In May 2018, President Trump pulled us from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama era nuclear deal with Iran, after which Iran suffered under heavy sanctions. Biden has expressed an intent to restore the JCPOA when speaking to CFR: “If Iran moves back into compliance with its nuclear obligations, I would re enter the JCPOA as a starting point to work alongside our allies in Europe and other world powers to extend the deal’s nuclear constraints. Doing so would … re establish US credibility.” His promise to restore this nuclear deal is thought to be the reason why Iran refused to come back to the table with the Trump administration during his presidency, especially because Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif repeatedly stated that he would not negotiate another agreement after Trump pulled the US out of JCPOA. This withdrawal caused great economic strain on Iran which, under Biden’s return to JCPOA, could be improved.
About unchecked authoritarianism, Biden has promised to undo Trump’s foreign policy of turning a blind eye to autocracy and the abuse of human rights. Under Trump’s neglect, authoritarianism has increased. For example, in Saudi Arabia, Trump allowed for the rise of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who vehemently stamped out dissent and jailed scores of activists and many women’s rights defenders. Even after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the prince’s most well known critic, at the Istanbul consulate, Trump failed to raise criticism. Biden, on the anniversary of Khashoggi’s murder in October 2019, stated that: “I will defend the right of activists, political dissidents, and journalists around the world to speak their minds freely without fear of persecution and violence”, indicating a vastly different approach to a authoritarianism from Trump. In Egypt, Biden condemned Trump’s support for Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who Trump once called his “favorite dictator”. Sisi’s actions against his critics include jailing thousands of dissidents and subjecting his critics to harsh treatment while in jail.
A third aspect of Middle Eastern politics that may see great change under the Biden presidency is that of the “deal of the century”. This refers to the Trump Peace Plan for Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In September, Trump convinced the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, two Arab gulf countries, to normalize ties with Israel. However, Palestinian officials were sidelined by Trump’s unilateralism, which was also seen in his labelling of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the legitimization of Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law. Biden supported the normalization agreements and expressed an inclination to push more countries to agree to similar deals. However, he opposed Trump’s unilateralism towards Israel and Palestine. He opposes annexation, settlement expansion, and any steps taken away from a two state solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Biden also wanted to reverse Trump’s withdrawal of economic and humanitarian support for Palestine.
The Middle East expects drastic change to come from the switch in American leadership, but can only hope for improved foreign policy.
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President-elect Biden will definitely mark a new era of foreign policy, and it will be interesting to see how greatly the relationships between the U.S. and the Middle East will improve during the next four years. Under the Trump Administration, tensions have grown increasingly more toxic with Iran, as open attacks almost resulted out of the hostilities. However, it is still very unclear whether it is possible for President-elect Biden to restore the JCPOA which could provide billions of dollars in sanctions. It is estimated to take months for Iran to grow compliant with the negotiations, and the introduction of new leaders in both respective countries seem crucial in the road to peace. Contrastingly, Israel, among other nations are expected to oppose the return of JCPOA, and were "hoping" for Trump's reelection, ensuring their rights to claim Jerusalem and make their illegal settlements permanent. Here, too, President-elect Biden could possible adopt the two-state solution and oppose the expansion of West Bank settlements. While it is unlikely for President-elect Biden to completely undo the works of the Trump administration, he most likely will attempt to please both parties, further condemning the relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem and reopening a consulate in East Jerusalem, in efforts to strengthen the diplomatic relations with Palestinians.
Sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-biden-trump-election/2020/11/08/34856586-1df0-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d_story.html
https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-iran-nuclear-deal-negotiate-jcpoa-44bee2ff-7fb4-446e-a24f-d7538bb30e1f.html
The transfer of "foreign powers reigns" from the Trump administration to Biden's will definately be an interesting transition. While it shouldn't be expected that US foreign policy will do a 180 in most situations, the way Trump handled many negotiations in the Middle East will likely be changed under Biden. Trump's views for the most part were very single-minded, especially when it came to the Isreal-Palestine conflict. Hopefully, under the elected Biden Administration it will choose to recognize the people on both sides of the issue, and not just focus on Israel as Trump chose to. However Palestinians have the right to remain skeptical in this change of power- as stated by Nabil Shaath, the special representative of President Mahmoud Abbas, “From what we heard from Joe Biden and his deputy Kamala Harris, I think he will be more balanced and less submissive to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – thus less harmful to us than Trump.” "Less harmful" does not mean that the Palestinians foresee any huge changes in US support for their people and the settlements. It would be pretty difficult to break down all the issues facing the Middle East and how Biden's future foreign policy will become involved, but hopefully it will lead to easing of many tensions across the globe.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/8/joe-biden-no-savior-to-the-palestinians
I find it interesting how constantly changing the American and foreign ties become when a new president is elected. Just from the perspective of Saudi Arabia, Obama and Trump both maintained close ties despite the public disapproval. In Obama's case, he denied the support of the brutal and violent endeavors while he was supposedly pro Saudi Arabia. In Trump's case, he has protected Prince Mohammed from congress. From what I know, ties between countries take many years to build, with Saudi Arabia. It began with he country's founding in 1932, and despite many people disapproving of the US's support due to many factors such as Saudi Arabia's brutal movements, the US has generally been on good terms with Saudi Arabia. Even after the 1973 oil embargo in response to the US siding with Israel, and even after the 9/11 attacks in which most of the terrorists convicted were from Saudi Arabia, the US continues to coddle the new country. But I believe that it will not take much for Biden to completly burn the bridge that has been created over many presidents. It is much easier to ruin ties than it is to make new ones. If Biden goes by his words, I predict support of Saudi Arabia will quickly fall and the general public will be satisfied.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/less-privileged-personal-how-u-s-saudi-ties-may-soon-n1247439
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/10/obama-saudi-arabia-trump-appeasement-coddle
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/middleeast/trump-biden-mideast-policy-analysis-intl/index.html
While Biden’s win does not promise large support for Palestinians in their conflict against Israelis, as Natalie said, it is likely that Biden will be less Israeli-biased than Trump in his approach. It will be interesting to see how Biden can reverse Trump’s unilateralism in “the deal of the century” to a two-state solution. Israeli Prime Minister Netanhayu may lose a lot of the ground he had gained through his strong relationship with Trump if Biden pushes for Palestinian considerations. What Biden will ultimately end up accomplish regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unclear, though, as it seems that it is much lower on the policy agenda compared to resolving issues related to the pandemic, for example.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/world/middleeast/biden-israel.html
One country that will not be affected by a Biden Presidency--Armenia. The US is so in kahoots with Turkey due to the strategic placement of military bases on their turf that they're willing to overlook the human rights abuses that Turkey commits against Armenians, Kurds, Assyrians, etc. President Obama promised to recognize the Armenian Genocide as a part of his campaign, earning him hundreds of thousands of Armenian votes. He did not follow through on his promise. Trump went as far as vetoing a bill that would recognize the Armenian Genocide. Because of this gross negligence, history repeat itself. Land that has belonged to native Armenia for centuries before Azerbaijan even existed has been stolen, pummeled to the ground by white phosphorus, maternity wards have been bombed, Turkey sent Syrian terrorists to fight against the native Armenians. After declaring victory, Azerbaijan burned down and desecrated thousand year old Armenian churches and exiles many Armenians from their homes. This cultural and ethnic cleansing won't stop with a Biden Admin.
The People have decided and Biden will become President, as of January 2021, and there's really nothing that Trump and his campaign can do to change that. No matter what hearsay or "evidence" there is, the People have choosen there President, and the transition needs to go smoothly, or else the People will wholeheartedly give up on the American system.
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