Newt Gingrich and the 2012 election

The link for this post is a pretty interesting post by FiveThirtyEight.com, one of the blogs that Mr. Silton reccommended at the beginning of the year. Most of their posts are polls and data, but this one focuses on Newt Gingrich, a possible GOP nomination for the 2012 election.

You may recognize Gingrich from the video we watched in class (I'm forgetting the name...but it was about him and Clinton) He's the former Speaker of the House and a real name in conservative politics.

When I first read the article about CPAC that I posted earlier this week, I saw Gingrich's name and thought he would be a front runner in the "straw poll" (mentioned by Sarah). However, as skewed as the results may be (by Tea Party activists or the lack of people that actually voted), Gingrich did pretty poorly.

Something interesting about Five Thirty Eight's post was how they counted Gingrich's professionalism as a weakness. Tom Schaller (author of the post) writes of Gingrich's speech at CPAC, "In little more than a half hour, Gingrich managed to reference the Judiciary Act of 1802, Camus’ The Plague, Orwell’s 1984, Hayek’s notions of centralized planning, and John Paul II. I was waiting for him to announced that copies of the speech's footnotes would be available in the lobby." Gingrich is obviously well educated, and it always suprises me how badly Americans react to this. How is that we go for the good ol' boy rather than the scholar? I mean, George W. Bush, really?

Regardless, I agree with the blog that Gingrich could present a challenge to Obama. And he certainly has the experience and track record to rival all the other potential nominees.

Ron Paul victor of CPAC presidential straw poll?

On Saturday, Ron Paul won the annual Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll with 31 percent of the vote. The closest runner up, Gov. Mitt Romney, garnered a mere 22 percent of the vote. Paul's victory came as a surprise to many; in fact, when he was announced as the winner, the crowd responded with boos. Some contribute Ron Paul's victory to the large amount of Tea Party activists in attendance. With many at the conference citing "reducing the size of federal government" as a top concern, I personally think that Paul's victory is not that surprising. As Katie mentioned earlier, many at CPAC were much younger than the typical attendees. "54 percent of participants were between the ages of 18 and 25," so the straw poll was probably reflective of the younger voting pool.

While the straw poll is often used as a way to scout out future presidential nominees, the article said that "the announcement of Paul's win [is] a surprise victory unlikely to have a major impact on the 2012 presidential contest." I have to agree. I feel that the nature of the straw poll is not very reliable. Only 2,400 people voted out of the 10,000 people in attendance. Many expressed dissatisfaction with the candidates. I think that the large amount of non-response is not insignificant. The results are not reflective of the sentiments of the Republican party as a whole. However, I think it is important to note that many are discontent with the traditional Republican party. The "tea party" activists are making their voices heard, which could be significant in the next election.

Conservatives rally together at CPAC in preparation for midterms

Today was the first day of the annual CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference). It's main drive was support for the upcoming November midterm, where Republicans hope to take back many seats in Congress, and make it clear that they are determined to make Obama a one-term president. The conference featured prominent members of the Republican party, lame jokes about Obama, and reminders to stay, well, conservative.

The Republicans are on the upswing now as Obama's approval has been rating dropping, several veteran congressional Democrats have announced they will retire at the end of the year and Brown took a historically liberal seat in Massachusetts. They are certainly embracing their new "underdog" status as it seems to have ignited a fiery opposition and fervor to end up on top. But many of their speeches contained relatively no new information, just reiterations of their classic platform: lowering taxes, no mercy towards terrorism, and small business interests.

However, I think something interesting to note was that of the 10,000 attendees somewhere from 60-80 percent were under 30. I think this should definitely be a wake up call for Democrats. Perhaps the conference was purposefully skewed (likely) in order to seem appealing to younger voters, but the Democrats should definitely fight for the younger crowd. The sign that younger voters might be heading towards the right is rather surprising, but then again, I'm not sure if this conference is very accurate.

Another point of interest was the Republican's response to the Tea Party movement, or the "grassroots" conservatism that sprung out of certain policy issues and gridlock in Washington last year. The party does not associate itself with the Republican party, but followers overwhelmingly vote right. House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, warned against aligning their party with the Tea Party. "The Republican Party should not attempt to co-opt the tea parties," Boehner said. "I think that's the dumbest thing in the world. What we will do, as long as I'm the leader, is respect them, listen to them, and walk amongst them. The other party will never, ever do that." However, Marco Rubio, a challenger for the Florida Senate seat, encouraged Republicans to "embrace" the Tea Party.

On a side note,

"The CPAC conference wraps up Saturday with the much-anticipated straw poll, seen as an indicator of the top GOP contenders for the 2012 presidential election.

The choices on the ballot this year are Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Pence, Romney, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, and a slot for "Other.""

So what do you think? Are Republicans really on the rise, or just trying to pump up their supporters? Should the Democrats be scared of the under-30 percentage? Should the GOP embrace the Tea Party? What do you think of the top GOP contenders?