Kansas Political Drama

                                                                       (Wikimedia)
The New York Times just wrote an overview of a pressing current event in Kansas. It all started in 2012 when Tea Party Republican Governor Sam Brownback passed sweeping tax cuts that, among many things, cut the top income tax rate by 25 percent. These tax cuts produced large benefits for wealthy state residents, while coming at a cost. The state is projected to have large budget shortfalls, which could lead to (and in some cases already has led to) cuts in public services, namely education. Furthermore, there is a giant debate over whether these tax cuts produced the economic growth that the governor said they would when he passed them. Also, these cuts led to Moody's giving the state a credit rating downgrade. Some conservatives maintain that they are working, while other people argue that they are not. 

So now for the political drama: Because of the supposed failure of these tax cuts to produce the growth they were intended to produce and the way they could lead (and in some cases already have led) to cuts in public education, over 100 Republicans endorsed Brownback's opponent the upcoming Kansas gubernatorial election, Paul Davis. Now, the race is very active, with Paul Davis seemingly leading in the polls. 

Now, people were very surprised to hear that not only was a Democrat in the lead for governor, but Republicans were endorsing him, for a couple reasons:

1) People see Kansas as a very conservative state, and for good reason. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (a measure of how much a state or congressional district tilts Democratic or Republican) score of Republican+12 (for reference, California has a Cook PVI score of Democratic+7, while Virginia has an even one [so basically R+0 or D+0], and Oklahoma has a Cook PVI score of R+17).

2) It is an off year (there is no presidential election), and the President is NOT popular in Kansas. When it is an off year in a place with an unpopular president, the president's political party typically does really poorly (think of the 2006 midterms where Democrats won big and the 2010 midterms where the GOP won big).

But we have to remember that there are a couple factors (other than the very controversial tax cuts) that make this possible in Kansas's political climate:

1) Kansas has a long history of electing moderate Republicans. The biggest example would be Bob Dole, the Republican candidate for POTUS in 1996. Another would be current Kansas Insurance Commissioner Republican Sandy Praeger, who spoke out against her party even before this tax business arrived (she was a large proponent of implementing the Affordable Care Act "correctly," or as the administration intended it to be implemented, in Kansas, which didn't make her any friends within the Kansas GOP). Praeger is one of the Republicans endorsing Davis. I think that knowing that the Kansas political climate has been friendly to moderate Republicans before may have eased these GOP officials' concerns about possible political ramifications that could arise from endorsing Davis.

2) Kansas is a decently politically elastic state (not the most, but above average). Political elasticity is a measure of how willing voters in a state or are are to vote for people of different parties. It is basically of a measure of how many swing voters as a percent of the electorate (those who are "up for grabs" and aren't bound to vote for the same party each time) a state has. It is closely related to how many independent voters a state has, as a percentage of the population. BUT, be sure not to confuse an elastic state with politically balanced states like Florida or Virginia; a state could have a lot of independent voters, but of those who do vote for one party of another, there could be way more Republicans than Democrats, or vice versa, creating an imbalance and giving one party a clear advantage in elections. Kansas is one of these states—while it is elastic, on average, it votes solidly Republican, because while there are a good amount of swing voters, of the people who aren't there are way more who vote exclusively for Republicans than exclusively for Democrats (confused? Read Nate Silver's piece. It is awesome). So, this means that Kansas, while on average voting for Republicans, CAN elect Democrats, explaining why it isn't unreasonable to see Davis up in the polls, especially after this tax cut controversy. In fact, former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius served as Governor of Kansas not too long ago, and from 2007 to 2009, Kansas sent an evenly-split US House of Reps delegation to Congress (there were two Democratic Reps from Kansas and two Republican Reps from Kansas). Meanwhile, Alabama, which is about as conservative as determined by Cook PVI, but MUCH less politically elastic, hasn't sent a House of Reps delegation to Congress that has been anything other than majority Republican since 1995 to 1997, when Democrats were more commonly elected to office in the South anyway (the switch of the Deep South from blue to red has been more gradual than the APUSH textbook suggested).

So, now for a couple questions:

1. There is still an enormous debate over whether these tax cuts have been effective at promoting growth, and if they were worth the cost. What do you think? Here is a New York Times editorial criticizing the tax cuts, and here is an article from Reason, a libertarian monthly magazine, supporting the cuts. You can glance over these two articles to see what arguments and pieces of evidences you find convincing.
2. How would you feel if a candidate you supported endorsed someone of the opposite party, maybe even someone you don't endorse? Are you furious at them for maybe not sticking up for their (or their party's) principles/candidates? Or do they earn points in your mind for being "independent"? Or both? Or neither?