Originally, it was believed that "In Gallup’s first tracking poll of the general election, Romney took 47 percent to Obama’s 45 percent nationally."
However, yesterday another poll was released which showed that Obama had a nine point edge over Romney in the election. (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/16/cnn-poll-gender-gap-and-likeability-keep-obama-over-romney/)
Also, another poll was released by the Washington Post which showed that Romney had a low favorability vote.
With the polls constantly switching from favoring Obama to favoring Romney, it appears this presidential election will be a very close race.
My question to you all is that do you think these polls truly will predict the outcome of this election? or, do you believe that polls only play a small part in the election and may just be fluctuating to keep things interesting?
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
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5 comments:
I think that these polls are a good generalization of public opinion. They probably don't play a huge part in elections, and most likely won't predict the outcome of the election. If it's really that close and fluctuating, there is no true way to know until the final election. And each poll is in different places with different people, it can only really generalize the opinion at that time. I definitely don't think they are just fluctuating to keep things interesting, I just think people are still on the fence at this point. It seems that people are increasingly voting based on policies and platforms rather than party, so many are still unsure of who's policies they favor, Romney or Obama. That may be why it changes so often, since there are new things for people to base their decision on everyday. Issues arise and opinions are formed. Anything the candidates say or their position on an issue can really changes a voter's opinion depending on the voter.
I agree with you Kristen, I tried to see if I could see the actual poll, but it wouldn't let me. Wordings of these polls could also affect the true outcome. I think overall though, the election will still remain pretty close.
While I don’t doubt the viability of such polls, or their methods of data collection, I would agree with the above comments and argue that such numbers are rather meaningless as of now. As even noted in the cited gallup poll, “History shows that the candidates' positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes.”
To add to these comments (and potentially reiterate Kirsten's), I think that many voters' opinions right now are based most heavily on each candidate's image, exhibited particularly by sound bites like Romney's multiple gaffes. One could argue that these polls are therefore ultimately meaningless, since the majority of voters have yet to become informed on all the policy positions of both candidates; nevertheless, these initial perceptions often bias voters all the way to Election Day and may cause them to put less weight on the candidates' policies, even after getting educated about them. In other words, these polls may actually turn out to be a good predictor of the outcome in November, to a certain extent. Like Jennifer, I wish I could see the actual wording of the poll because I'm also wondering how conservatives responded to the question, considering they may be on the fence with respect to the moderate Romney.
I would say that polls, while normally somewhat indicative of voter opinion, hold even less weight in this particular election due to the past waffling of Mitt Romney. Evident in many of the speeches he has given after winning states, Romney has shifted away from the hardline conservative stances that he needed to win the Republican nomination (which is already in the bag) in favor of a more moderate stance--which might have been his true, original stance until he realized that no moderate politician can win the GOP nomination in this day and age--that might give him more of the independent vote in the upcoming election. Moreover, Romney's moderate stances (whether in the past or forthcoming) seem to appeal to a great mass of moderate Democrats who possibly were unhappy with Obama's performance in his first four years in office.
I'd say until both candidates--Romney especially--mark their true policy positions, polls will only reflect a voter opinion that is subject to radical change in the next couple of months.
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