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| Hugo Chavez lost his 2 year fight against cancer |
Following the Venezuelan Constitution, a presidential election to replace Chavez must be held within the next 30 days. Until then, the Venezuelan government has stated that Vice President Nicolas Maduro will serve as an interim President. Also a member of PSUV, Maduro is an obvious favorite to win the upcoming election. Running against Maduro is Venezuelan Governor Henrique Capriles. Capriles is the governor of the second most populous state in Venezuela, Miranda. Although a charismatic politician who is a favorite among the people of Miranda, "Foes say he is really an 'ultra-right' politician in the pocket of Venezuela's pro-U.S. traditional elite, but masquerading as a real progressive." To read more about the eccentricities, criticisms, and histories of both candidates, click here.
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| VP Nicolas Maduro |
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| Governor Henrique Capriles |
“I urge the Administration and the community of democracies in the western hemisphere to keep a watchful eye on the security situation in Venezuela in the coming weeks and months. We must help encourage a leadership transition in accordance with Venezuela’s constitution and avoid a vacuum that is filled by power-hungry and violent forces seeking to maintain the status quo. We should instead support Venezuela’s democrats committed to writing new, more hopeful chapters in their country’s long and proud history.”
On one hand, Rubio encourages a "transition in accordance with Venezuela's constitution," but he also speaks against tyrannical leaders who seek "to maintain the status quo." He continues on to state that the US should support "democrats committed to writing new, more hopeful chapters." Mr. Rubio, are you proposing that Venezuela should write a new Constitution, one that is more favorable to US diplomatic interests? The US has already been accused of attempting to overthrow Castro and the Venezuelan socialist government... In 2002, Chavez blamed a failed coup attempt on then-president George W. Bush. More recently, in fact today, VP Maduro attacked the US for being somehow responsible for Chavez's sickness and death. The US promptly denied the accusations, calling them "absurd." Anti-US sentiment only continues... "Do not think that the situation of pain over the health of President Chavez will translate into weakness" says Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua. Clearly, Venezuelan leadership is maintaining its opposition to the US. President Obama released a similar statement today:
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| Just one example of anti-US imagery in Venezuela |
Yes, I believe it is clear that the US, with the support of both of its major political parties, supports increased diplomatic relations with Venezuela at this pivotal moment in Venezuelan history. Both Rubio and Obama stress the importance of "democratic principles" in the coming months. But until the election does happen, somewhere within the next 30 days, Venezuela will both mourn and celebrate the death of its both beloved and loathed leader.
Now to you... Which candidate do you think will win the upcoming election? Will Maduro's control of Venezuelan media in the next 30 days make him a virtual lock for the presidency? What actions do you think the US should take to ensure that its best interests are fulfilled in Venezuela? Does Rubio really support the "writing" of a new Constitution, or is it a mere coincidence of diction?
4 comments:
Goodness, yeah, I saw this on the Colbert Report. He joked that Jon Stewart was going to rule Venezuela.
On a more serious note, I think Maduro will win the upcoming election. Why? a) people are often afraid to move from status quo, and b) that whole stuff about Capriles being in the pocket of the pro-US traditional elite probably isn't going to pass easily by the Venezuelan people. And for goodness' sake, I hope the US just keeps its nose out of it. We've seen how getting involved in foreign elections is either awkward or even dangerous in the past, so let's just stay out. An example of this is even Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's endorsement of Romney (who, if you didn't know, lost). Now Obama is visiting, and that should definitely be not awkward at all. "Oh, yeah, you endorsed the other guy, but here I am!" Joys and wonders.
Taylor—I saw the same segment last night, too! Colbert sums it up perfectly: "Obviously, this leaves a huge hole in South American politics—and an even bigger collection of flag track suits." If you guys haven't seen the episode, you can watch it here (it's worth seeing Stewart with a photoshopped red beret). I also think that Maduro will win the vote—if not out of the need to keep the status quo (as Taylor mentioned above), then either out of fear or what this Reuters article calls “the Chavez ‘sympathy’ factor,” i.e. “the popularity of government welfare programs among the poor and the huge institutional advantages Maduro has as the incumbent.” The article goes on to quote an unnamed Western diplomat in Caracas saying, “This election is not going to be about Capriles versus Maduro, it'll be Capriles against Chavez's ghost.” Despite the fact that Chavez’s welfare-wooing drove the country into major debt to China, I doubt that Venezuelan voters will choose Capriles after voting him down only five months ago. In fact, it seems as though Chavez’s death could only fuel voter commitment to Maduro (unless it gives a relatively greater boost to Capriles’ opposition…? Thoughts?).
*Edit: By "Capriles' opposition," I actually meant "the opposition led by Capriles."
I agree with Taylor. When a country is faced with a change in leadership, they tend to stick to something close to what they had before, hoping that caution will be the better part of valor. It's the reason that most presidents (and other elected officials) running for reelection win. I think this phenomenon can be seen best in an example from Poland: a few years ago, the prime minister died in a tragic airplane accident. His party then ran the prime minister's identical twin in the next election, hoping to keep power. (http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/453/nemeses?act=1#play) The identical twin didn't win, mostly because he was inexperienced in politics, but it goes to show how much familiarity plays a role in election politics.
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