The first primary of the 2020 Election is happening this Tuesday in New Hampshire. This comes just after a confusing and messy Iowa Caucus and Friday's Democratic Debate. The results in Iowa were close and hard to predict (as there was no preceding Iowa poll, like most years had). But, in New Hampshire, a relative consensus has been reached on who will take the most delegates.
According to five polls, Senator Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire, but not by a large margin. I believe this is a result of a few factors. The first being an obvious elements of any campaign, policy lots of people can get behind. The second is how his particular campaign is run (mobilizing younger voters and campaign contributions from average people). The third factor, specific to this primary, is that his state of Vermont, which he has held as a senator since 2007, is right next to New Hampshire.
And while Mayor Pete has performed better than expected, winning Iowa by a small margin, and Vice President Biden and Senator Warren have performed worse than expected, this is set to change on the national scale (as Iowa and New Hampshire have a higher proportion of white voters than the US does).
In the debate and throughout their campaigns in New Hampshire and the nation, candidates have been discussing civil liberties and civil rights issues and policy, such as gun control (Second Amendment), abortion (privacy), and civil rights and race as a whole. They will continue to do this until someone becomes President and then makes––or influences––policy on these topics.
1. Who do you think will win New Hampshire? Who will win the nomination?
2. What do you attribute to Mayor Pete's strong, early performance?
3. What are some civil liberties and civil rights policy you think Democrats will/should roll out if they take the presidency?
3 comments:
An article I read attributed Mayor Pete's good start to excellent media coverage, but I also think it may have been partly due to how he stands out from the other candidates, especially in age. His recent surge in the latest polling trends could be stemming from his focus on building his presence in Iowa, where he's established a large number of his staff and offices. He does have little to no support among African American voters, however, so I do think that Bernie or the other candidates may have a better chance of winning the NH primary.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/21/20974228/pete-buttigieg-surge-explained-2020
To add onto that, another reason the reason the mayor is performing so well can be attributed to the numerous billionaires flocking to donate to his campaign (around 40 at this point in the election). There is no question about the power money has in an election (which is why things like Citizens United are so important). More money plays to anyone who has it's benefit. Enough money can literally buy voter support (not something we want going on in America)--think Bloomberg's tactics. But, in this particular situation, there is a cost to those donations. I think, in the coming primaries, Americans will realize that someone who takes mass amounts of money from billionaires, cannot be impartial to them if put in office. So extremely rich people, like Jeff Bezos, can continue to not pay taxes because they have the President on their side, which is why they like him so much.
I think New Hampshire is going to end up similar to Iowa because the population distribution in Iowa and New Hampshire is quite similar. This may propel Mayor Pete even further in the election but as other states with more racial minorities begin voting, we will probably see Biden start to do better. As Daniella said, Mayor Pete's media coverage is a great attribution to his success especially at the beginning but I think all of this will change as we enter into March.
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