great chance of winning. Unfortunately, the election is not scheduled to be officially conducted until December 19th, so I can't comment on that front. But I think what's interesting about Kast's campaign is that he comes during desperation for change. Similar to Obama'disadvantage in his reelection because he served his previous term at the wrong time, during an economic decline, he was often blamed for the state of the economy even though one could argue it was just bad timing. In Chile's case, Kast is Mitt Romney and Boric is Obama because the left has had control recently and even though Boric hasn't served as president yet, he may face a disadvantage due to simply running at the wrong time. Going forward, I think it'll be interesting to see how media and the spread of information/misinformation will play a role in the campaign. One disadvantage that the Democrats of Chile may face is the rise of variants and worsening condition of the pandemic. Because the Democrats feed off of the Demonstrators in the streets protesting for equality, indigenous rights, and more, the pandemic is really seeming to hinder their ability to protest and feed into the party's exhaustion. Another interesting piece to note is the support of the wealthiest that Kast has obtained. In cities like Vitacura, Las Condes, and Lo Barnechea, he has about 50% of the vote, the largest of any one candidate. The Congress also seems to be quite divided between Boric and Kast, again indicative of the immense polarization and turmoil that lies in the upcoming election. With the conclusion of the general, I look forward to seeing how the next 2 weeks play out and I hope the economic decline incentivizes Chileans to vote based on policy and educate themselves heavily on the candidates' to create legislature in their best interest as opposed to simply candidate-based voting.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/01/chile-presidential-election-reform-backlash/
I agree with the prediction that Kast will win the election, due to the results from the first-round presidential vote which showed Kast in the lead followed by Boric who fell short by around 2%. However, due to recent news about Kast’s family’s past, his character(emphasis on family ties) seems to be called into question when documents revealed that his father was a member of the National Social German Worker’s Party(Nazi Party): which was voluntary to join, unlike military enrollment which was mandatory. During this election process, I can see a trend similar to the election from 2020 between Biden and Trump, due to the increasing polarization between both parties, especially with the candidates themselves not having any middle ground and having completely opposing stances. According to analysts, low voter turnout and undecided voters could be two disadvantageous factors for either candidate. If I were to vote in the Chilean election, I would vote for Boric as his ideas of progress for the future align with my beliefs such as guaranteeing social rights. Kast, on the other hand, wants to stop immigrants from entering Chile, is against abortion, and as mentioned in the blog post, he also opposes same-sex marriage and same-sex adoption rights. I do think that Boric should continue to stick with his liberal policies to keep his coalition more unified which will provide him votes from liberal voters. In order to attract moderate votes, Boric should tone down some of his extreme rhetoric, but still, keep his liberal policies aimed towards social progress.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/boric-vs-kast-chile-set-for-polarized-presidential-election-run-off.html
Post a Comment