Sunday, November 17, 2024

Kamala Harris's Campaign Financing: From 1 Billion Dollars to 1 Billion Questions

 


    Over the course of the past few months, Kamala Harris has raised over 1 billion dollars towards her Presidential Campaign. Her primary financial ally, Future Forward, raised an additional 900 million dollars, much more money than an outside group has ever contributed to a campaign. The large quantity of donations brought in by her campaign contrasted with her loss of the election is leaving Americans wondering how efficient her spending campaign actually was.

The campaign spent the majority of the money it raised, around 680 million dollars,  on its media campaign — amassing a wide range of television ads and social media marketing. The campaign also needed to pay off the large number of people working for it: about 45 million dollars was spent paying campaign and event staff. Additionally, more than 50 million dollars were put towards travel costs for Harris’s extensive rally schedule, and polling for the campaign cost more than 12 million dollars from July to October. In total, the campaign averaged a spending value of about 100 million dollars per week.

Harris’s extravagant performances constituted a large cost in her budget as well. With drone shows, celebrity concerts at rallies and on election-eve, and a payment to Oprah’s production firm to stage a live-stream in Detroit, Democrats have started to wonder whether these expenses actually had a positive impact on Harris’s campaign, especially considering that Donald Trump won the election with raising and spending only a third of the amount.


As we discussed in class this past week, many interest groups strive to gain candidate support by donating money, benefitting the groups by pushing their endorsed politicians into office and giving them more leverage through new connections. With all of the money donated to the Harris campaign, many groups and individuals are disappointed at their lack of representation seen in the government now that she has lost, as well as frustrated from not being able to receive any desired legislature or support in return for their donations. In fact, Trump’s policies oppose those of many of these interest groups, so their contributions may be seen as entirely futile.

However, executives close to Harris have stated that the high level of campaign spending and the contributions of all of her donors did in fact have an impact on the election. Bakari Sellers emphasized that “There is not a single expenditure in a different spot that would have changed the outcome of the race,” while Future Forward leaders argue that Trump’s performance in battleground states that the Harris campaign invested in was not wildly better than in the 2020 election.

After the election, the Harris campaign is up to quite the peculiar shenanigans. Unsurprisingly, the campaign has had to lay off hundreds of workers, cutting payroll by about 70 percent. However, the campaign is still asking for money — while not exposing the intention as to cover debts, Democrats are increasingly suspicious that the campaign is trying to make back money lost its spending spree over the past few months. Adrian Hemond, a Democratic strategist, says, “The Harris campaign certainly spent more than they raised and is now busy trying to fundraise.” The Harris Campaign has held a fair amount of secrecy regarding its current financial situation. However, Patrick Stauffer, the CFO for Harris’s Presidential Campaign, mentioned that on election day the campaign didn’t have any overdue debts, and there “will be no debt” when the Harris Campaign’s and DNC’s financial information is shared in December. 

Nonetheless, daily emails from the campaign and Democratic Party are sent to possible donors each day, aiming at previous contributors who gave hundreds of dollars or less. These emails appeal to donations for the “Harris Fight Fund” (formerly the “Harris Victory Fund”), supporting potential recounts for Democrats in tight congressional races. These emails are also rousing fear, warning recipients of Trump’s agenda and potential threats to Democracy. As the campaign rebuilds from “the most expensive loss on record,” the Democratic party sets to continue its fundraising efforts in preparation for the 2026 midterm elections.


https://apnews.com/article/harris-postelection-fundraising-dnc-gaetz-trump-donors-806eeb3b92eced3242aeb29a964ca259 

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c3e80x71x0ko

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-fundraising-campaign-appeals/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/harris-campaign-finances.html?login=email&auth=login-email

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/us/politics/harris-future-forward.html?login=email&auth=login-email

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/kamala-harris/clashes-confusion-secrecy-consume-harris-campaign-finances-rcna179654



Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services

Trump taps RFK Jr. to lead Department of Health and Human Services | Fox  News

On Thursday, Donald Trump announced that he would nominate RFK Jr. to lead the United States Department of Health and Human Services during his presidency, adding to his list of controversial cabinet picks. Robert F. Kennedy Junior., part of the long politically involved Kennedy family, had a traumatic upbringing. His uncle, John F. Kennedy, was assassinated when RFK Jr. was nine, and when he was fourteen, his father, Ronald F. Kennedy, was also assassinated. To cope with this, RFK Jr. turned to drugs, eventually being convicted and pleading guilty to possession of heroin. 


This year, RFK attempted to run for president in the Republican party, before abandoning his campaign to endorse Trump. Despite Kennedy’s upbringing, the policies he seeks to implement are not in the best interests of U.S. citizens. The motion of Kennedy leading a part of government has led to much debate and skepticism from public health officials, as Kennedy has repeatedly expressed his anti-vaccination beliefs to the public despite scientific evidence, along with conspiracy theories, (including, but not limited to, how Wi-Fi causes cancer and school shootings are derivable from antidepressants).


RFK Jr. has willingly embraced his new role. He has already started sharing his plans to overhaul American public health, specifically blaming corruption in the health and food industries for America’s poor health. Kennedy told MSNBC that he wanted to see “entire departments” in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), especially nutrition specialists in the department, released. The FDA is responsible for public health, ensuring the safety of drugs, medical devices, and the nation’s food supply. In the case that many of the department’s nutritionists are let go, America could see much more instability in diseases such as diabetes and obesity, and regulations for healthy eating. In addition to his threats to the FDA, Kennedy is also attempting to go against vaccines, famously known for spreading the debunked fact that vaccines can cause autism. Vaccine requirements are decided at the state level for children, but the federal government can mandate which vaccines are given, so some lawmakers are concerned about Kennedy's supposed role in the system. Kennedy would likely attempt to decrease the amount of vaccines that are available to the public, which could snowball into a more serious health crisis than the US currently has.


A more specific controversy that Kennedy has caused is his campaign to remove fluoride from our water. Fluoride, one of the main ingredients used in toothpaste, is also used in the water supply. As a result, tooth decay has been reduced by around 25%, saving billions of dollars in dental expenses for patients. This has been considered one of the best public health achievements of the 20th century and proved to be beneficial to medical professionals around the US. 

RFK Jr.'s Vow to Take On Big Food Could Face Resistance - The New York Times


Overall, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s plans for the future of health in the United States should be a cause of great concern to everyone living in America. His main sources of information come from falsified sources and conspiracy theorists, and there should be more experienced candidates who would be more beneficial to the future of the United States as a whole.


Food and Drug Administration (FDA).


How RFK Jr. could cause an earthquake for American public health


Trump picks RFK Jr. to oversee the Department of Health and Human Services


No more fluoride in the water? RFK Jr. wants that and Trump says it 'sounds OK'


Trump Picks R.F.K. Jr. to Be Head of Health and Human Services Dept.


Harmful Texts Spread Across the Nation: Is the Election to Blame?

 Last week it was black college students, now it’s expanded to a larger audience. A series of harmful text messages have been sent to minorities nationwide.

November 6th not only marked former President Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, it marked the start of a racist text campaign. Dozens of Black American students from Clemson University, the University of Alabama, Ohio State, and more universities across the nation have reportedly received racist messages following the election. While the wording differs slightly, they all uncoincidentally followed the same parameters: stating the student had been “selected” to pick cotton at “the nearest plantation.” As if weaponizing America’s dark history of slavery wasn’t fear evoking enough, each student was addressed by name, making the attacks all that more personal. 

This week, the number of victims have only increased. Now there have been reports of Latinos, LGBTQIA+ members, and high-schoolers receiving similar dehumanizing messages. Latinos received messages claiming they were selected for deportation, and for LGBTQIA+ individuals, their messages stated they are required to report to a re-education camp.

Some of these texts were sent through TextNow, a messaging service. The company has now informed the public they have since disabled the accounts believed to be connected to the texts and announced their further cooperating with law enforcement. Additionally,  the FBI has released a statement: “Although we have not received reports of violent acts stemming from these offensive messages, we are evaluating all reported incidents and engaging with the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division. We are also sharing information with our law enforcement partners and community, academia, and faith leaders.” 

Is it a coincidence these messages appear directly following the election outcomes? Many think not. Some claimed these messages have come from “a Trump supporter," but that has yet to be verified. Regardless, the intensified emotions following the election is likely the cause of this hate crime. “Alarming increase in vile and abhorrent rhetoric from racist groups across the country, who now feel emboldened to spread hate and stoke the flames of fear that many of us are feeling after Tuesday’s election results,” says NAACP President Derrick Johnson. Seeing that many critics of Trump argue he ignores the issue of systemic racism, many are fearful that these messages are a glimpse of the hardships minorities will face in these coming four years. 

Whether or not Donald Trump influenced the situation, some blame him for a political culture in which this kind of hate is normalized. Many, as expressed by Johnson, believe that in light of Trump’s win, some individuals may feel empowered to express such hate.  This reflects the growing concerns among many minority groups that such hate will be embedded into political socialization, increasing similar behavior. Regardless of the suspected motives behind these messages, it is troubling that an election could serve as a catalyst of hate. Yet, also a reminder of the unity and equality our country must aim to uphold. 


For more information:

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-statement-regarding-offensive-text-messages 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/offensive-racist-texts-now-sent-high-schoolers-latinos-lgbtq-community-rcna180415 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/text-service-shut-accounts-allegedly-racist-texts/story?id=115619141 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/11/15/hispanic-lgbt-offensive-texts-fbi/76341947007/


Biden Meets With American Hostage Families: What Comes Next with a Trump Administration?

    Earlier this week, President Joe Biden met with the families of Americans being held captive by Hamas. During this emotional

meeting, President Biden offered support and discussed his continued efforts to secure the safe return of every hostage.

Currently, 4 out of the 7 American hostages are believed to be alive and 3 have died in Gaza. 

    The Biden-Harris Administration has been trying for months to get a ceasefire and hostage deal in the Israel-Hamas war.

During Wednesday's White House Briefing, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that Biden will keep working

tirelessly to bring the hostages home for the rest of his time in office. In light of the recent election, Sullivan went on to say,

"Yes, of course we're prepared to work with the incoming team in common cause, on a bipartisan basis, to do everything in our

collective American power to secure the release of the hostages, both living and deceased." 

    As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, some of the hostage families are looking to his reputation as a "dealmaker" to see if he can accomplish what the Biden administration has yet to. Ruby Chen, whose 19-year-old son was tragically murdered by Hamas on October 7, 2023, expressed hope that Trump’s “America First” stance might lead to tangible results. Chen said, “[Trump] cares about the topic of American hostages, and now it’s time to see his recommitment to the topic, and have American hostages come out before January 20.” However, Chen and other hostage families have not yet met with Trump or Senator JD Vance, despite their repeated visits to Washington, D.C., advocating for their loved ones.

    In a recent PBS interview, Nick Schifrin spoke with Dalia Cusnir, a relative of a hostage, who expressed cautious optimism that the transition in U.S. leadership could spark progress. Cusnir noted that Trump has said that any hope for a ceasefire and an end to the conflict must begin with the release of hostages. Still, she acknowledged that both the Biden and Trump administrations must work together to bring about a resolution quickly. She emphasized, “For us, the family of hostages, of course, first, we need to see our loved ones, but we also want to bring a time of healing for the Palestinians in Gaza. They are also being held by Hamas.”

    As the U.S. transitions to a new administration, the question remains: Can both political parties unite to secure the release of hostages and bring an end to this crisis? While the situation is complex and fraught with political and diplomatic challenges, one thing is clear— the lives of these hostages should remain a top priority for any administration, and the families are hoping for results, no matter the political landscape.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-meeting-with-families-of-american-hostages-held-by-hamas/?intcid=CNR-02-0623

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/12/politics/hostage-families-israel-hamas-trump/index.html

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/change-might-bring-something-good-family-of-gaza-hostages-says-amid-political-shakeups

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/11/13/readout-of-president-bidens-meeting-with-families-of-americans-taken-hostage-by-hamas/


Friday, November 15, 2024

Donald Trump's New Cabinet

Every President, when entering office, is required to select a cabinet, 15 government department heads that serve as the President’s closest confidants. These positions include the Secretaries of State and Defense, which like all cabinet appointments have to be approved by the Senate (passing requires a majority vote) in order to be officially confirmed for the position. This process includes background checks of the candidates and several hearings and questionnaires. It was put in place by the Founding Fathers to check the president’s power and prevent them from promoting their own cronies to high-level positions to serve their own interests. Other positions that hold similar levels of power as cabinet members, but don’t have to be confirmed by the Senate, include the Chief of Staff and the White House Counsel. 


Less than 24 hours after winning the election, President-Elect Donald Trump began announcing the people that will accompany him to the White House, starting with his Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.


Chief of Staff - Susie Wiles

After graduating from the University of Maryland, Wiles worked for Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign (1980), and then turned to work in Florida politics. As a political consultant, she helped Sen. Rick Scott and Governor Ron DeSantis win their elections. Aftwards, working on and off with the Trump campaign from 2016 to 2020, Susie Wiles became the co-chair for Trump’s 2024 election campaign. Describing her as “tough, smart, [and] innovative,” Trump credited Wiles with helping him win both the 2016 and 2024 elections. Notably, she will also be the first female Chief of Staff.


Attorney General - Matt Gaetz

One of the most controversial picks for his cabinet so far, Trump chose former Representative Matt Gaetz as his Attorney General. The job, which serves as a counselor to state government agencies and legislatures, is also responsible for representing the United States in court and overseeing federal criminal prosecutions. Ironically, Matt Gaetz has been investigated by both the FBI and the Congressional Committee of Ethics for sexual misconduct (trafficking a minor across state lines), illicit drug use, using campaign funds for personal use, and accepting a bribe. He has not been charged for any of these crimes. In choosing Gaetz, Trump is ignoring concerns about the Congressman’s ability to be confirmed by the Senate due to his history. Unfortunately, as Gaetz resigned from Congress on Wednesday, Nov 14, it might prevent the Ethics Committee from releasing the report of their investigation, although the Senate could request it as part of their standard background check.


Secretary of State - Marco Rubio

A rival of Trump in the 2016 election, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is slated to become the first Latino to be the Secretary of State. Currently, he serves as the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and has extensive foreign policy experience. Some of his views on current foreign policy include support for Israel’s war in Gaza, a desire to treat Iran as a more dangerous adversary, and considers China the “the largest, most advanced adversary America has ever faced.”


Defense Secretary - Pete Hegseth

Deviating from his usual pick of politicians, Trump chose Hegseth, a Fox News host to lead the Department of Defense. A co-host of "Fox & Friends Weekends”, Hegseth is an army veteran who served in the National Guard and toured Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay, reaching the rank of Major in the National Guard and earning several medals. While lengthy, his 19 year experience pales in comparison with the current Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who served in the Army for 41 years, served as the Commanding General of United States Forces, overseeing all operations in Iraq and reached the rank of a 4 star general. Hegseth is also the author of "The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free," which rails against what he calls the "warped, woke, and caustic policies of our current military." Another role required to be confirmed by the Senate, Hegseth is sure to be under pressure in the weeks to come. In addition to being probed about his lack of managerial experience, he will be asked about his white supremacist tattoos.


Health and Human Services Secretary - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

President-Elect Trump picked Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, saying that he will take on "industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation." Kennedy ran as an independent in the 2024 presidential election, but dropped out in August and endorsed Trump. As the HHS oversees major health agencies such as the CDC, the FDA and the Centers for Medicare, he will have the opportunity to promote his own version of public health, at contrast with mainstream health and science. Kennedy also believes that large drug and food companies are to blame for an epidemic of chronic diseases prevalent in the United States. A telling sign of his potential impact, major pharmaceuticals such as Roche and Pfizer saw their stock prices drop over 10% since Trump won the presidency, and since Kennedy was announced on Thursday, by another 2% - 4%.


Department Of Government Efficiency - Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy

Musk, CEO of Twitter, SpaceX, and Tesla, and Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and former Republican primary candidate, have been chosen by Trump to jointly head the brand new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The department will not be a federal agency, but will provide guidance to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” as Trump said in a statement. This follows his, and the general GOP party’s policy of reducing government size to promote free markets. While their department will only exist for 1 and a half years, they will wield a large amount of power, influencing which departments receive funding and which are downsized. 


While these are only a small portion of his new cabinet, Trump is set to revolutionize who and how they run the government. Indeed, he is already trying to pass his cabinet members through Congress without a vote, but explaining the intricacies of that will require another full blog.


After Mike Pence’s ‘betrayal’ of Trump during the January 6th insurrection, he has looked for one quality above all in his selection for cabinet posts: loyalty. With a new government, and a Republican held Senate and House, it is impossible to predict what Trump will do once he gets into office but one thing is for sure, it will be interesting.


You can see the full list of Trump’s cabinet picks here.


https://www.npr.org/2024/11/12/g-s1-33773/trump-cabinet-advisers-administration

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tracking-trump-named-serve-cabinet-administration/story?id=115777302

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-might-be-in-donald-trump-cabinet/

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/14/politics/trump-controversial-cabinet-picks/index.html

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/nx-s1-5186739/how-the-senate-confirmation-process-works-and-how-trump-wants-to-change-it

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-susie-wiles-chief-of-staff/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/13/trump-marco-rubio-secretary-state-foreign-policy/

 

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Trump Rewards Elon Musk for Support During Election

 Today President Elect Trump has appointed Elon Musk to head the new department of government efficiency. While this isn't an actual government department it will act similar to the President's cabinet as an advisory board to the national government run by entrepreneurs. This department gives Elon Musk the a formal advisory position in which he can influence the government. Currently, he has said his main goals in the position are to advise on government spending and to prevent any unnecessary waste.

Elon Musk donated an estimated 200$ million to have Trump elected and publicly advocated for him throughout his campaign, and it has paid off. Unfortunately, it isn't an unprecedented thing in American Government to reward loyal followers, and Trump has already rewarded many MAGA supporters with other positions. The thing surprising about this is that Elon Musk has never held any sort of government position before, and Trump hopes that this will redefine the relationship between large corporation and the government in the future.

However, at the core, this is simply the President Elect rewarding the supporting interest groups. Elon Musk donated so much that he himself can be considered his own interest group, however his policy preferences reflect those of most of the top .01%: Lower taxes and decrease government influence. Elon Musk's support is a very public example of electioneering done by interest groups, in which they donate money and rally there supporters to vote for a specific candidate. In this case, Elon Musk got a large amount of his fans to vote for Trump through his open endorsement.

Already this decision has been heavily criticized by progressive sources as not only does Elon Musk not have any experience with government, but he stands to profit immensely off of this position. Already Tesla Stock, Elon's biggest company, has skyrocketed up to double the value of only a few months ago, and nearly 25% since election night, meaning Elon Musk has made back his money and more already. In the future, his company stands to have an even higher evaluation, though fortunately the current $328.64 evaluation per stock fell 6% today, a potential sign of stock inflation past it's actual value. Overall, this nomination of Elon Musk to a position of power in Trump's Government means that most likely in the next 4 years, there will be many policies benefitting the very wealthy and top corporations, ranging from tax cuts to anti-union laws.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/12/trump-appoints-elon-musk-government-efficiency-department

https://fortune.com/2024/11/09/timothy-mellon-net-worth-top-donor-trump-campaign-elon-musk/

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/top-analyst-lays-out-bold-bull-case-for-tesla-stock-price-target

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/us/politics/elon-musk-vivek-ramaswamy-trump.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20241113&instance_id=139477&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=258126758&segment_id=183023&user_id=848b4557f1bab17904d676eb38a7414a

Polls increased in accuracy yet still underestimated Trump


Now that practically every single presidential vote has been counted, Donald Trump has swept every single swing state, a feat that appeared outright insane just a week and a half ago. Ann Selzer, a pollster known for her reliability particularly in Iowa, even predicted a three-point lead for Harris in due to outrage over abortion rights, a prediction that fell flat as Donald Trump and Republican candidates mounted an unprecedented, swallowing red wave after Democratic gains in elections and midterm elections since 2018. Most other major polling platforms set Harris and Trump in a dead tie, but suggested that Harris had the potential to eke out victories where it mattered: namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and the Blue Wall that soon turned into Blue Wall or Bust… and then bust.


Similarly, a Times/Siena poll found Kamala Harris had a lead over Donald Trump and saw her as the candidate of change, which also turned out to be sharply inaccurate as a micro survey conducted by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked her audience why they chose to engage in “split ticket” voting (both voting for her and Donald Trump), and while this is not close to a reliable survey that speaks for all Americans, the overwhelming message was change. Change from the establishment, and casting aside the policymakers that voters felt had ingrained themselves in elite institutions, no matter how inaccurate, even as many cite President Biden as the most pro-union president in the last century.


Hindsight is 20/20, and it is difficult to offer political conjecture without posting self-righteously about “hindsight-obvious” mistakes. However, there is clearly something amiss with the polling. It is not that polling is biased towards Democrats, that would be absurd, but Pew Research Center's vice president of methods and innovation Courtney Kennedy suggests that Democrats participate in surveys more than Republicans.


Our studies and materials in class also demonstrated the occasional unreliability of public opinion and public polling. The type of people participating in surveys, combined with the types of questions asked and even the phrasing of an individual question affects results. Using charged language inherently alters the results to a visible margin. Polling is also simply inaccurate because the real poll is Election Day, and there’s not much to be done to change that without devolving into an overly reliant manner of horse race journalism, an unhelpful method of journalism.



Given the current events, it would not be a ridiculous assertion to suggest that the modern polling strategy as we know it is deeply flawed, underestimating Trump in both 2016 and 2024. The poll was supposedly “fixed” to accommodate for Trump’s win in 2016, then re-optimized for Democrat success in midterms and so on, yet despite a ton of money and time being put into polling, the results of being neck-and-neck are incorrect.

However, numbers are always deceptive and manipulated. Conservatives took to social platforms claiming that Trump had beat Harris by 20 million votes (implying that 20 million votes Biden had in 2020 were in fact, rigged and fraud) but the final vote counts tally Harris at 72 million votes while Trump is at 75 million votes, and California, our hallmark massive blue state, is only three-fourths of the way to a complete report.




But it would also be plain wrong to state that polling was inaccurate. Polling has drastically improved compared to previous years. For example, according to ABC, pollsters moved away from random digit dialing, or RDD, which tended to affect polls unpredictably and cause oscillation. The exception to this was the Iowa Selzer poll which continued to use RDD, and Trump ended up winning Iowa by 13 points, constituting a 16 point error. However, polls underestimate Trump less than they did in 2016 and 2020, although there is still, to a degree, a left-leaning bias—again, not because of any secret conspiracy, but simply due to the nature of the polling mechanisms involved.



So the election is close. Like also discussed in class, the Electoral College has the potential to exacerbate results and leaves the decision down to a few swing states. It is true that Trump swept every single swing state, but the polling margin of error was lower than in previous years, but this margin of error was all Trump needed to pull a few million votes ahead of Harris and win a decisive Electoral College victory. There is inherent uncertainty in polling, even as polling techniques and mechanisms continue to improve.


US pollsters taking heat – again – for failing to predict Trump triumph | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

These Maps are Lying (if you let them)

Polls predicted a close race. Trump won handily. Pollster says one thing is 'very clear.'

2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump - ABC News

Monday, November 11, 2024

Gov. Newsom Goes on the Offensive: “Trump-Proofing” California

Following Donald Trump’s win of the presidential election, Governor Gavin Newsom called the California Legislature for a special session last Thursday. Newsom, a prominent member of the Democratic party, aims to reinforce the state’s legal protections and safeguard programs that protect the freedom and safety of Californians. The state, overall very progressive in its existing policies, will be subject to the brunt of the laws and restrictions Trump wants to put in place, including on abortion rights, environmental laws, and undocumented immigrants. 


President-elect Trump was outraged by the stand that Newsom is taking, using degrading nicknames and harsh rhetoric in response. “Governor Gavin Newscum is trying to KILL our Nation’s beautiful California,” he claimed on Friday, in response to Newsom’s announcement of his plan to “Trump-Proof” the state. Reaffirming his vow to deport the large number of undocumented people living in California, Trump seems ultimately unworried by Newsom’s plan, with many other republicans also calling the governor’s actions simply political theater. 


This has not stopped Newsom, however, as he traveled to Washington D.C. to meet with members of the California delegation as well as key players in the Biden-Harris administration. A major point of issue for Newsom is maintaining California’s disaster relief funding, a necessity with the growing amount of wildfires each summer. Trump has already threatened to cut funding to firefighters unless Newsom pulls back on the water usage restriction for farmers. Additionally, Newsom is hoping to pressure President Biden and the EPA to sign off on several bills that will help lower pollution and limit fuel emissions. Having these state level laws in place, as well as stronger legal protections in the state will hopefully help limit Trump’s effect on California’s population. 


Additionally, CA Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas acknowledges that it is not just Trump's policies that they are seeking to protect against, but also any “statements and policy papers issued by individuals close to his campaign and by Republican congressional leadership.” This is most likely referencing the controversial Project 2025, the Republican plan for reshaping the government in the coming years, published leading up to the election. Legislators plan to do everything they can to protect California’s freedoms before Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. 


This course of action for California reflects the one taken during Trump’s first victory in 2016. Our state remained a strong opponent of Trump throughout his term, filing upwards of 100 lawsuits against him and was seen as a “stronghold” of Democratic resistance that many other states looked to as an example. 


Thus, Newsom and California lawmakers, while perhaps the most vocal with their agenda, are not the only Democrats preparing for Trump's reign. Washington state leaders are dissecting the aforementioned Project 2025, hoping to be prepared for possible changes in the country as well. Governors in blue states such as New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois are taking action to protect undocumented immigrants and abortion rights, as well as have issued statements opposinging Trump, such as Gov. Hochul’s declaration
that “If [Trump] tries to harm New Yorkers or roll back their rights, I will fight [him] every step of the way.” This seems to be the sentiment of many Democratic states, vowing to protect their citizens' freedoms at the state level. Unfortunately, with a supreme court majority in his favor, Trump may end up being able to bypass these efforts and still implement many of his policies, policies that a majority of the country voted for. 

It is important to note, Newsom's key role in this democratic resistance may partially be for reasons outside of the reinforcement of California rights. Newsom himself was talked about as a possible candidate before Harris took over for Biden, and it is very likely that he will be running in the 2028 presidential election. Therefore, it is possible that these actions now are a precursor to his campaign, an early way to get voters on his side, so he can say "I protected California against Trump."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/newsom-trump-california.html 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/07/newsom-california-legislative-session-trump-resistance-00188119

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/08/trump-newsom-california-resistance-00188526 

https://calmatters.org/politics/capitol/2024/11/gavin-newsom-special-session-trump-resistance/ 

https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-gavin-newsom-special-session-32511d5887409d68d692e094ed50a272 

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-11-11/newsom-travels-to-d-c-to-lobby-for-california-wish-list-before-trump-takeover 


Sunday, November 10, 2024

Trump is the 47th President of the United States, but he’s still a convicted Felon.

     This Wednesday, after Donald Trump won in seven of the seven essential swing states, Vice President Kamala Harris called Trump to concede and congratulate him on his win. However, this election feels like déjà vu for the many who followed the election of 2016. The major difference between the election in 2016 and the election in 2024 is the number of pending criminal charges against Donald Trump.

First, it is important to understand that a presidential pardon is usually seen as a form of forgiveness by the president, not necessarily signifying guilt or innocence on the part of the pardoned. However, there are some limitations to a presidential pardon. It does not apply to impeachment cases and a president cannot pardon cases on the state or local level. 

Now that Trump has won the election, can he pardon himself? The answer is both yes, and no. Although a president has never pardoned himself before, there is some gray area on whether it is even possible. In 1974, during the Nixon Watergate scandal, Nixon’s defense debated on attempting a presidential pardon. Ultimately, Nixon was pardoned by the 38th President Gerald Ford and avoided the complicated process that might’ve followed if he had attempted to pardon himself. However, theoretically, the president could still pardon himself under the right circumstances.

As of now, Trump has been convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, and continues to be involved in case(s) related to the January 6th insurrection, the mishandling of classified documents (involving obstruction of justice), and finally the Georgia election case in which Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results. He was convicted of falsifying business records of as much as $130,000 to Stormy Daniels prior to his 2016 election in New York, making the case a state responsibility, meaning Trump could not pardon himself of the charges.  


Ultimately, the president’s ability to pardon him or herself of any federal crime (except impeachment) seems to be an abuse of power in more ways than one. For example, with the power Trump now has as President-elect, he could force the Georgia election case out of existence. As Trump's lawyer, Steve Shadow, explained under the Supremacy Clause, the trial would not take place while Trump is in office (or maybe at all). Additionally, Brian Kalt, a professor at Michigan Law School commented on Trump's case: “A pardon by definition is something you can only give to someone else… You can't grant something to yourself”". The idea of self-pardoning presidents would need to make its way through the Supreme Court to give a conclusive decision, as well as many of Trump's cases at the hands of states where he would therefore need to be pardoned by those in control of that power in that state (different states have different rules about pardoning).

    Finally, although the media is focused on pardoning now that Trump is president, there is still the possibility of Trump using his presidential powers in other ways to have the cases against him dropped. There is no doubt that those attempting to bring President Trump to justice will continue to attempt to do so, however, Trump’s presidential win just made it much more challenging.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0jr5ypqedo 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/second-trump-presidency-implication/ 

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB11194#:~:text=Although%20the%20judiciary%20had%20never,least%20while%20they%20hold%20office.