[Erica Palan]
CNN Politics
Will he or will he not be impeached? This question has been a broken record recently but, alas. I shall play it just a bit more.
As a brief, generic explanation for the process at this point, the House of Reps. has the responsibility of oversight and investigation to bring forth the charges against a particular official. For now, the House authorized an inquiry into Trump and Ukraine. Then the Senate holds the actual impeachment trials, which necessitates a two-thirds super majority to convict anyone.
As of right now, the House Intelligence Committee has a report of the findings about the alleged quid pro quo exchanges between Trump and Ukraine and yadah yadah yadah. The Committee is allowing members to review this report on Monday before they must approve the report on Tuesday. After this, onto the next committee it goes. The report is transferred to the House Judiciary Committee before its first impeachment hearing which will serve as the basis for the articles of impeachment that will be presented. At this hearing four constitutional scholars (three chosen by Democrats and one by Republican) are supposed to testify. Apparently Trump will not be participating in the hearing.
For some reason, maybe because it is a bit too complicated to follow (?), the committees and subcommittees are shrouded in obscurity when it comes to common political knowledge for youngsters and adults alike. For example, before taking a government/politics class, I had never known that committees were such an integral part of decision-making. In fact, most decisions are deliberated in committees, not completely on the floor. With that said...
Questions:
~What do you think about Trump not appearing for the hearing? Is it a good call?
~Even if Trump does not get impeached, how do you think this will effect the 2020 election?
14 comments:
I think, the President's plan to not appear sends a message he and his party have been sending since day one: that nothing illegal occurred and the inquiry is thus illegitimate, unfair, and unnecessary. To appear would be to acknowledge the validity of the impeachment probe, something that, at this point, will most likely never happen. This move by Trump is in character, will please his base, and help his reelection campaign. That being said, he should not be constantly criticizing the validity of process from outside, hiding behind his executive privilege, if he is not willing to do the same on the inside, getting it all out on the record. Impeachment or no impeachment, those who oppose and support the President will stay on their respective sides and vote that way too. The thing to look out for is those in the middle and if they will move to support the President in question, as they did with Clinton.
From the third CNN source, Trump arguing that he has the "'absolute right' to ask other countries to investigate corruption" is not necessarily absolute. Sure, the presidency is the figurehead for foreign affairs, but to ask other countries to meddle in America's own personal affairs is a threat to national security, undermining the essence of the presidency, ironically. This is America's presidential election, not Ukraine's nor any other country's. It's also a generally bad personality trait to attempt to find dirt on an opponent, rather than to improve on one's own campaign or character. As it stands right now, Trump as a lot of food on his plate to clean before he can reach for another's plate. Regarding the hearing, being MIA is an incredibly inconsiderate decision, considering the graveness of the objective. It's only proper to appear to the hearing, but not necessarily to make any further claims. All he needed to do was simply appear to be a somewhat reasonable person, for once. Sure, appearing to the hearing would acknowledge the validity of the impeachment, but to ignore the claims, especially in a scene of professionalism, is simply infantile. Trump, from his initial campaign, should have never had a chance for presidency, due to his incompetence, unprofessionalism, and licentious demeanor.
For Trump to be impeached, it depends on the makeup of Congress after the 2018 midterms. The odds of it happening with a Republican-controlled Congress are very low. Something would have to happen that made it immediately obvious, without need for an investigation, that Trump needed to be removed. I think during the 2020 election, there will be a caveat. The Democrats appear powerless to change the lurch to the far left of the political spectrum. Perhaps this really is because the old moderates have become hidebound and are bereft of a single new idea. Or perhaps they are offering tacit approval to annex the space usually reserved for extreme socialism.
Bill Clinton was impeached in the House and then acquitted in the Senate. With the parallels between the Clinton and Trump impeachment, I think that it is possible for Trump to be acquitted in the Senate as well. (Democrats needs ⅔ majority in Senate to convict; current Senate has a Republican majority). Given that, I agree with Sok Py. Trump may be impeached but still win re-election in 2020.
Personally, I think that if Trump did appear for the hearings he would cause even more confusion and turmoil in the congressional hearings that Democrats do not need, for he is known to go off into tangents, avoid questions, and personally attack those asking him questions. Furthermore, it is not necessary for Trump to appear before the House Judiciary Committee because of the committee's democratic majority; it is extremely likely that Trump will be impeached in the House and later acquitted in the Senate because of its Republican majority. Sadly, with the extreme partisanship in Congress, I'm not even sure if an extremely "Nixon Tape" esque piece of evidence would change the minds of Senate Republicans. Many people in this country are influenced by their fixated views of the President, partly enhanced by biased media, to ever change their opinions regarding whether the President deserves to be impeached and/or removed from office. For this reason, I do not believe the impeachment process will affect loyal Trump voters in much of the deep southern states; However, I do believe that if the Democrats illustrate sufficient evidence in their articles of impeachment, they have the ability to sway more moderate Trump voters in the 2020 election.
Personally I think Trump is trying to finish all that he started in the office because as new eligible voters come of age, it seems to be getting harder for Republicans to continue winning, however we will need to wait until the 2020 election. I think this is reason Trump has not been attending the trials as he deems it unnecessary. I agree with Ana about how Trump will create confusion in the hearings and if the Democrats truly want to get their point across, I think it is better if Trump was not there to cause issues. For the 2020 election, many moderate Trump voters have already said they realized voting for him was a mistake and so even if the Democrats are not able to portray the case properly and sway voters, I think Trump has little chance to win reelection.
Given the unorthodox state that American politics is in today, I am not sure what will happen in the coming election; this will largely depend on who the Democrats nominate as their presidential candidate. Notwithstanding, the American people must hold Trump accountable by either voting for him or not voting - I am not so sure that the Republicans will be able to rally right-leaning moderates behind reelecting Trump and build a strong political base (indeed, some political analysts theorize that perhaps the Republicans will just ride the next election out and quietly let Trump crash and burn, but I have my doubts).
Personally I believe that if Trump appeared in the hearings, he would only cause more problems and confusion. What started as a whistleblow has resulted in Trump to pressure the new government to launch a politically charged investigation. Trump only wanted two things: he wanted Ukraine to prove a theory that its own political tried to sway American voters in favor of Democrat Hillary Clinton. Second, Trump wanted Ukraine to look at the 2020 political rival. This quid pro quo could likely lead to Trump's impeachment with the majority vote. In this case, the "something for something" was about done and presidential summit. With the amount of money involved for this "favor" I do think it is likely for Trump to get impeached. Ultimately, I think that Trump will have little chance of winning the reelection.
I believe that Trump's decision to not show up for the trial is bold, but only gives more fire for Democrats to throw at him. Not that Democrats need any more fire to throw. This impeachment feels like an argument between the parties rather than an investigation into whether the leader of our entire country committed an act of "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." It is frustrating yet not surprising to me that many Republicans are firmly supporting Trump when he has not only admitted to his crime but also that in the hypothetical, the Republicans would attack any Democratic president who tried anything similar. This is all not an attack against Republicans, it is my belief that the Democrats would react similarly if the situation was reversed. I just think that our party system is far too broken if we have reached the point where our president can do anything he wants and be backed by his party.
I believe that impeachment is still unlikely because of this partisan separation, however, I believe that Trump will lose his Independent and moderate supporters that won him the election last time because of all the controversy now surrounding Trump. Furthermore, Trump, like many presidents, wasn't able to follow up on many of his promises, so I think many people, particularly the working class from the Mid West, won't vote for him.
I think it's a good thing that Trump will not show up at this stage of the hearings. The impeachment process has already been a sticky and confusing one and I think Trump's presence would have only worsened this situation. Although the word "impartial" is very difficult to apply in politics, I think this stage of the hearing will be able to be more "impartial" or at least more freely spoken without Trump himself in attendance. Secondly, I think this impeachment process will have somewhat positive effects on not only the 2020 election but future elections as well. I think we can all tell from all of the reading and research we have done for class, but there have been serious abuses/misuses of presidential/executive power over the years. Many of these instances have gone unpunished too. I think this impeachment is showing the public that enough is enough and if it comes to a certain point, the government will put their foot down. I think it shows that there are certain limitations on the presidency and reinforces the message of checks and balances that the public has felt was lacking for some time now.
Given that Trump's not showing up has been well discussed, I'll offer my thoughts on the second question - the impeachment's effect on the 2020 presidential election.
The outcome of the trial will matter somewhat, but neither outcome will kill Trump's chances of reelection in 2020. The thing with attack politics where one side attacks the other is that Trump is a different player and a variable actor in these situations. He's not afraid to get uncivil, impolite, or even aggressive, which many politicians throughout the years have shied away from. That means that the impeachment will only serve to be an attack point for Trump. If the House impeaches Trump, he's going to have so much material for Twitter and campaign rallies it'll make "Lock Her Up" seem insignificant. Trump gets to aggravate his base, whip them into a frenzy, and increase turnout with more successful "get out the vote" drives as well as better fundraising. If the House doesn't impeach Trump (which is pretty unlikely at this point), Trump gets to show why even the Democrats can't stop him, and strengthen his 2020 bid either way.
Similar to what I said on one of your previous posts, Trump should not be able to get away with not participating with the law. Just because he is the president doesn’t mean he can escape the law and avoid consequences. He should take accountability for his actions. Trump not appearing for his hearing is a bad call; it reflects badly on him. However, if he did show up to his hearings, it may not have been good for him. He may have made things worse for him and cause more problems. So, I am conflicted because if he showed up, it would’ve made matters worse but him not showing up also reflects that he doesn’t care very much and doesn’t want to clear up any confusion or take accountability for his actions. I’m not sure how this will affect the 2020 election.
I agree with Albert that impeachment will give Trump plenty more material in 2020. I don't think impeachment will affect the 2020 race much because I believe that voters have already made up their minds on him. If some people haven't begun to listen to any evidence against Trump, they aren't going to start now. I agree with Zoe that impeachment is more like an argument between parties now, because its become so partisan, and battle lines have been so firmly drawn, that no one is likely to change their mind on anything. It has become a pro/anti Trump situation.
I feel like that even if Trump ends up getting impeached, it could still positively affect him for the 2020 election. Since the House is Democrat controlled, it was kind of already predicted that Trump was going to get impeached. However, removal from office is pretty unlikely as the Senate, which is who will vote on whether or not he should be removed or possibly even acquitted, is Republican controlled. Trump being able to "triumph against the enemy" will only cause Republican approval rates to rise as it paints an image of a strong leader. If the Senate moves to acquit him, that'll only help Trump even more. I feel like the main outcome of this impeachment will just be a reinforcement of political polarization that'll cause Trump's Republican supporters (especially the radical ones) to want to vote for him more in the next election. And since those with strong opinions are the ones who make up most of the voting demographic, this will definitely impact the 2020 election.
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