Currently in the Presidential race, the county delegate count stands with Sanders at 46%, Biden at 20%, Buttigieg at 15%, Warren at 10%, Klobuchar at 5%, and Steyer at 4%. Furthermore, the world’s political attention now rests at the next candidate debate on February 25 and the next contest in South Carolina on February 29. Although it may seem Sanders is a clear winner for the democratic party by far (yay), Biden still survives. According to entrance polls, Biden won 36% of African Americans while Sanders only won 27% of their vote. Additionally, Biden won voters of 65 and older, the only age group that Sanders lost.
The next step for Biden’s candidacy is South Carolina. Biden has never trailed in any poll in South Carolina and whose majority-black primary electorate will most likely support him. However, Sanders has growing support from African Americans in South Carolina as well. It’s important to note that if Biden does win South Carolina, he will go into Super Tuesday with some delegate votes that will help him in the long run. Biden’s currently projected to win two delegates from the caucuses.
Nevertheless, there is a huge gap of ideals between older African Americans and younger African Americans, South Carolina state Rep. Kambrell Garvin, a Warren surrogate, says “Younger African Americans like Joe Biden, but a lot of us aren’t supportive of Joe Biden, because we want a change in policies. We aren’t looking to tinker around the edges.” I think Sanders should be clear about his intentions with policy changes and how they will affect African Americans.
Lasty, 33% of the total delegates (1,344) will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday alone. This means that every candidate is fighting to get a bigger lead to be one step ahead of every candidate before March 17, where almost 61% of the delegate votes will be allotted.
- Who do you think will win South Carolina? By how much?
- What impact do you think whoever “wins” Super Tuesday will have on the candidates?
- Who do you believe will have most of the delegate votes by March 17th?
2 comments:
It seems either Biden or Bernie will win South Carolina, but it's hard to predict which of those two will prevail. According to the Intelligencer article (Article 1), Biden's basically out of the race if he loses South Carolina. It's good to see primaries and caucuses still serve a "weeding out" function. I predict that in the aftermath of Super Tuesday, more candidates will drop out, particularly the candidates whose campaigns are running out of money, like Klobuchar. Just for fun, I'll say Bernie will end up in the lead after March 17.
While Bernie Sanders has a relatively diverse base, I think that Joe Biden does have a shot at winning South Carolina. According to the Vox article, African American voters make up about 60% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina. In Nevada, Biden hadthe most African American votes at around 39%, meaning that he does have a good chance of winning the African American vote in South Carolina. However, Bernie’s strong results in previous states indicate that the win in South Carolina is between him and Biden. The results of Super Tuesday will indicate the frontrunner of the race and will likely be indicative of who wins the Democratic nomination. I think that many candidates will end up dropping out of the race after Super Tuesday, as those who don’t do well will have a very little chance of winning the nomination.
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