On May 12, 2022, North Korea reported its first-ever COVID-19, and they go as far as to claim that this marks the nation's first infection ever. This is likely false, however, as despite North Korea’s secretive and private nature as a country, there have more than likely been cases within the country before now. It has also been confirmed that the Omicron variant is what has caused this recent outbreak. Many speculate that the only reason that this outbreak has hit international news is because of how it originated in Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital. Another point of evidence that people look to when supporting this idea is the fact that COVID-19 cases are labeled as “fevers” because North Korea lacks proper testing procedures and testing kits. Fifty people have been confirmed dead as of May 15, 2022, with many more speculated to come due to the country’s lackluster healthcare system. However, the true scale and scope of the original outbreak are unknown as of writing.
Part of why this outbreak is such large news is because almost all of North Korea’s citizens are completely unvaccinated. In fact, North Korea has declined multiple aid bundles that included vaccines. They rejected 3 million vaccines from China and another 2 million AstraZeneca vaccines over the course of the pandemic. These rejections have allegedly been over concerns about the vaccine's side effects. According to an infectious-disease expert at Seoul National University, it is too late into the outbreak at this point for vaccine distributions to make a large difference, and an estimated 34,000 people could die due to North Korea’s poor healthcare and an overall lack of resources.
While many parts of the country have gone into full lockdown, one sector of the country has not shifted much, the military. Shortly after the announcement of the outbreak, North Korea fired its 16th round of ballistic missiles into the ocean continuing its military efforts. The nation’s military has been accelerating missile tests for some time now. Shortly after the nation’s initial response to the outbreak did not go well, Kim Jon Un ordered the nation’s military to get involved with support efforts and even lambasted his own officials for an “irresponsible work attitude” in regards to how they handled the implementation of lockdown procedures.
Questions:
1. How do you see this outbreak going?
2. How much do you think will come out from this outbreak news-wise?
3. Do you think that this outbreak will make North Korea more accepting of foreign aid packages?
Sources:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-covid-kim-jong-un-rcna28949
11 comments:
I can't see this outbreak going well with the vaccination rate of the North Korean population. Especially with all the variants that may be transmitted through this easily-spread environment, I think it is only a matter of time before things go very South for the country. In fact, this outbreak may even have implications for the rest of the world; because of the high-transmissibility in such a low vaccinated environment (and especially because much of North Korea is impoverished and lacking access to proper medical care), variants may actually be created in the nation and spread to other parts of the world. This nation could become a variant "oven" of sorts, which poses a huge danger for the rest of the world.
Especially dangerous is the likelihood that much of this will not get out to international press. North Korea is infamous for their lack of news coverage in the nation. I think that unless the situation gets so bad that they need to ask for foreign aid, Kim Jong-un will hide any outbreak from the world. If the outbreak gets very bad, Kim Jong-un may be forced to accept a foreign aid package.
Given North Korea’s track record, I think they will be quite secretive about this outbreak. Anything that could be seen as a possible embarrassment to the government will likely be hidden. Unfortunately, I think this outbreak will likely have devastating effects, as previous disasters have had such as the famine that occurred in the 90s, because as Kim Jong Un’s government has demonstrated by refusing vaccines, I’m not sure they’d be willing to accept much help. However, in the 90s, they did accept international aid, so they might be willing to accept aid if they really need it.
The history of north Koreas government is how secretive it is, and from other information I have researched it aligned with your article, we are not going to see the total extent of how hard it is going to hit the citizens of north Korea. I dont think that this is going to be in the head lines for that long of a time, many situations like this are going to be over shadowed by the nucelar missile testing by the country, it will be in the spot light for a short amount of time. I dont think that north korea is going to accept foreign aide even after this out break, they have a history of refusing it. During a great famine in their country many citizens starved to death and little was done, and I dont think the government will do anything different. this is a tragedy for the people of north korea again, and the government doesnt seem to be doing much for them again
I think North Korea will eventually have to fold and accept aid if enough deaths. I think currently North Korea will downplay the number of deaths and keep focusing on the military, however once the number of dead becomes great enough I think North Korea may ask for aid from China, who will probably give North Korea more aid and possibly trying to increase their influence in the Korean area. However I doubt North Korea will take any kind of aid from any western countries as their policy has always been to distrust the west. I think North Korea will keep news about covid very restricted, with their citizens probably having little to no information on what to do about the virus. I can even see the possibility of North Korea trying to blame the US for the Virus reaching North Korea if the death toll cant be hidden.
I agree with Nathan, Thomas, and Freja. North Korea famously (or infamously) reveals little information about their country. The question is, why did they wait until now to come out with Covid-19 statistics? Khang Vu from The Interpreter argues that there may actually be a severe outbreak, but the announcement might be delayed. He mentions that the National April 15th Celebrations and Parades could have caused the outbreak, but the government did not want to ruin its image. Also, the announcement might be a subtle excuse for their "technical difficulties" with missile testing, Vu says. These arguments are all interesting. Obviously, it is hard to believe that the first case of Covid-19 in North Korea appeared in April 2022. That would be an unprecedented feat. Like we are seeing in the Bay Area right now, I think the outbreak will get worse and then it will go away. And then there will be another outbreak. And then it will go away. And then another. Then another. Then another! And another one! Then we're all dead.
Whoops.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/lies-damn-lies-and-north-korea-s-covid-statistics
I think that the outbreak will be bad for the coming weeks given that covid has likely spread to many people now who will begin to show symptoms in the coming days. However, given the authoritarian rule present within North Korea, it is likely that there could be lockdowns of the entire nation which can mitigate the spread of omicron amongst the population. The devastation may be terrible however given the unvaccinated status of the country due to their rejection of foreign vaccines, and it may be interesting to see whether this standpoint changes as people contract the virus (would they consider importing vaccines if it worsens)? Sadly, I don't believe that there will be any form of "concession" on the part of North Korea, and it is terrible that their continual focus on their military continues to come at the expense of their peoples' well being and safety.
I agree with Nicky, why would North Korea announce an outbreak to the world? On the surface, I would say that reporting an outbreak would be admitting weakness in the country. It breaks the idea that North Korea is a fortress, protected from the outside. It also makes no sense to make a public announcement to the international community, because they could just deal with the outbreak on their own, in secrecy. They clearly have not accepted any aid from anyone else either, which is a terrible because North Korea needs vaccines to fight the virus and does not have any of its own. Following the illusion of strength is what I would assume their strategy has been so far, which is why they did not report anything. Or, maybe they only developed enough infrastructure to test recently and were able to detect a large amount of cases in their country.
I think they might have revealed this information to continue the false pretense that they are a free nation that communicates with other countries. They reported an outbreak like any other country would, to make it look like they would have been honest all along, maybe to mask the fact that they had previous outbreak and did not report them. It also gives a national crisis for Kim Jong-Un to rally the people around and blame his officials for, and maybe blame the West for somehow.
I believe that because of the low vaccination levels along with the lack of resources and weak healthcare system, as cited in this post, the outbreak will continue to get worse. Vaccinations usually only work as a preventative measure, not really as a cure or “medication” for someone who is already infected with Covid. This means that even if North Korea takes international aid for vaccinations, it won’t help with the current outbreak. As for the new coverage of this outbreak, I think that it will be limited given North Korea’s past with the news and internet. As the others said, I think that North Korea is trying to keep up a strong appearance and hide how much Covid has affected its citizens.
I see the outbreak in the countryside going as any normal virus except with a much higher death rate, and the one reported covid death in the capital as being quarantined and used as propaganda to demonstrate how well North Korea is dealing with the virus. I think very little will come out from this outbreak news wise since North Korea is a closed off country with suspicion towards any travelers, and are actively denying obvious cases. From a journalism perspective it would likely cost more to do an update on what's going on then it’s worth. I think this outbreak would not make North Korea more open to accepting care packages since they don’t seem to care much about their citizens who live in constant fear of the government, and Kim Jong-un fears outside influence that could lead to a possible uprising.
This outbreak has the potential to spiral out of control. North Korea's refusal to accept vaccinations from other countries will cause the virus to spread rapidly and be contracted by many North Koreans. Coupled with its unwillingness and inability to disclose true figures regarding its caseload, we won't know the true extent of the number of deaths or people who get COVID. While the vaccination wouldn't help those who have already contracted COVID, it nonetheless would be an important precaution for non-infected people to take against contracting COVID. Though North Korea currently isn't accepting international aid, doing so would mitigate its cases.
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