Skepticism Arises Regarding Alleged Iran Plot

There are quite a few issues brought up today that causes skepticism about the Iran conspiracy plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US and bombings.

Ambassador Adel Jubeir

First, there is no clear, reasonable rationale. Iran is a country on their way to the brink. Countless economic sanctions and other isolation measures have been pushing Iran to the sidelines of the international arena. It's unlikely that they are going to risk further damage on their economy and international status by planning a sloppy assassination plot against Adel Jubeir on US soil, angering both the US and Saudi Arabia - obviously two very influential countries.

Second, there is no precedent and this plot is very inconsistent with known previous Iranian procedures. Iran has never been linked to an assassination plot or attack against anyone on US soil. Sure they have been accused of attack plots, but they have never been publicly found guilty of any sort of conspiracy on US soil (most likely because they are probably always extra covert and the people will undoubtedly go through tremendous lengths to cover up their tracks). With that said, I think it's very unlikely that they hired an average Iranian-American and administered only one proxy (the Mexican drug cartel) - a non-Muslim one at that - for such an amateurishly-schemed plot.

Attorney General Holder

Third, Saudi is not Iran's number one enemy. Iran has many more intense conflicts with its neighboring Afghanistan, Iraq and also Bahrain. There isn't a real incentive here. It's true that Iran has ongoing tension with Saudi Arabia. However, an assassination of a Saudi official will only nudge other countries to support Saudi and condemn Iran. I doubt they would really make a decision as stupid as this.

Fourth, the alleged plot is inconstant and has too many loose ends. Nobody is certain on the allegations. Even Attorney General Eric Holder commented that the US government cannot yet firmly accuse the Iranian government of any knowledge on this alleged plot due to a lack of evidence. [Source] Moreover, others have commented that this situation seems like a decoy and distraction away from AG Holder's role and involvement in the notorious "Operation Fast and Furious".

Why would Iran risk so much in a plot that has a slim chance of success? Smells fishy...

The bottom line: is this a real threat or, according to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, just a distraction our government threw our way?