The second of Georgia’s Senate elections appears to be gearing towards a run-off, with Republican incumbent David Perdue facing Democratic challenger Jon Ossof in addition to the run-off for the other seat between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler.
In Georgia, when no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a run-off election is called between the two candidates who received the most votes. Georgia’s run-off system is contrary to what the majority of the states use: the plurality system. In theory, the run-off system ensures that the candidate elected to office is not opposed by a majority of the electorate, forcing the candidates in the run-off to appeal to a broader base of voters. In the plurality system, on the other hand, a candidate can win the seat without having to reach the majority threshold.
So far, Democrats have gained only one Senate seat. With the seats in North Carolina and Alaska leaning Republican, the two Senate seats in Georgia could make or break a Democratic majority in the Senate (assuming Kamala Harris will serve as the tie-breaker as Vice President). It is especially crucial because even if Biden wins, a Senate majority is necessary to pass legislation and enact policy agenda as well as to confirm Democratic executive and judicial appointees. Otherwise, with a Republican majority, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will likely block most of Biden’s initiatives; the ensuing divided government would be riddled with gridlock and the Biden administration would foreseeably struggle with enacting reform in the healthcare and tax systems, among others.
The Republican opposition to a potential Democrat Senate Majority touts the usual warnings of a “takeover” by “extremist liberals” who would distress the tax and policing system—despite the fact that Biden’s tax plan only targets “corporations and the wealthiest Americans” and that neither of the Democratic Senate candidates in Georgia propose “defunding the police.”
As the run-off elections will take place on January 5th, we will likely see millions of dollars going into heavy campaigning in Georgia over the next few months; Georgia is also the only state this year with both Senate seats up for election, so there were already extra eyes on Georgia to begin with. No doubt these campaigns will gain coverage on a national scale as the future of the country seemingly lies in these two seats.
Vox (goes deeper into actual history of GA’s runoff system)
5 comments:
According to the Associated Press, the Democratic Party has obtained 46 seats in the Senate while the Republican Party leads with 48 (as of right now). There are still ~3 seats that remain up in the air. This still leaves the major question: who will win the majority of the Senate? The New York Times, along with many other sources, is very much in line with your suggestion that the answer is left to the run-off elections that will take place in January. This for sure increases the stakes for both parties, so I'm interested to see how each party will spend and utilize their resources to gain a lead in Georgia next year. Additionally, another thing that I noticed is that who has a majority in the Senate is very important for the now president-elect of the United States, Joseph R. Biden. A senate with a Republican lead will make it hard for him to pass much of his policies and plans. Therefore, I wonder if he will also somehow endorse/pitch in to make sure that Democrats win the runoff elections. Another thing to note is that if Democrats do win the majority in the Senate, they will hold a majority in the House, the Senate, and there is a sitting Democrat as president. As we learnt in class, this makes the 2020 election a potential huge critical election which leads to party realignment for Democrats. Therefore, with all of these stakes, this will be interesting to follow for the next couple of months.
This kind of reminded me of the "Our Broken Constitution" reading. It's a little upsetting that the Senate has such a large impact on the efficacy of a president. Sure, the Senate can block policy decisions that are too rash or radical, but, like the reading described it, it's become a "graveyard for legislation," which potentially hinders growth and reform.
Also, Harbani's comment made me think about the remaining seats. Even if Democrats win all of those seats, they won't have the 51 seats needed for a majority (though, they would have more seats than Republicans. It's just a little weird because 2 seats belong to other parties). It seems to be pretty disheartening as someone who wants change; however, I'm not exactly sure how this will affect Biden's possible legislation attempts, as political gridlock seems to be pretty nuanced and I'm not very qualified to make predictions.
This run-off election will be one to watch, as it's results as mentioned by the previous commentators will likely impact the Senate majority/minority. This race is especially interesting as Georgia is leaning blue, but is one of the last states yet to be called by the Associated Press. It will be interesting to watch if Georgia is called in favor of Joe Biden, will this "blue wave" continue and support Ossoff in the run-off election. Another interesting aspect to watch- is whether the Democrats in Georgia will come out and support in the run-off as they did in the Presidential election. According to the WSJ, "A nonpartisan study of the history of runoffs in Georgia found that, going back to 1988, there have been seven statewide runoff elections. Democrats won only one of them—and that was more than 20 years ago, in 1998." If the Democrats do not turn out in strong numbers, the seat will go to Mr. Perdue, maintaining the Republican control of Georgia's senate seat.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/georgias-two-runoff-races-become-focus-for-senate-control-11604857077
In the past, Georgia hasn't voted Democrat since Bill Clinton, but with the surge of the newer younger black generation, key cities like Atlanta and other metropolitan areas managed to maintain the democratic votes. Especially since the House is a democratic majority, the Run-off Elections will in Georgia have a higher level of importance to control the legislature. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris being endorsed by Georgia is a good indicator that the probability of a democratic majority in the senate will be kept alive. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are the two current Republican Georgia senators and if the run-off election goes in favor of Republican, we will be seeing a seating change.
In response to Natalie, based on a more recent post by Ella about Stacey Abrams, I think that this "blue wave" will definitely be reinforced by the rise of organization surrounding voter registration for minority groups. The importance of representation in government has only increased with time; there is incredible disparity between the sentiments of our written law and what is enforced in practice in regards to the rights of our people, justice, and equality, and I think as long as the drive to actualize the ideals of our democracy and challenge the status-quo continues, we will eventually see change.
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