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| China and North Korea alliance propaganda from the 1950s |
An analysis of Chinese government attitudes towards its unruly nuclear neighbor, North Korea, has demonstrated shifting attitudes leaning in opposition against Pyongyang's continued aggravation of tension.
There was no end to the Korean War. After signing an armistice in 1953, both parties temporarily stopped fighting without declaring a winner. Supporting the South side was the US, whereas supporting the north side were China and Russia. For years after the Korean War armistice, China has been the main ally to North Korea and supplies more than 80% of North Korea's oil and other vital trade resources. Although the UN may agree to draft increasingly harsh sanctions on the North Korean regime, it is up to China to enforce these restrictions.
Yet recently with continued nuclear tests from North Korea, the global community has largely united in outrage against the rouge nation. Chinese government attitudes towards North Korea has soured, as the events serve to be an embarrassment to President Xi Jinping during global leader conferences such as the BRICS summit, which occurred hours after Pyongyang's most recent nuclear test of a bomb seven times as powerful as Hiroshima.
In this complex interplay of global events, China may be the only one left now with a true, direct ability to stifle the ambitions of the North Korean regime while incurring minimal civilian damages. The US could respond against North Korea with a pre-emptive strike, but doing so would likely invite retaliation from Pyongyang, which would bomb innocent civilians in Seoul, located only about 100 miles away. Yet the role of the Chinese government in this issue is nuanced as well; China would be very unhappy to see a collapse of the North Korean regime only to find a US ally right on its neighbor. As tensions continue to rise, instead of focusing only on US and North Korean inflammatory rhetoric, eyes around the globe ought to focus upon China as well, since China is the middleman that might be holding the keys to defusing of tensions.
Discussion Questions:
1. What should China prioritize- global security or national interests- in addressing the North Korean regime? What do you believe China will prioritize?
2. What can the United States do to advance its interests with respect to influencing Chinese government decisions?
Links:
China Grows Weary of Its Unruly Neighbor
Shift in China-North Korea Relations
3 comments:
We might desire that China will disregard their nation´s interests in order to solve the North Korean crisis, but it is unlikely they will actually do this. While, no country would desire having such a tyrannical regime next to them, the threat of a unified Korean Peninsula headed by a US allied government is worse. If America wants to get the support of China in this matter, they will have to offer something to China. The CCP is not altruistic, so if we wanted to them to purposely deteriorate their relations with North Korea, we will have to offer them something like the East or South China Sea.
Yes, it doesn't seem likely that China will support the effort to topple the Communist regime in North Korea. A South Korean controlled peninsula next to China would be seen as a threat, especially with US troops in the country. However, I think that China is beginning to realize the disastrous potential of the North Korean nuclear program, and may attempt to pressure them into slowing or stopping tests and production. And China's economic ties to the US is much stronger than to North Korea, so long term international politics may shift...
I obviously think China "Should" prioritize global interests, considering we are dealing with an unstable nuclear regime ruled by what is basically a child. However, China will likely only become agitated with North Korea and let it slide by. Likewise, I don't think that China will ever support the fall of their regime regardless of how much lunacy goes on in their country. This is due to their fear of the reunification of the Korean peninsula, led by the U.S. which I believe in their eyes is worse than having an unstable nuclear power next door. We may try to influence China to be harsher on them, and may be able to have some say due to our economic relations with the country, but I don't know if they would be willing to work with us. especially given the harsh criticisms of trump throughout his campaign and presidency.
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