If you are reading this post I assume you have some back story on the events that have transpired over the past year over Ukraine and her neighbor Russia. I will not go into exuberant detail about Crimea or the "Ukrainian" rebels.
Most of Eastern Ukraine has a Russian majority and of course there is discourse and some fighting, but to the scale of anti-air to down jets, or stem pro-Kiev forces from making inroads on sparsely populated areas. Finland and other neighboring countries are on edge after Russian military exercise, and most of the former Warsaw Pact countries are looking to NATO or the UN to step in.
The rebels in Ukraine have been heavily armed and even trained to the handling of the weapons that have come out of seemingly the air. A good quantity of the international community is pointing at Russians to stop supplying and cease any operations close to the border.Ukraine is worried, they see their land and their people under threat from an oppressor that kept Europe under an Iron Curtain for close to 50 years. To just answer the question on how desperate Ukraine is getting they recently Applied for NATO membership, and leaving their neutrality in the dust, as more confusion grows at the borders of Ukraine. And more confusion grows from the U.S. to Kiev to straight to the minds of Russian citizens themselves. With no formal declaration of war or even a press conference to state where soldiers are being sent many families are wondering what happened to their sons, and are they at war with Ukraine? A question everyone has been asking for the last few months.
Obama recently said we would keep military intervention on the back-burner for Ukraine but would declare formal war if Poland or any other NATO country is threatened, should we protect Kiev and deeply scar Russian ties?
What are your views on Putin? What is your reaction toward this new "Premier" or new "Savior" depending on your views.
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4 comments:
With our mutual history I think it'd be pretty tough for the US's relationship with Russia to become even more "scarred." Still, I doubt the US would risk any kind of military intervention—we've gone with a rather cautious approach these past few months. A core issue is that Ukrainian oligarchs have economics ties (esp. relating to energy sources) with Russia that are extremely tough to break. This is why we're seeing the tug-of-war for Ukraine between Putin and Europe. I think a major step to ensure stability in Ukraine would be to secure economic independence from Russia... but I also know that though the US and other Western countries have been trying to find other sources of gas for Ukraine, their efforts have had little effect on the situation.
While I agree with Valerie that US-Russian relations are undoubtedly poor, going to war with Russia over the Ukraine would certainly worsen these. As you have stated in your post, the US would get more involved should Russia threaten "any other NATO country," however in light of recent news regarding Lithuania and the fact that President Dalia Grybauskaite has already come out to say that Russia is essentially at war with the EU, the US's stance on this issue becomes even more clear. These words from a world leader in the President of Lithuania certainly give the idea of all out war more credibility, but President Obama has made no such direct statement and as such does not act as if this was the case. Personally, I think we should protect the Ukraine as it is clear in my eyes what is going on with Russia, but it simply isn't going to happen at this time. When speaking on the issue the US may imply such things but will not outwardly say them in this fashion. As you've said it is even now a "question" as to whether or not Russia is at war with the Ukraine, and as long as there can be even the slightest amount of doubt to feed confirmation bias, I personally doubt any thing greater than the current sanctions will be done against Russia.
From what I recall, some of the more disputed areas fall on some massive shale and natural gas deposits tht are estimated to contain around a trillion tons of fuel. This untapped energy source has the potential to dismantle the Russian monopoly in the area, which may have played into their intervention (though this is just speculation). Despite the subtle parrellel to nazi germany (Crimea and the Rhineland, Ukraine and Belgium or something) I seriously doubt Ukraine will be accepted into NATO, as that would mandate every memeber nation provide military aid if(when) Russia's acts are deemed aggresive acts of war. I doubt any super power would risk an all out nuclear war with a Cold War super power. They seem to be reluctant to put in harsher sanctions let alone military intervention.
In my belief I feel that we are no longer dealing with Russia. We are dealing with Putin, an ex-KGB agent who manipulated, cheated, and stretched the law to meet his needs, who sees his own interests at risk in the baltic. We have not been the most assertive as we once were (Syria's red line vs. Iraq, Afganistan) and the supposed reset we had with Russia has done little to nothing in diplomatic ties. Putin's Russia has a GDP less then that of Italy, and placed in a war where they are on the offensive against; Autocratic Hungry, pissed off Ukraine, Polands new arsenal, the possibility of NATO and guarantee of their support. Russia has no allies in this situation and they are seeing how much they can take. The sanctions have little effect because there is almost nothing that will affect that Bear for it does not effect any of us. No one wants war as it destroys economies, families, nations, and lives of so many, but is there a point where we tell them to stop. Putin is not a new Hitler, he is a new Stalin, using the same excuse for taking Poland in '39 as he does now, to protect the Russian minority/majority.
Here is an interesting map I found that uses social media to keep live updates on the situation in Ukraine. Although it is a bit biased with a name like "Map of war in Ukraine" http://liveuamap.com/
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