Tax cuts that President Trump campaigned upon and achieved in the end of 2017 may accelerate the demographic problems that threaten the Republican Party in its current form. If businesses and workers flock to Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina due to cheaper real estate and lower taxes, Republicans may lose control of these states sooner than expected. The reason for this is younger voters are increasingly abandoning the Republican Party and they are the ones most likely to follow job creation in these Sun Belt states where Democrats have already been making gains.
Discussion Questions
1. Although the events of the next nine months will likely have a major impact, do you see the Democratic wave that began in Nov 2017 carrying through to the midterm election this November?
2. Will Republicans be able to counter potential Democratic gains in Sun Belt states by further gains of their own in Midwest states?
3. What will be the impact of Trump? Will he be able to attract independent voters by pointing to the nation's strong economy or will Republican pay an electoral price for his divisiveness and extreme rhetoric?
1 comment:
This is an interesting concept that I have never given very much thought before. Because of the electoral college, it is important to have party members spread out across the United States, and not just concentrated in a certain location because in order to win the presidency, a candidate must win electoral votes based on states, not overall population. If more democrats move to the Sun Belt states from areas with a high concentration of democrats, it would be very beneficial for the democratic party. I don’t think the amount of people moving to these states alone will be enough for the democrats to win these traditionally republican states, but I do think we will see the country swing back to the left with the midterm election just because in the past few elections it seems like when one party is upset they lose an election, they have more incentive to vote, while the winning party has less motivation. Perhaps if the trend of democrats moving to the Sun Belt states continues and the youth grow up and register to vote we can expect the states to have a better chance to swing democrat more consistently.
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