Coronavirus cases have been cut down by around 600% since the peak that occurred in January. Although the vaccinations have helped to reduce cases, doctors speculate that that is not that main reason. Dr. Ashish Jha, who is dean of the Brown University School of Public health has stated that there are multiple reasons as to why cases are down. First off they mention that, "we came off really high numbers from the holidays," and "Second, there is pretty good evidence that people are doing a better job of social distancing and mask wearing,". Lastly, he mentions that in some communities high infections rates have led to a degree of immunity in part of the population. While this immunity has slowed down the virus to a certain degree, this does not mean herd immunity, it is just a select portion of the population who have attained immunity. The record amount of COVID-19 cases here in the US occurred on January 8th, with a shocking 300,619 cases. As of February 15th, there were a total of 55,457 cases reported in the US. While this is still a very high number as to compared to the case statistics in 2020 prior to the holidays, the rapid drop in cases gives hope for the future. With the recent distribution of vaccines and preparations of vaccines for mass delivery, hopefully this pandemic could be under control before school ends. When do you speculate this pandemic will end, do you think it will go into next school year? And what do you think will bring an end to the pandemic?
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5 comments:
The mass delivery of vaccines occurring now is making me hopeful that the virus will be significantly reduced by the end of 2021. However, I don't think it will end by August, when school reopens -- I think the virus/distance-learning could easily stretch into the first semester of the next school year. I'm not ever sure there will be a true "end" to the virus. After a certain point herd immunity will start to emerge, or people become immune to Covid (either through vaccination or natural infection), and the spread slows/cases will decrease, of course, but the actual virus will not disappear completely. There will be many variants to come in the future. The status of being in a pandemic ends when the virus is no longer prevalent throughout the world or in multiple countries/regions, and I feel like the best way for this to happen is mass vaccination and the acquiring of herd immunity, or some way of gaining immunity to the virus.
I think it’s important to realize that we are probably not going to ever completely eradicate covid — it’s probably going to become like common cold, meaning we will have to get a covid shot along with our yearly flu shot. With the new strains from all over the world, many of which are more contagious and dangerous than the original, and the slow vaccine rollout, the predictions and timelines made in January are likely to be extended. Another thing to remember is that to get back to “normal,” immunity has to be everywhere. For example, according to a Bloomberg study, North Dakota will be “normal” in 4 months, but places like New York won’t be for another 10 months, so “normal” won’t really be a thing until the beginning of the 2022...in the U.S, that is. According to the same study, the world is going to take 7 years at the current vaccine rollout pace. Assuming that this rate will increase across the globe, it will more realistically be 4 years...which is still a long time. So yes, while it’s motivating to see this sharp decrease in covid cases, it’s not a sign to be more relaxed, it’s just proof that by social distancing and wearing masks, we are doing something right...it’s more like encouragement to keep doing so. Back in November of 2020, we saw a similar decrease in cases, but then, numbers shot back up as people stopped staying safe over the holiday, which was expected. According the studies, the “pandemic” will be over in the US within a year and a yearly covid shot will become a thing, but “normalcy” across the globe will take a bit longer.
It is good to see the COVID cases finally start to decrease, although it is likely that it will begin to increase again sometime soon. Even though we have a vaccine, COVID has already been known to mutate rapidly and could easily mutate to a point where the vaccine would no longer work efficiently or reliably on it. I think that we should always be prepared to wear marks constantly outside and around others as well as have periods of lockdowns in the future when COVID cases rise once again. Also, with the slow vaccine rollout, it is likely that the virus will have more time to mutate and we are also likely to see many thousands of more deaths from COVID in the next few months. I do not believe we will ever be able to go back to "how it was before" because the impact COVID has had on our society is huge and irreversible. I hope that we can help to keep ourselves and the people around us save with regularly updated vaccinations and masks as well as social distancing. Thank you for sharing!
I'm glad to see that cases are down, but I do not think we should let this number get to our head as we continue to distance and wear masks. As the vaccine is distributed to more people people are going to become more and more relaxed about the virus even though they can still carry it. If vaccines continue at the rate they are coming I can see us getting out of this early summer potentially.
It's exciting to hear something positive when it comes to the discussion of the coronavirus. While I knew that there is always going to be a select number of people immune to different viruses, its surprising to hear that this is one of the main reasons cases have dropped. It's also encouraging to know that vaccines are being widely distributed and that most adults should have theirs' in a matter of months. I wonder how low the number of cases must be for restrictions to be completely lifted? Will it have to be zero? As optimistic as I am, if that's the case, I don't believe things will go back to normal until at least the start of winter. In fact, as many have already pointed out, I think the general usage of masks and hand sanitizer is still going to be a pretty prevalent occurrence in daily life. Before COVID, many countries already wore them as precaution, and while the stakes were not quite so high, it was a way of preventing widespread illness during cold and flu season. Overall, though, (and hopefully I'm not jinxing myself with this), I believe next semester will be pretty close to feeling "normal," as most people will have already had the vaccine or gained immunity.
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